Tracking the Impact of the Trump Tariffs & Trade War
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
55 min readThe Tax Foundation is the world’s leading independent tax policy 501(c)(3) nonprofit. For over 85 years, our mission has remained the same: to improve lives through tax policies that lead to greater economic growth and opportunity.
Our Center for Federal Tax Policy, Center for State Tax Policy, and Center for Global Tax Policy each produce timely and high-quality research and analysis that influences the debate toward economically principled tax policies. Our experts are continuously analyzing the day’s most relevant tax policy topics and are relied upon routinely for presentations, testimony, and media appearances on tax issues spanning every level of government.
Likewise, providing journalists, taxpayers, and policymakers with basic data on taxes and spending has been a cornerstone of the Tax Foundation’s educational mission since its founding. As we wrote in our first edition of Facts & Figures in 1941, “Facts give a broader perspective; facts dissipate predilections and prejudices…[and are] an important step to meet the challenge presented by the broad problems of public finance.”
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
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How will recent federal tax changes affect you?
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The State Tax Competitiveness Index enables policymakers, taxpayers, and business leaders to gauge how their states’ tax systems compare. While there are many ways to show how much state governments collect in taxes, the Index evaluates how well states structure their tax systems and provides a road map for improvement.
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Lawmakers can constrain the growth of property taxes without creating new problems. But the details matter.
Our experts explain how this major tax legislation may affect you and how policymakers can better improve the tax code.
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For Congress, work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is done. But in state capitols, the work has not yet begun. Many of the tax changes in the federal reconciliation act flow through to state tax codes—automatically in some states, and subject to an update in states’ Internal Revenue Code conformity date in others.
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As a rule, an individual’s income can be taxed both by the state in which the taxpayer resides and by the state in which the taxpayer’s income is earned.
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Notably, the OBBBA makes permanent the individual tax changes first put in place by the TCJA, which avoids a tax hike on an estimated 62 percent of tax filers in 2026.
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Facts & Figures serves as a one-stop state tax data resource that compares all 50 states on over 40 measures of tax rates, collections, burdens, and more.
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While there are many factors that affect a country’s economic performance, taxes play an important role. A well-structured tax code is easy for taxpayers to comply with and can promote economic development while raising sufficient revenue for a government’s priorities.
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New IRS data shows the US federal income tax system continues to be progressive as high-income taxpayers pay the highest average income tax rates. Average tax rates for all income groups remain lower after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
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The variety of approaches to taxation among European countries creates a need to evaluate these systems relative to each other. For that purpose, we have developed the European Tax Policy Scorecard—a relative comparison of European countries’ tax systems.
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One notable consequence of high state tobacco excise tax rates is increased smuggling as people procure discounted products from low-tax states and sell them in high-tax states. Smugglers wouldn’t have to look far to find cheaper smokes. All of Maryland’s neighboring states have rates lower than $4 per pack, including Virginia ($1.20) and West Virginia ($0.30). Such an increase would impact the many small business owners operating vape shops around the state and convenience stores relying heavily on vapers as well as tobacco sales.
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The latest IRS data shows that the U.S. individual income tax continues to be very progressive, borne primarily by the highest income earners. The top 1 percent of taxpayers pay a 26.8 percent average individual income tax rate, which is more than six times higher than taxpayers in the bottom 50 percent (4.0 percent).
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OECD countries have on average become more reliant on consumption taxes and less reliant on individual income taxes. These policy changes matter, considering that consumption-based taxes raise revenue with less economic damage and distortionary effects than taxes on income.
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2020 Democratic presidential candidates have proposed various changes to the corporate income tax, which includes increasing the rate, ranging from 25 percent to 35 percent, imposing a corporate surtax or a minimum tax, and lengthening depreciation schedules.
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Our updated 2020 edition of Facts & Figures serves as a one-stop state tax data resource that compares all 50 states on over 40 measures of tax rates, collections, burdens, and more.
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Several 2020 Democratic presidential candidates have proposed changes to federal payroll tax rates and the Social Security payroll tax wage base to raise revenue and maintain solvency for major federal entitlement programs.
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Individual income taxes are a major source of state government revenue, accounting for 37 percent of state tax collections in fiscal year (FY) 2017. Several states had notable individual income tax changes in 2020: Arizona, Arkansas, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
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Forty-four states currently levy a corporate income tax. Rates range from 2.5 percent in North Carolina to 12 percent in Iowa. Over the past year, several states, including Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and New Jersey, implemented notable corporate income tax changes.
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New modeling finds that the wealth taxes proposed by Sen. Warren and Sen. Sanders would raise significantly less revenue than promised, face serious administrative and compliance challenges, and would increase foreign ownership of U.S. capital.
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Policymakers should exercise caution in deciding whether to enact an FTT given the uncertainty regarding the FTT’s ability to raise revenue and the significant damage it could cause to the U.S. financial system
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When considering options to eliminate the deferral advantage of capital gains taxation, a lookback charge provides a reasonable solution for taxing hard-to-value assets. However, policymakers need to understand the limitations of a lookback charge compared to both mark-to-market taxation and the current system.
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