The economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic poses a triple challenge for tax policy in the United States. Lawmakers are tasked with crafting a policy response that will accelerate the economic recovery, reduce the mounting deficit, and protect the most vulnerable.
To assist lawmakers in navigating the challenge, and to help the American public understand the tax changes being proposed, the Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy modeled how 70 potential changes to the tax code would affect the U.S. economy, distribution of the tax burden, and federal revenue.
In tax policy there is an ever-present trade-off among how much revenue a tax will raise, who bears the burden of a tax, and what impact a tax will have on economic growth. Armed with the information in our new book, Options for Reforming America’s Tax Code 2.0, policymakers can debate the relative merits and trade-offs of each option to improve the tax code in a post-pandemic world.
The State Flat Tax Revolution: Where Things Stand Today
From 2021-2024, within the span of 3.5 years, more states enacted laws converting graduated-rate individual income tax structures into single-rate income tax structures than did so in the whole 108-year history of state income taxation up until that point.
10 min readCBO and JCT Preview Economic Analysis of Extending TCJA
The analysis provides key insights into how their models work and the sort of outputs we can expect from their models as part of next year’s tax debate.
8 min readFDA’s Proposed Cigarette Prohibition Would Cost $33 Billion in Annual Tax Revenue
The US already has massive problems with cigarette smuggling. A cigarette prohibition would be devastating to tax coffers while pushing smokers toward what could become the world’s largest illicit market.
4 min readAre Tariffs the Ghost of Christmas Future?
The holiday season is marked by time with friends and family, joy, and gift-giving. But could tax policy make the sticker shock from your shopping list next year tariff-ying?
4 min readCigarette Smuggling Cost States Nearly $5 Billion in Forgone Excise Tax Revenue Each Year
Tax avoidance is a natural consequence of tax policy. Policymakers should consider the unintended consequences, both to public health and public coffers, of the excise taxes and regulatory regimes for cigarettes and other nicotine products.
5 min readLouisiana Now Boasts a More Competitive and Pro-Growth Tax Code
Lawmakers will enter the 2025 fiscal legislative session with an opportunity to build on the successes of the November special session. Efforts should include addressing the outstanding issues within the corporate and sales tax codes that currently hold the state back.
7 min readAll About That Base(line)
If lawmakers are serious about pro-growth policies and fiscal responsibility, they will need to put policies forward that achieve those goals. Simply adjusting the baseline doesn’t reduce actual deficits in the coming years.
7 min readTax Competitiveness and Interstate Migration
Recent data suggest that tax competitiveness plays a significant role in residents’ relocation decisions.
3 min readAlabama Expands Tax-Free Overtime Eligibility, but Should Repeal Entire Exemption
Tax reform in Alabama is desirable and very possible. However, the overtime exemption, which complicates the tax code, reduces neutrality, and adds to compliance and reporting costs, is not a good example.
4 min readHow the Payroll Tax Base Has Changed Over Time
The Social Security trust funds face looming insolvency if policymakers don’t reform the program. One issue that garners a lot of attention in the debate over solutions is the payroll tax cap.
3 min read