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Evaluating U.S. Tax Reform Options & Trade-Offs

The economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic poses a triple challenge for tax policy in the United States. Lawmakers are tasked with crafting a policy response that will accelerate the economic recovery, reduce the mounting deficit, and protect the most vulnerable.

To assist lawmakers in navigating the challenge, and to help the American public understand the tax changes being proposed, the Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy modeled how 70 potential changes to the tax code would affect the U.S. economy, distribution of the tax burden, and federal revenue.

In tax policy there is an ever-present trade-off among how much revenue a tax will raise, who bears the burden of a tax, and what impact a tax will have on economic growth. Armed with the information in our new book, Options for Reforming America’s Tax Code 2.0, policymakers can debate the relative merits and trade-offs of each option to improve the tax code in a post-pandemic world.

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5 Things to Consider in the Tax Gap Discussion

Increasing tax compliance is a major part of the Biden administration proposal to raise revenue for physical and social infrastructure. Reducing the tax gap—the difference between taxes owed and taxes paid—is a good way to raise revenue, but it doesn’t come without trade-offs, and it’s important to go about it in the right way.

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SALT cap repeal, State and local tax deduction cap repeal (state and local tax cap). Repealing the cap on the State and Local Tax Deduction would be regressive and mainly benefit the wealthy SALT deduction cap, House Ways and Means Committee testimony, impact of limiting SALT deduction, SALT deduction cap, State and Local Tax Deduction cap

Paying for Reconciliation Bill with “Health Care Savings” Threatens Medical Innovation

One of the ways lawmakers intend to pay for $3.5 trillion of new spending in the budget reconciliation package is by creating “health care savings.” The leading proposal to achieve this is H.R. 3, the Elijah Cummings Lower Drug Costs Now Act, which would change the way that prescription drug prices are negotiated under Medicare Part D.

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International Tax Proposals and Profit Shifting

There are many ways the U.S.’s international tax rules could be changed, reformed, improved, or worsened. Reflexively jacking up taxes on U.S. multinationals does not necessarily accomplish the goal of reducing or eliminating profit shifting, and it would in fact worsen it.

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Claiming 97 Percent of Small Businesses Exempt from Biden Taxes Is Misleading. Fact-checking claim that 97 percent of small businesses wont pay income taxes under Biden tax plan

Claiming 97 Percent of Small Businesses Exempt from Biden Taxes Is Misleading

The Biden administration recently cited an analysis from Treasury claiming that “the President’s agenda will protect 97 percent of small business owners from income tax rate increases.” However, the figure is misleading. To assess the economic effect of higher marginal tax rates, it matters how much income or investment will be affected—not how many taxpayers.

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Biden tax compliance plan to improve IRS funding and tax enforcement to improve tax collection

Considering Trade-offs to Improving Tax Collections

Recent Biden administration proposals rely heavily on revenue from better IRS tax collections to fund spending initiatives. The American Families Plan uses several avenues to reduce the tax gap (or the difference between taxes paid and taxes owed), from increasing the IRS’s tax enforcement budget to improving information technology and expanding reporting requirements.

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Wyden 199a pass-through deduction proposal Democrats proposed to expand child tax credit as part of covid relief package. Analysis of the “SALT Act” state and local tax deduction cap, Restoring Tax Fairness to States and Localities Act, SALT cap repeal, eliminate SALT cap

Analysis of Sen. Wyden’s Pass-through Deduction Proposal

Sen. Wyden recently introduced the Small Business Tax Fairness Act—the impact of which we modeled—to reform the Section 199A pass-through business deduction created in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017. The provision currently allows taxpayers to deduct up to 20 percent of their qualified business income from their taxable income, subject to certain limitations.

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