The Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy takes a quantitative approach to analyzing the economic, budgetary, and distributional impact of important campaign, legislative, and other popular tax proposals using our dynamic Taxes and Growth (TAG) macroeconomic model.
The mission of our economic and tax modeling program is to educate lawmakers and the public about the key trade-offs in tax policy, the real-world impact of those trade-offs on taxpayers and our economy, and the best options for achieving principled and pro-growth tax reform.
In an attempt to provide a realistic, data-driven analysis of federal tax policy, the Tax Foundation has developed a General Equilibrium Model to simulate the effects of tax policies on the economy and on government revenues and budgets.
6 min read
Lawmakers should use the most comprehensive analytical tools available to them—like dynamic scoring—to make informed decisions about policy changes.
5 min read
The federal tax code remains a major source of frustration and controversy for Americans, and a hindrance to economic growth and opportunity. Other countries, such as Estonia, have proven that sufficient tax revenue can be collected in a less frustrating and more efficient way.
42 min read
The business tax changes originally introduced in the TCJA are scheduled to increase tax burdens on businesses at a time when economic headwinds and broader uncertainty are higher than they have been in decades.
12 min read
According to our analysis, President Biden’s budget would reduce long-run economic output by about 1.3 percent and eliminate 335,000 FTE jobs. See what tax policies the president is proposing.
17 min read
A robust collection of 70 potential US tax reform changes and US tax reform options for reforming the tax code. See the comprehensive tax reform guide.
A new study illustrates how overlooking an important element of the tax system—the structure of the tax base—can lead to an incomplete understanding of how tax reform impacts the economy.
4 min read
President Biden is calling for a third round of economic impact payments to households as part of his $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan. Under the plan, the payments would be $1,400 per person, topping off the recent round of $600 payments for a combined $2,000 per person. Senate Republicans have proposed payment amounts of $1,000 per individual and $500 per dependent, lower income thresholds, and faster phaseout rates.
5 min read
If we consider Biden’s tax plan over the entire budget window (2021 to 2030) as a percentage of GDP—1.30 percent—it would rank as the 6th largest tax increase since the 1940s and and one of the largest tax increases not associated with wartime funding.
6 min read
What has President Joe Biden proposed in terms of tax policy changes? Our experts provide the details and analyze the potential economic, revenue, and distributional impacts.
23 min read
Senators Ted Cruz and Martha McSally introduced the CREATE JOBS Act that would make two significant changes to incentivize investment in the United States.
3 min read
We estimate that moving to permanent full expensing and neutral cost recovery for structures would add more than 1 million full-time equivalent jobs to the long-run economy and boost the long-run capital stock by $4.8 trillion.
4 min read
By updating the tax code to allow developers to more fully cover their investments, construction costs will fall, which, in turn, means that federal affordable housing assistance dollars will go that much further in helping low-income tenants.
3 min read
Our analysis shows that the economic benefits of federal investment in productivity-enhancing infrastructure may be undercut by the negative effects of the financing of those investments, such as when the corporate income tax is increased.
6 min read
Based on the CBO’s assessment of the economic and budgetary effects of federal investment, lawmakers should look to spur private sector investment rather than try to enact a massive federal infrastructure bill.
5 min read
Discover why there are better and worse ways for governments to raise a dollar of revenue. Compare the economic impact of the three basic tax types—taxes on what you earn, buy, and own—including three specific taxes within each category. Learn about the basics of “dynamic scoring,” one tool economists can use to compare the economic and revenue impact of different tax policies.
As Congress and the White House consider ways to shore up the economy in the face of a public health crisis, President Trump has suggested suspending the entire payroll tax for the duration of the year. That would cost about $950 billion, according to our analysis.
6 min read
Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders have both released proposals to tax capital gains at ordinary income rates for the wealthiest Americans. As part of a broader platform to address income inequality, Biden and Sanders suggest increasing current capital gains rates on taxpayers with income over $1 million and $250,000, respectively.
21 min read
Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders have each proposed changes to the individual income tax, one of the largest sources of federal revenue. Our new analysis compares the economic, revenue, and distributional effects of the various proposals.
13 min read
As policymakers evaluate changes to the tax code, such as proposals coming from presidential candidates and the White House, it will be important for them to evaluate the relative effects of various provisions. According to our analysis, making full expensing permanent would be one of the most efficient ways to increase after-tax incomes for the middle class.
3 min read
2020 Democratic presidential candidates have proposed various changes to the corporate income tax, which includes increasing the rate, ranging from 25 percent to 35 percent, imposing a corporate surtax or a minimum tax, and lengthening depreciation schedules.
17 min read
New modeling finds that the wealth taxes proposed by Sen. Warren and Sen. Sanders would raise significantly less revenue than promised, face serious administrative and compliance challenges, and would increase foreign ownership of U.S. capital.
38 min read
