Taxes, Fiscal Policy, and Inflation
Consumer prices rose by 7 percent in 2021, the highest annual rate of inflation since 1982. Where did this inflation come from and what might its impacts be? Tax and fiscal policy offer important clues.
Not only does inflation resemble a tax, it impacts taxes, too. Inflation can push taxpayers into higher income tax brackets or reduce the value of tax credits, deductions, and exemptions. This is known as bracket creep, which results in an increase in income taxes without an increase in real income.
Consumer prices rose by 7 percent in 2021, the highest annual rate of inflation since 1982. Where did this inflation come from and what might its impacts be? Tax and fiscal policy offer important clues.
While hoping for inflation’s continued decline, policymakers should finish the job and index the tax code to prepare for future bouts of high inflation and as a contingency in case it takes longer to defeat elevated inflation than expected.
Inflation is often called a hidden tax, but in many states it yields a far more literal tax increase as tax brackets fail to adjust for changes in consumer purchasing power.
Michiganders will pay a lower individual income tax rate next year thanks to high general fund revenues, but these savings may be short-lived following an opinion released by the state’s attorney general.
At a moment when countries are trying to make production more environmentally friendly and shore up supply chain weaknesses, capital investment is critical. Rather than adopt temporary policies that phase out and expire, policymakers should focus their efforts on long-term reforms to support investment.
The Portuguese government has introduced plans to exempt “essential” food items from its value-added tax (VAT) in response to the recent inflation spike. While this may sound like a reasonable measure on the surface, it comes with numerous unintended consequences that compromise its effectiveness.
A recently enacted bill in Mississippi made the Magnolia State only the second state in the country to make full expensing permanent. The bill joins reductions to the individual income tax and capital stock tax rates, already in progress, as model, pro-growth reforms for the region.
While hoping for inflation’s continued decline, policymakers should finish the job and index the tax code to prepare for future bouts of high inflation and as a contingency in case it takes longer to defeat elevated inflation than expected.
Forty-three states adopted tax relief in 2021 or 2022—often in both years—and of those, 21 cut state income tax rates. It’s been a remarkable trend, driven by robust state revenues and an increasingly competitive tax environment.
At the end of 2022, prices were 14.6 percent higher than they were two years prior. That’s the fastest inflation rate over any two calendar years since the stagflation era of the late 1970s. State policymakers are understandably interested in bringing any tools at their disposal to bear on the problem. And many of them are reaching for tax policy solutions.
By shifting to a flat income tax, Georgia has already made an important commitment to tax competitiveness. Although the state’s top rate threshold is already very low, a true single-rate income tax will help protect taxpayers from inflation-related tax increases and provide a buffer against rising tax rates in the future. To combine responsible rate reductions with these benefits, Georgia should create tax triggers that empower the state to keep pace with its competition.
In a coordinated effort, lawmakers in seven states that collectively house about 60 percent of the nation’s wealth—California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, New York, and Washington—are introducing wealth tax legislation on Thursday.
History is clear. Lowering budget deficits via spending restraint frees resources for additional private output and jobs. Lowering them by raising taxes on business investment and labor services makes it harder to dis-inflate without a recession.