The “Inflation Tax” Is Regressive
A new CBO report reveals that lower- and middle-income households are disproportionately shouldering the burden of this current inflation wave. And historical analysis suggests there is much more to come.
5 min read
Expert
William McBride
Chief Economist & Stephen J. Entin Fellow in Economics
Dr. William McBride is the Chief Economist & Stephen J. Entin Fellow in Economics at the Tax Foundation, where he oversees major research projects primarily related to reforming the federal tax code, advancing sound tax policy, and improving the federal government’s fiscal outlook.
Dr. McBride has more than ten years of experience analyzing a variety of economic and policy issues. At the Tax Foundation he has served as the Vice President of Federal Tax Policy, leading our efforts to research, model, and reform the U.S. tax code, and as Chief Economist, researching the economics of taxation and guiding the development of the Tax Foundation dynamic scoring model. From 2015 to 2020 he was a manager in the National Economic and Statistics (NES) group at PwC where he worked on a wide array of projects including economic impact analyses, industry surveys, U.S. federal and state tax revenue estimates, and issues related to tax reform at the state, federal, and international levels.
Dr. McBride holds a PhD in economics from George Mason University, where he specialized in macroeconomics and agent-based modeling. His research has been cited by policymakers, quoted by major media outlets, including The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times, and published in scholarly journals, such as the National Tax Journal, Public Budgeting & Finance, and Tax Notes.
Latest Work
Details & Analysis of the Inflation Reduction Act Tax Provisions
How will the Inflation Reduction Act taxes impact inflation, economic growth, tax revenue, and everyday taxpayers? See Inflation Reduction Act tax changes.
12 min read
Minimum Book Tax: Flawed Revenue Source, Penalizes Pro-Growth Cost Recovery
While exempting accelerated depreciation from the book minimum tax would reduce some of the economic harm of the tax, there remain many unresolved problems within the design and structure of the tax that make it a poorly chosen revenue option.
3 min read
Reminder that Corporate Taxes Are the Most Economically Damaging Way to Raise Revenue
In the rush to pass the Inflation Reduction Act, which features an ill-conceived tax on the book income of U.S. corporations, it is worth reminding policymakers of a well-established finding in the economic literature.
3 min read
Push for Higher Taxes Is Misguided During a Time of Inflation and Looming Recession
Some 40 years ago, the U.S. dealt with high inflation and slow economic growth. Then as now, the solution is a long-term focus on stronger economic growth and sustainable federal budgets.
5 min read
Federal Corporate Tax Revenue and All Federal Tax Collections Headed for Another Record High
Total tax collections are currently running 25 percent higher than last year, and if that pattern holds, total federal tax collections will reach over $5 trillion in FY 2022—a new all-time high.
3 min read
Biden Budget Would Raise Income Tax Rates to Highest in Developed World
The FY 2023 budget proposes several new tax increases, which in combination with the Build Back Better Act, would give the U.S. the highest top tax rates on individual and corporate income in the developed world.
4 min read
10 Tax Reforms for Growth and Opportunity
By reducing the tax code’s current barriers to investment and saving and simplifying its complex rules, lawmakers would greatly enhance the ability of Americans to pursue new ideas, create more opportunities, and build financial security for themselves and their families.
40 min read
Taxes, Fiscal Policy, and Inflation
Consumer prices rose by 7 percent in 2021, the highest annual rate of inflation since 1982. Where did this inflation come from and what might its impacts be? Tax and fiscal policy offer important clues.
5 min read
A Holiday Tradition: Tax Extenders Slated to Expire at End of 2021
Tax extenders this year can be split into three rough groups: expiring parts of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), expiring parts of various COVID-19 economic relief packages, and the Island of Misfit Extenders.
8 min read
Permanent Build Back Better Act Would Likely Require Large Tax Increases on the Middle Class
Policymakers and taxpayers should understand the scope of tax changes necessary to fully pay for the large-scale social spending programs that would be initiated under the Build Back Better Act.
6 min read
House Build Back Better Act: Details & Analysis of Tax Provisions in the Budget Reconciliation Bill
Learn more about the House Build Back Better Act, including the latest details and analysis of the Biden tax increases and reconciliation bill tax proposals.
15 min read
Business Tax Collections Within Historical Norm After Accounting for Pass-through Business Taxes
When looking at the tax burden on businesses over time, it is important to provide a complete picture by accounting for the different types of businesses in the U.S. and the timing effects of the 2017 tax law. Doing so provides important context on existing tax burdens and for considering the impact of raising taxes on corporations and pass-through firms.
3 min read
Top Tax Rate on Personal Income Would Be Highest in OECD under New Build Back Better Framework
Under the latest iteration of the House Build Back Better Act (BBBA), the average top tax rate on personal income would reach 57.4 percent, giving the U.S. the highest rate in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
2 min read
Lawmakers Could Pay for Reconciliation While Improving the Tax Code
With corporate and individual rate hikes potentially out of the Build Back Better (BBB) reconciliation package, lawmakers are weighing alternative options to raise revenue. Rather than come up with untested proposals and complicated changes to the tax base, they should prioritize options that raise revenue while improving the structure of the tax code.
4 min read
Corporate Tax Revenue Hit an All-Time High in 2021
This year’s robust corporate tax collections calls into question efforts by the administration and congressional Democrats to increase the corporate tax rate and raise other corporate taxes based on claims of relatively low tax collections following the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) in 2017.
2 min read
Latest White House Report Tells Incomplete Story on Average Tax Rates for Wealthy
The White House Council of Economic Advisors (CEA)’s recent report estimates the average federal individual income tax rate for the top 400 wealthiest households in the U.S to be 8.2 percent, lower than typically estimated for top earners.
4 min read
The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of the Ways and Means Plan
The latest version of the Biden Build Back Better agenda, released last week by the House Ways and Means committee, is dense, with too many provisions to flesh out completely. Here’s a rundown of the good, the bad, and the ugly of it.
7 min read
Top Tax Rate on Pass-through Business Income Would Exceed 50 Percent in Most States Under House Dems’ Plan
Under the House Democrats’ reconciliation plan, the top tax rate on pass-through business income would exceed 50 percent in most states. Pass-through businesses, such as sole proprietorships, S corporations, and partnerships, make up a majority of businesses and majority of private sector employment in the United States.
3 min read
Wyden’s Financial Services Tax Proposals Would Put “Mark-to-Market” to the Test
Mark-to-market is not simple to implement, as it involves new administrative and compliance challenges for taxpayers. Mark-to-market levies tax on phantom income, requiring some taxpayers to engage in some degree of liquidation, ultimately suppressing incentives to save and invest. The limited tax revenues that could result from these proposals are not worth the risk.
5 min read