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Evaluating U.S. Tax Reform Options & Trade-Offs

The economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic poses a triple challenge for tax policy in the United States. Lawmakers are tasked with crafting a policy response that will accelerate the economic recovery, reduce the mounting deficit, and protect the most vulnerable.

To assist lawmakers in navigating the challenge, and to help the American public understand the tax changes being proposed, the Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy modeled how 70 potential changes to the tax code would affect the U.S. economy, distribution of the tax burden, and federal revenue.

In tax policy there is an ever-present trade-off among how much revenue a tax will raise, who bears the burden of a tax, and what impact a tax will have on economic growth. Armed with the information in our new book, Options for Reforming America’s Tax Code 2.0, policymakers can debate the relative merits and trade-offs of each option to improve the tax code in a post-pandemic world.

Biden capital gains tax rates, Biden capital gains tax proposal. Compare combined capital gains rates under Biden tax plan fv3-01

Top Combined Capital Gains Tax Rates Would Average 48 Percent Under Biden’s Tax Plan

The top federal rate on capital gains would be 43.4 percent under Biden’s tax plan (when including the net investment income tax). Rates would be even higher in many U.S. states due to state and local capital gains taxes, leading to a combined average rate of over 48 percent compared to about 29 percent under current law.

3 min read
Raising the corporate rate would reduce GDP by $720 billion Tax Foundation analysis. More on Biden’s proposal to increase the corporate tax rate to 28 percent (higher corporate income tax impact)

Raising the Corporate Rate to 28 Percent Reduces GDP by $720 Billion Over Ten Years

The Options guide presents the economic effects we estimate would occur in the long term, or 20 to 30 years from now, but we can also use our model to show the cumulative effects of the policy change—providing more context, for instance, about how the effects of a higher corporate income tax rate compound over time, which we estimate would reduce GDP by a cumulative $720 billion over the next 10 years.

4 min read
Spain Recovery Plan Tax Hikes 2020 Spanish Regional Tax Competitiveness Index, Spain economic recovery, Spain recovery budget, Spain recovery plan

More Tax Hikes Than Investment Projects?

Tax hikes implemented in the near term might undermine Spain’s economic recovery. Spain should focus on implementing tax reforms that have the potential to stimulate economic recovery by supporting private investment and employment while increasing its internal and international tax competitiveness.

5 min read