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Economic and Tax Modeling

The Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy takes a quantitative approach to analyzing the economic, budgetary, and distributional impact of important campaign, legislative, and other popular tax proposals using our dynamic Taxes and Growth (TAG) macroeconomic model.

The mission of our economic and tax modeling program is to educate lawmakers and the public about the key trade-offs in tax policy, the real-world impact of those trade-offs on taxpayers and our economy, and the best options for achieving principled and pro-growth tax reform.

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Raising the corporate rate would reduce GDP by $720 billion Tax Foundation analysis. More on Biden’s proposal to increase the corporate tax rate to 28 percent (higher corporate income tax impact)

Raising the Corporate Rate to 28 Percent Reduces GDP by $720 Billion Over Ten Years

The Options guide presents the economic effects we estimate would occur in the long term, or 20 to 30 years from now, but we can also use our model to show the cumulative effects of the policy change—providing more context, for instance, about how the effects of a higher corporate income tax rate compound over time, which we estimate would reduce GDP by a cumulative $720 billion over the next 10 years.

4 min read
Inflation Reduction Act stock buyback tax Making the expanded child tax credit permanent American Rescue Plan Act. House Democrats covid plan. House Ways and Means coronavirus relief legislation. House Ways and Means committee coronavirus relief legislation. Ways and Means Chairman Richard E. Neal coronavirus relief package. New coronavirus relief bill summary, Stimulus check round 2, unemployment benefits

Making the Expanded Child Tax Credit Permanent Would Cost Nearly $1.6 Trillion

As the Biden administration and Congress consider making the expanded child tax credit permanent, a nearly $1.6 trillion expansion of tax code-administered benefits, they should consider financing it in a way that doesn’t create significant headwinds to economic recovery.

3 min read

Evaluating Proposals to Increase the Corporate Tax Rate and Levy a Minimum Tax on Corporate Book Income

President Biden and congressional policymakers have proposed several changes to the corporate income tax, including raising the rate from 21 percent to 28 percent and imposing a 15 percent minimum tax on the book income of large corporations, to raise revenue for new spending programs. Our new modeling analyzes the economic, revenue, and distributional impact of these proposals.

46 min read
GOP Covid GOP proposal GOP Covid proposal and Biden American Rescue Plan Biden GOP covid proposal GOP covid relief bill

Modeling Different Proposals for Round Three Direct Payments

President Biden is calling for a third round of economic impact payments to households as part of his $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan. Under the plan, the payments would be $1,400 per person, topping off the recent round of $600 payments for a combined $2,000 per person. Senate Republicans have proposed payment amounts of $1,000 per individual and $500 per dependent, lower income thresholds, and faster phaseout rates.

5 min read
Biden’s tax plan would be the one of the largest tax increase since the 1940s and one of the largest tax increases not associated with wartime funding, Biden's tax plan in historical context

Placing Joe Biden’s Tax Increases in Historical Context

If we consider Biden’s tax plan over the entire budget window (2021 to 2030) as a percentage of GDP—1.30 percent—it would rank as the 6th largest tax increase since the 1940s and and one of the largest tax increases not associated with wartime funding.

6 min read
estimated economic impact of improved cost recovery by state

Estimated Impact of Improved Cost Recovery Treatment by State

We estimate that moving to permanent full expensing and neutral cost recovery for structures would add more than 1 million full-time equivalent jobs to the long-run economy and boost the long-run capital stock by $4.8 trillion.

4 min read