The Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy takes a quantitative approach to analyzing the economic, budgetary, and distributional impact of important campaign, legislative, and other popular tax proposals using our dynamic Taxes and Growth (TAG) macroeconomic model.
The mission of our economic and tax modeling program is to educate lawmakers and the public about the key trade-offs in tax policy, the real-world impact of those trade-offs on taxpayers and our economy, and the best options for achieving principled and pro-growth tax reform.
In an attempt to provide a realistic, data-driven analysis of federal tax policy, the Tax Foundation has developed a General Equilibrium Model to simulate the effects of tax policies on the economy and on government revenues and budgets.
6 min read
Lawmakers should use the most comprehensive analytical tools available to them—like dynamic scoring—to make informed decisions about policy changes.
5 min read
The federal tax code remains a major source of frustration and controversy for Americans, and a hindrance to economic growth and opportunity. Other countries, such as Estonia, have proven that sufficient tax revenue can be collected in a less frustrating and more efficient way.
42 min read
The business tax changes originally introduced in the TCJA are scheduled to increase tax burdens on businesses at a time when economic headwinds and broader uncertainty are higher than they have been in decades.
12 min read
According to our analysis, President Biden’s budget would reduce long-run economic output by about 1.3 percent and eliminate 335,000 FTE jobs. See what tax policies the president is proposing.
17 min read
A robust collection of 70 potential US tax reform changes and US tax reform options for reforming the tax code. See the comprehensive tax reform guide.
Due to the House Build Back Better tax plan’s economically costly and inefficient tax increases, our analysis finds that long-run GDP would drop by a little over $1 for every $1 in new tax revenue.
6 min read
Tax Foundation testimony at the Joint Economic Committee hearing on the revenue provisions in the Build Back Better Act and related analysis on their estimated impact.
24 min read
If the spending in the $3.5 trillion budget resolution were financed entirely from tax increases, it would rival as a share of GDP the tax increases used to finance World War II and the Korean War.
3 min read
The Biden administration’s international tax proposals would impose a 7.7 percent surtax on the foreign profits of U.S. multinationals, resulting in a net increase in profit shifting out of the U.S.
60 min read
While it is good that policymakers are taking the impact of the economy on tax revenue seriously, it is important to remember that the dynamic effect of increased spending would only offset a small portion of the total spending. In other words, new spending—like tax cuts—rarely pays for itself.
3 min read
The redistribution of income from the Biden administration’s tax proposals would involve many winners and losers, not only across different types of taxpayers but also geographically across the country. Launch our new interactive map to see average tax changes by state and congressional district over the budget window from 2022 to 2031.
8 min read
Explore President Biden budget proposals, including tax and spending in American Jobs Plan and American Families Plan. See Biden tax and spending proposals.
12 min read
The Biden administration has pledged to not raise taxes on anyone earning less than $400,000 a year. However, the administration’s corporate tax proposals would likely violate that pledge, given that corporations are comprised of people who also might earn less than $400,000.
3 min read
Details and analysis of the American Jobs Plan tax proposals. Learn more about the major tax changes in the proposed Biden infrastructure plan.
9 min read
With the Biden administration proposing a variety of new taxes, it is worth revisiting the literature on how taxes, particularly on corporate and individual income, can impact economic growth.
9 min read
The Biden administration’s proposed American Families Plan includes several major tax changes. Explore the tax proposals in the American Families Plan.
10 min read
There’s a useful contrast between two revenue options related to President Biden’s infrastructure push. The president’s American Jobs Plan includes a proposal to raise the corporate tax rate to 28 percent. Meanwhile, historically, the gas tax is the main revenue source for transportation funding.
8 min read
The international corporate tax changes in President Biden’s tax plan would increase tax rates on domestic income more than on foreign income, resulting in a net increase in profit shifting out of the US, according to our Multinational Tax Model.
33 min read
As policymakers consider tax options to boost the U.S. economy’s long-run economic growth, they should consider reforms that would increase growth the most while minimizing forgone tax revenue.
4 min read
Economic research and Tax Foundation modeling indicate there is a negative trade-off between progressive taxes on capital income—such as the wealth tax, minimum book tax on corporate income, and a higher corporate tax rate—and economic growth.
21 min read
The Options guide presents the economic effects we estimate would occur in the long term, or 20 to 30 years from now, but we can also use our model to show the cumulative effects of the policy change—providing more context, for instance, about how the effects of a higher corporate income tax rate compound over time, which we estimate would reduce GDP by a cumulative $720 billion over the next 10 years.
4 min read
Simplifying the R&D credit, making it more accessible for smaller firms, and ensuring full cost recovery for R&D expenses by canceling the upcoming R&D amortization are three things policymakers should consider when trying to improve the tax code for R&D.
40 min read
Some tax hikes are more damaging than others, according to Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and new Tax Foundation economic modeling.
5 min read
As the Biden administration and Congress consider making the expanded child tax credit permanent, a nearly $1.6 trillion expansion of tax code-administered benefits, they should consider financing it in a way that doesn’t create significant headwinds to economic recovery.
3 min read
President Biden and congressional policymakers have proposed several changes to the corporate income tax, including raising the rate from 21 percent to 28 percent and imposing a 15 percent minimum tax on the book income of large corporations, to raise revenue for new spending programs. Our new modeling analyzes the economic, revenue, and distributional impact of these proposals.
46 min read