The Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy takes a quantitative approach to analyzing the economic, budgetary, and distributional impact of important campaign, legislative, and other popular tax proposals using our General Equilibrium Model, known as our Taxes and Growth (TAG) Model.
The mission of our economic and tax modeling program is to educate lawmakers and the public about the key trade-offs in tax policy, the real-world impact of those trade-offs on taxpayers and our economy, and the best options for achieving principled and pro-growth tax reform.
The Tax Foundation uses and maintains a General Equilibrium Model, known as our Taxes and Growth (TAG) Model to simulate the effects of government tax and spending policies on the economy and on government revenues and budgets.
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The Tax Foundation models tax policy using our proprietary Taxes and Growth model, illustrating the economic, revenue, and distributional impacts of different changes to the federal tax code. We’ve recently implemented improvements to the model that have been underway for the past several years, and we will be detailing them further in our forthcoming model methodology update.
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This tax reform plan would boost long-run GDP by 2.5%, grow wages by 1.4%, and add 1.3M jobs, all while collecting a similar amount of tax revenue as the current code and reducing the long-run debt burden.
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Policymakers should have two priorities in the upcoming economic policy debates: a larger economy and fiscal responsibility. Principled, pro-growth tax policy can help accomplish both.
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A robust collection of 70 potential US tax reform changes and US tax reform options for reforming the tax code. See the comprehensive tax reform guide.
Lawmakers should use the most comprehensive analytical tools available to them—like dynamic scoring—to make informed decisions about policy changes.
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Our recent policy conference brought together academics and political leaders to present research on some of the most pressing issues in global tax policy and to discuss solutions that can unlock genuine global growth.
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The overall U.S. tax and transfer system is overwhelmingly progressive, and understanding the extent—and source—of that progressivity is essential for lawmakers considering the trade-offs associated with each tax policy decision.
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According to our analysis, President Biden’s budget would reduce long-run economic output by about 1.3 percent and eliminate 335,000 FTE jobs. See what tax policies the president is proposing.
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President Biden’s new budget proposal outlines several major tax increases targeted at businesses and high-income individuals that would bring U.S. income tax rates far out of step with international norms.
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Lawmakers should use the most comprehensive analytical tools available to them—like dynamic scoring—to make informed decisions about policy changes.
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If bonus depreciation is allowed to phase out, then the tax bias against capital investments will increase, discouraging firms from making otherwise profitable investments.
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The tax treatment of research and development (R&D) expenses is one of the biggest issues facing Congress as the year winds down.
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History is clear. Lowering budget deficits via spending restraint frees resources for additional private output and jobs. Lowering them by raising taxes on business investment and labor services makes it harder to dis-inflate without a recession.
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As we near this year’s “lame duck” session of Congress, there has been renewed interest in reforming the child tax credit as part of a tax deal. Our new analysis highlights the trade-offs that policymakers will face
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The business tax changes originally introduced in the TCJA are scheduled to increase tax burdens on businesses at a time when economic headwinds and broader uncertainty are higher than they have been in decades.
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We find that the dynamic cost of permanent bonus depreciation rises by about 7 percent under 4 percent inflation, but the economic benefit, measured by the size of the economy, rises by about 25 percent.
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For many years, the UK has adopted a strikingly ungenerous approach to capital cost recovery – the ability of firms to write off investment against tax. This has coincided with consistently low levels of business investment. The super-deduction, which has temporarily made the UK tax system much more supportive of capital investment in plant and machinery is set to expire.
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The Section 232 tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum raised the cost of production for manufacturers, reducing employment in those industries, raising prices for consumers, and hurting exports.
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If ever there was a paycheck protection program, defending people from bracket creep may be the most important one ever designed.
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The phaseout of 100 percent bonus depreciation, scheduled to take place after the end of 2022, will increase the after-tax cost of investment in the U.S. Permanently extending it would increase long-run economic output by 0.4 percent and increase employment by 73,000 FTE jobs.
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In dollar terms, the industries that would account for the largest book minimum tax liabilities are manufacturing, at $73.2 billion, followed by finance, insurance, and management at $46.9 billion.
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How will the Inflation Reduction Act taxes impact inflation, economic growth, tax revenue, and everyday taxpayers? See Inflation Reduction Act tax changes.
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While exempting accelerated depreciation from the book minimum tax would reduce some of the economic harm of the tax, there remain many unresolved problems within the design and structure of the tax that make it a poorly chosen revenue option.
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Research has shown that spikes in tax rates can act as barriers to upward mobility. High marginal tax rates might directly influence the decisions workers make about accepting a raise, working additional hours, or whether they might remain on government benefits.
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Our new analysis reviews the basic structure of carbon taxes, how they compare to the existing set of climate policies, and how they could fit into various pro-growth tax reform packages.
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