Budget Reconciliation: Tracking the 2025 Trump Tax Cuts
Our experts are providing the latest details and analysis of proposed federal tax policy changes.
10 min read
Featured Articles
Expiring TCJA Tax Provisions in 2026 Would Produce Substantial Tax Hike across the US
At the end of 2025, the individual tax provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) expire all at once. Without congressional action, most taxpayers will see a notable tax increase relative to current policy in 2026.
4 min read
Tax Calculator: How the TCJA’s Expiration Will Affect You
Unless Congress acts, Americans are in for a tax hike in 2026.
3 min read
“Big Beautiful Bill” House GOP Tax Plan: Preliminary Details and Analysis
Our preliminary analysis finds the tax provisions included in the May 12 text would increase long-run GDP by 0.6 percent and reduce federal tax revenue by $4.0 trillion from 2025 through 2034 on a conventional basis before added interest costs.
7 min read
House Tax Package Could Double Economic Growth Impact by Prioritizing Permanence for TCJA Business Provisions
As the current tax package stands, the House’s use of temporary policy is leaving most of the economic growth opportunities on the table.
2 min read
Expensing: It Pays to Be Permanent
As lawmakers work through the reconciliation process, permanently enacting improvements to deductions for capital investment and research and development (R&D) costs will create an economically powerful package.
8 min read
How 2026 Tax Brackets Would Change if the TCJA Expires
If Congress allows the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) to expire as scheduled, most aspects of the individual income tax would undergo substantial changes, resulting in more than 62 percent of tax filers experiencing tax increases in 2026.
3 min read
Making the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Permanent: Economic, Revenue, and Distributional Effects
Permanently extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would boost long-run economic output by 1.1 percent, the capital stock by 0.7 percent, wages by 0.5 percent, and hours worked by 847,000 full-time equivalent jobs.
6 min read
House GOP’s Approach to the IRA Clean Energy Tax Credits: Five Things to Know
Tax simplification has two aspects. The first is a code without a mess of targeted provisions for various social policy goals. The second is a code with provisions that are simple and easy to comply with. The bill succeeds at the first, but fails at the second.
7 min read
Four Paths for Inflation Reduction Act Reforms
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) introduced a series of new targeted tax breaks, many of which seem to be much more expensive than originally forecasted. Understandably, repealing these subsidies is a key option for policymakers looking to pay to extend the expiring broader tax cuts passed in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
7 min read
Considering Potential International Corporate Tax Reforms in the US
Tax legislation in 2025 may have good reason to address international corporate income taxes, because of scheduled changes slated to go into effect or because of international developments like the Pillar Two agreement.
63 min read
Cleaning Up the Tax Code Could Raise Trillions for Tax Reform
As Republicans look for ways to offset the budgetary cost of extending the expiring provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and potentially enacting other tax cuts, the latest estimates indicate several trillion dollars could be raised by reducing tax credits and other preferences in the tax code.
5 min read
All About That Base(line)
If lawmakers are serious about pro-growth policies and fiscal responsibility, they will need to put policies forward that achieve those goals. Simply adjusting the baseline doesn’t reduce actual deficits in the coming years.
7 min read
Growth Should Be a Key Consideration if Corporate SALT Is Limited
Lawmakers should prioritize pro-growth tax policies and use the least economically damaging offsets to make the legislation fiscally responsible. If lawmakers choose to use C-SALT, they should carefully consider the economic trade-off with permanent, pro-growth tax cuts that support investment and innovation in the US.
7 min read
Questions About Tax Cuts, Tariffs, and Reconciliation After the Election
Fiscal pressures are likely to weigh heavily on lawmakers as they craft a tax reform package. That increased pressure could result in well-designed tax reform that prioritizes economic growth, simplicity, and stability, or it could encourage budget gimmicks and economically harmful offsets. Lawmakers should avoid the latter.
8 min read
Behind the Numbers: Budget Shenanigans and the National Debt
What happens to your taxes when the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expires on January 1, 2026? In this episode, we explore the potential tax hikes facing millions of Americans and the debate over measuring the budgetary impacts of extending tax cuts.
Picking the Right Budgetary Offsets Key to Tax Reform Success
In a perilous economic and fiscal environment, with instability created by Trump’s trade war and publicly held debt on track to surpass the highest levels ever recorded within five years, a lot rides on how Republicans navigate tax and spending reforms in reconciliation.
6 min read
Congressional Policymakers Should Tread Carefully When Weighing New Corporate SALT Deduction Limits
While capping C-SALT has superficial appeal in perceived parity with personal limits, it rests on flawed assumptions about the nature of individual and corporate income taxes.
7 min read
House Budget Resolution Aims to Balance Tax Cut and Spending Reduction Goals
The House Budget Committee has released a budget resolution that specifies large reductions in both taxes and spending over the next decade, paving the way to extend the expiring provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and potentially cut other taxes.
6 min read
New Study Finds TCJA Strongly Boosted Corporate Investment
The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) was the largest corporate tax reform in a generation, lowering the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent, temporarily allowing full expensing for short-lived assets (referred to as bonus depreciation), and overhauling the international tax code.
6 min read
Tax Reform Offsets Shouldn’t Offset Economic Growth
Pro-growth tax reform that does not add to the deficit will require tough choices, but whether to raise the corporate tax rate is not one of them. If lawmakers want to craft fiscally responsible and pro-growth tax reform, a higher corporate tax rate simply does not fit into the puzzle.
3 min read
Will Your Taxes Go Up? Best- and Worst-case Scenarios for Tax Reform in 2025
What will the future of tax policy look like? In this episode, we dive into the critical challenges and opportunities looming on the horizon, especially with major tax cuts set to expire, which could increase taxes for 62 percent of filers.
New Efforts on Taxing Endowments Raise Questions on Neutrality and Revenue Collection
Republican policymakers in Congress are considering options to raise revenue as part of their expected legislative package in 2025. One such option involves raising the tax rate on university endowments first put in place as part of the TCJA in 2017.
4 min read
Video: Tax Reform Is More Than Just the Rate
Tax policy is almost always a balancing act between the tax rate – how much someone pays – and the tax base – who or what is being taxed.
All Related Articles
New Efforts on Taxing Endowments Raise Questions on Neutrality and Revenue Collection
Republican policymakers in Congress are considering options to raise revenue as part of their expected legislative package in 2025. One such option involves raising the tax rate on university endowments first put in place as part of the TCJA in 2017.
4 min read
Behind the Numbers: Budget Shenanigans and the National Debt
What happens to your taxes when the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expires on January 1, 2026? In this episode, we explore the potential tax hikes facing millions of Americans and the debate over measuring the budgetary impacts of extending tax cuts.
All About That Base(line)
If lawmakers are serious about pro-growth policies and fiscal responsibility, they will need to put policies forward that achieve those goals. Simply adjusting the baseline doesn’t reduce actual deficits in the coming years.
7 min read
Questions About Tax Cuts, Tariffs, and Reconciliation After the Election
Fiscal pressures are likely to weigh heavily on lawmakers as they craft a tax reform package. That increased pressure could result in well-designed tax reform that prioritizes economic growth, simplicity, and stability, or it could encourage budget gimmicks and economically harmful offsets. Lawmakers should avoid the latter.
8 min read
Blog
Short FormSpace Race and the Cost of Industrial Policy
Project Apollo achieved its clear objective to put a man on the moon. But not all government spending projects are so simple (that is, if you consider flying a spaceship to the moon simple).
3 min read
Expiring TCJA Tax Provisions in 2026 Would Produce Substantial Tax Hike across the US
At the end of 2025, the individual tax provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) expire all at once. Without congressional action, most taxpayers will see a notable tax increase relative to current policy in 2026.
4 min read
Tax Calculator: How the TCJA’s Expiration Will Affect You
Unless Congress acts, Americans are in for a tax hike in 2026.
3 min read
Who Gets Hit by the Inflation Reduction Act Book Minimum Tax?
In dollar terms, the industries that would account for the largest book minimum tax liabilities are manufacturing, at $73.2 billion, followed by finance, insurance, and management at $46.9 billion.
6 min read
Details & Analysis of the Inflation Reduction Act Tax Provisions
How will the Inflation Reduction Act taxes impact inflation, economic growth, tax revenue, and everyday taxpayers? See Inflation Reduction Act tax changes.
12 min read
Minimum Book Tax: Flawed Revenue Source, Penalizes Pro-Growth Cost Recovery
While exempting accelerated depreciation from the book minimum tax would reduce some of the economic harm of the tax, there remain many unresolved problems within the design and structure of the tax that make it a poorly chosen revenue option.
3 min read
Reminder that Corporate Taxes Are the Most Economically Damaging Way to Raise Revenue
In the rush to pass the Inflation Reduction Act, which features an ill-conceived tax on the book income of U.S. corporations, it is worth reminding policymakers of a well-established finding in the economic literature.
3 min read
It Would Be a Mistake to Resurrect Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax
The Inflation Reduction Act may be smaller than the proposed Build Back Better legislation from 2021, but both sets of legislation propose a reintroduced corporate alternative minimum tax (AMT). The 30-year experience with a corporate AMT shows it is not a good solution.
4 min read
How Does the Inflation Reduction Act Minimum Tax Compare to Global Minimum Tax?
Over the course of the last year, it has become clear that Democratic lawmakers want to change U.S. tax rules for large companies. However, as proposals have been debated in recent months, there are have been clear divides between U.S. proposals and the global minimum tax rules.
6 min read
The Inflation Reduction Act, What to Know
The Inflation Reduction Act would raise taxes on corporations and top earners with the goal of funding a number of programs to reduce carbon emissions, address prescription drug costs, and spur the economy. Garrett Watson joins Jesse Solis to talk through what these tax changes would mean for the economy: Will they reduce inflation, and do they break the President’s pledge not to raise taxes on those earning less than $400,000?
Push for Higher Taxes Is Misguided During a Time of Inflation and Looming Recession
Some 40 years ago, the U.S. dealt with high inflation and slow economic growth. Then as now, the solution is a long-term focus on stronger economic growth and sustainable federal budgets.
5 min read
Lawmakers Revive Prescription Drug Pricing Policies and 1,900% Excise Tax
While the bulk of the proposed tax increases and spending programs remain under debate, Democratic lawmakers have reportedly agreed on prescription drug pricing provisions as a starting point for a revived Build Back Better package.
3 min read
Biden’s FY 2023 Budget Would Result in $4 Trillion of Gross Revenue Increases
President Biden’s budget proposes several new tax increases on high-income individuals and businesses, which combined with the Build Back Better plan would give the U.S. the highest top tax rates on individual and corporate income in the developed world.
5 min read
Gift or Lump of Coal: U.S. Cross-border Tax Changes Won’t Be Home for Christmas
As 2021 comes to a close, countries are moving toward harmonizing tax rules for multinationals, but stalled talks on the Build Back Better Act in the United States means new uncertainties for a global agreement and for taxpayers.
5 min read
Permanent Build Back Better Act Would Likely Require Large Tax Increases on the Middle Class
Policymakers and taxpayers should understand the scope of tax changes necessary to fully pay for the large-scale social spending programs that would be initiated under the Build Back Better Act.
6 min read