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Economic and Tax Modeling

The Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy takes a quantitative approach to analyzing the economic, budgetary, and distributional impact of important campaign, legislative, and other popular tax proposals using our dynamic Taxes and Growth (TAG) macroeconomic model.

The mission of our economic and tax modeling program is to educate lawmakers and the public about the key trade-offs in tax policy, the real-world impact of those trade-offs on taxpayers and our economy, and the best options for achieving principled and pro-growth tax reform.

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A History and Analysis of Payroll Tax Holidays

As Congress and the White House consider ways to shore up the economy in the face of a public health crisis, President Trump has suggested suspending the entire payroll tax for the duration of the year. That would cost about $950 billion, according to our analysis.

6 min read

Analysis of Capital Gains Tax Proposals Among Democratic Presidential Candidates

Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders have both released proposals to tax capital gains at ordinary income rates for the wealthiest Americans. As part of a broader platform to address income inequality, Biden and Sanders suggest increasing current capital gains rates on taxpayers with income over $1 million and $250,000, respectively.

21 min read
Inflation Reduction Act corporate taxes most economically damaging way to raise revenue Raise the corporate tax rate, raise corporate tax rate, corporate tax hike, corporate tax increase, corporate tax burden

Comparing the Growth and Income-Boosting Effects of Tax Reform Options

As policymakers evaluate changes to the tax code, such as proposals coming from presidential candidates and the White House, it will be important for them to evaluate the relative effects of various provisions. According to our analysis, making full expensing permanent would be one of the most efficient ways to increase after-tax incomes for the middle class.

3 min read
American Rescue Plan state tax cuts, American Rescue Plan tax cuts State Unemployment Compensation Trust Funds, Elizabeth Warren wealth tax, Some tax hikes are more damaging than others, according to Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and new Tax Foundation economic modeling.

Analysis of Sen. Warren and Sen. Sanders’ Wealth Tax Plans

New modeling finds that the wealth taxes proposed by Sen. Warren and Sen. Sanders would raise significantly less revenue than promised, face serious administrative and compliance challenges, and would increase foreign ownership of U.S. capital.

38 min read
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An Analysis of Senator Warren’s ‘Real Corporate Profits Tax’

Sen. Elizabeth Warren introduced a 7 percent surtax on corporate profits called the “Real Corporate Profits Tax.” We estimate that this tax would reduce the incentive to invest in the United States, and result in a 1.9 percent smaller economy, a 3.3 percent smaller capital stock, and 1.5 percent lower wages. The surtax would raise $872 billion between 2020 and 2029 on a conventional basis and $476 billion on a dynamic basis. The tax would make the tax code more progressive, but it would fall on taxpayers in every income group.

9 min read
Wyden 199a pass-through deduction proposal Democrats proposed to expand child tax credit as part of covid relief package. Analysis of the “SALT Act” state and local tax deduction cap, Restoring Tax Fairness to States and Localities Act, SALT cap repeal, eliminate SALT cap

Analysis of the “SALT Act”

Lawmakers recently introduced a bill to repeal the $10,000 cap on the state and local deduction (SALT) and raise the top tax rate on ordinary income from 37 percent to 39.6 percent.

4 min read
Analysis of the Cost-of-Living Refund Act of 2019 Sherrod Brown Ro Khanna EITC expansion low-income tax credit

Analysis of the Cost-of-Living Refund Act of 2019

We estimate that a new proposal to expand the EITC would reduce federal revenue by $1.8 trillion and decrease long-run GDP by 0.29 percent, while boosting labor force participation for low-income tax filers by 822,788 full-time equivalent jobs.

10 min read