The economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic poses a triple challenge for tax policy in the United States. Lawmakers are tasked with crafting a policy response that will accelerate the economic recovery, reduce the mounting deficit, and protect the most vulnerable.
To assist lawmakers in navigating the challenge, and to help the American public understand the tax changes being proposed, the Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy modeled how 70 potential changes to the tax code would affect the U.S. economy, distribution of the tax burden, and federal revenue.
In tax policy there is an ever-present trade-off among how much revenue a tax will raise, who bears the burden of a tax, and what impact a tax will have on economic growth. Armed with the information in our new book, Options for Reforming America’s Tax Code 2.0, policymakers can debate the relative merits and trade-offs of each option to improve the tax code in a post-pandemic world.
Bonus Depreciation Helps Disadvantaged Workers, Study Finds
Low-skilled workers have been the hardest hit by the pandemic-induced economic slowdown. When deciding on bonus depreciation, which is currently set to expire in 2026, policymakers should remember that disadvantaged workers would be the most likely to benefit from making it permanent.
2 min readOhio’s CAT Is Out of the Bag
Coming out of the pandemic, the state of Ohio is estimating significant tax revenue growth, and some lawmakers are looking to take advantage and repeal the Commercial Activity Tax (CAT), one of only a few gross receipts taxes still levied in the country.
7 min readMississippians Would Benefit from Sustainable Income Tax Reduction
Mississippi lawmakers should deliver tax relief in 2022, but they need not take an all-or-nothing approach. There are many ways to improve the state’s tax code, even if full income tax repeal doesn’t remain on the table.
6 min readBusiness Tax Collections Within Historical Norm After Accounting for Pass-through Business Taxes
When looking at the tax burden on businesses over time, it is important to provide a complete picture by accounting for the different types of businesses in the U.S. and the timing effects of the 2017 tax law. Doing so provides important context on existing tax burdens and for considering the impact of raising taxes on corporations and pass-through firms.
3 min readHow Will Build Back Better Impact Inflation?
The persistently high inflation in recent months has made some lawmakers question the need for additional deficit spending, In the short term, the Build Back Better Act would likely contribute to inflation, but the magnitude of that contribution is unclear.
3 min readRed Flags Emerge in Build Back Better Book Minimum Tax, Interest Expense Limitation
The Build Back Better Act would raise taxes to pay for social spending programs. But the design of some of the tax increases may end up hurting private pensions, among other problems.
6 min readNorway’s New Budget Adds Unnecessary Complexity
Norway’s proposed reductions in income tax have the potential to increase disposable income for workers that can potentially raise consumption and contribute to economic growth. However, the increase of the wealth and indirect taxes is likely to step up the complexity of the tax system and create additional distortions.
3 min readHow Do Build Back Better Taxes Affect 5G Competition?
One unintended consequence of the tax proposals in the Build Back Better Act is a higher potential burden on wireless spectrum investments, which could slow the build out of 5G technology as the U.S. races to compete with other countries—moving in the opposite direction of countries like China that are actively subsidizing 5G expansion.
5 min readRepublican Cannabis Bill Would Tax by Category
Rep. Mace (R-SC)’s States Reform Act would deschedule, regulate, and tax cannabis products with a novel federal excise tax design—based on quantities and predefined categories, not dissimilar from how the federal government taxes alcohol and tobacco.
7 min readEconomy Loses More than Revenue Gains in the House Build Back Better Act
Due to the House Build Back Better tax plan’s economically costly and inefficient tax increases, our analysis finds that long-run GDP would drop by a little over $1 for every $1 in new tax revenue.
6 min read