Budget Reconciliation: Tracking the 2025 Trump Tax Cuts
Our experts are providing the latest details and analysis of proposed federal tax policy changes.
10 min read
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Since 2012, we have used our Taxes and Growth (TAG) macroeconomic model to analyze dozens of legislative and campaign tax proposals, including every major tax plan put forth during the 2016 presidential campaigns, the House GOP’s 2016 Tax Reform Blueprint, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and President Biden’s tax reform agenda. See Our Economic and Tax Modeling
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Cost Recovery | Taxes & Inflation | Taxes on Savers & Investors | Carbon Taxes
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Making the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Permanent: Economic, Revenue, and Distributional Effects
Permanently extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would boost long-run economic output by 1.1 percent, the capital stock by 0.7 percent, wages by 0.5 percent, and hours worked by 847,000 full-time equivalent jobs.
6 min read
Trump Tariffs: Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War
The tariffs amount to an average tax increase of nearly $1,200 per US household in 2025.
33 min read
Tax Calculator: How the TCJA’s Expiration Will Affect You
Unless Congress acts, Americans are in for a tax hike in 2026.
3 min read
Expiring TCJA Tax Provisions in 2026 Would Produce Substantial Tax Hike across the US
At the end of 2025, the individual tax provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) expire all at once. Without congressional action, most taxpayers will see a notable tax increase relative to current policy in 2026.
4 min read
Options for Navigating the 2025 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Expirations
Policymakers should have two priorities in the upcoming economic policy debates: a larger economy and fiscal responsibility. Principled, pro-growth tax policy can help accomplish both.
21 min read
A Tax Reform Plan for Growth and Opportunity: Details & Analysis
This tax reform plan would boost long-run GDP by 2.5%, grow wages by 1.4%, and add 1.3M jobs, all while collecting a similar amount of tax revenue as the current code and reducing the long-run debt burden.
38 min read
The Unsustainable US Debt Course and Impacts of Potential Tax Changes
Given the poor state of the budget process and worsening debt trajectory, lawmakers should move boldly and quickly to address the issue, including via a fiscal commission process. Issues to consider should include reforms to both spending and taxes.
42 min read
Risks to the U.S. Tax Base from Pillar Two
A growing international tax agreement known as Pillar Two presents two new threats to the U.S. tax base: potential lost revenue and limitations on Congress’s ability to set its own tax policy.
39 min readAll Related Articles
700 Results
Biden Administration Changes to GILTI and FDII Will Yield Automatic State Tax Increases
State taxation of GILTI is unconventional and economically uncompetitive and will become even more so if the federal government adopts a more aggressive approach to taxing GILTI, as outlined in the American Jobs Plan Act.
29 min read
Reviewing Recent Evidence of the Effect of Taxes on Economic Growth
With the Biden administration proposing a variety of new taxes, it is worth revisiting the literature on how taxes, particularly on corporate and individual income, can impact economic growth.
9 min read
Details and Analysis of Tax Proposals in President Biden’s American Families Plan
The Biden administration’s proposed American Families Plan includes several major tax changes. Explore the tax proposals in the American Families Plan.
10 min read
Effects of Proposed International Tax Changes on U.S. Multinationals
The international corporate tax changes in President Biden’s tax plan would increase tax rates on domestic income more than on foreign income, resulting in a net increase in profit shifting out of the US, according to our Multinational Tax Model.
33 min read
Modernizing Rental Car and Peer-to-Peer Car Sharing Taxes for a Post-Pandemic Future
The economic evidence shows that travelers and tourists are sensitive to price changes for rental cars and adjust their behavior to avoid the tax, harming state economies and the travel sector right as the industry is trying to recover from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic.
30 min read
Reviewing the Federal Tax Treatment of Research & Development Expenses
Simplifying the R&D credit, making it more accessible for smaller firms, and ensuring full cost recovery for R&D expenses by canceling the upcoming R&D amortization are three things policymakers should consider when trying to improve the tax code for R&D.
40 min read