Budget Reconciliation: Tracking the 2025 Trump Tax Cuts
President Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law on July 4, 2025.
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Featured Articles
FAQ: The One Big Beautiful Bill, Explained
Our experts explain how this major tax legislation may affect you and how policymakers can better improve the tax code.
24 min read
One Big Beautiful Bill Act Tax Policies: Details and Analysis
We estimate the One Big Beautiful Bill Act would increase long-run GDP by 1.2 percent and reduce federal tax revenue by $5 trillion over the next decade on a conventional basis.
11 min read
The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act makes many of the individual tax cuts and reforms of the TCJA permanent. It improves upon the TCJA by making expensing for R&D and equipment permanent. However, for the most part, it does not include further structural reforms, and instead introduces many new, narrow tax breaks to the code, adding complexity and raising revenue costs.
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The One Big Beautiful Tax Bill: What’s In It, What’s Out
Congress is racing to pass the One Big Beautiful Tax Bill before the July 4 deadline. In this episode, Kyle Hulehan and Erica York break down what just happened over the weekend, what’s actually in the bill, and what comes next as the House and Senate try to reconcile their differences.
“One Big Beautiful Bill Act” House GOP Tax Plan: Details and Analysis
Our preliminary analysis finds the tax provisions increase long-run GDP by 0.8 percent and reduce federal tax revenue by $4.0 trillion from 2025 through 2034 on a conventional basis before added interest costs.
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House Tax Package Could Double Economic Growth Impact by Prioritizing Permanence for TCJA Business Provisions
As the current tax package stands, the House’s use of temporary policy is leaving most of the economic growth opportunities on the table.
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Expiring TCJA Tax Provisions in 2026 Would Produce Substantial Tax Hike across the US
At the end of 2025, the individual tax provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) expire all at once. Without congressional action, most taxpayers will see a notable tax increase relative to current policy in 2026.
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Tax Calculator: How the TCJA’s Expiration Will Affect You
Unless Congress acts, Americans are in for a tax hike in 2026.
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Expensing: It Pays to Be Permanent
As lawmakers work through the reconciliation process, permanently enacting improvements to deductions for capital investment and research and development (R&D) costs will create an economically powerful package.
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How 2026 Tax Brackets Would Change if the TCJA Expires
If Congress allows the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) to expire as scheduled, most aspects of the individual income tax would undergo substantial changes, resulting in more than 62 percent of tax filers experiencing tax increases in 2026.
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Making the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Permanent: Economic, Revenue, and Distributional Effects
Permanently extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would boost long-run economic output by 1.1 percent, the capital stock by 0.7 percent, wages by 0.5 percent, and hours worked by 847,000 full-time equivalent jobs.
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House GOP’s Approach to the IRA Clean Energy Tax Credits: Five Things to Know
Tax simplification has two aspects. The first is a code without a mess of targeted provisions for various social policy goals. The second is a code with provisions that are simple and easy to comply with. The bill succeeds at the first, but fails at the second.
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Considering Potential International Corporate Tax Reforms in the US
Tax legislation in 2025 may have good reason to address international corporate income taxes, because of scheduled changes slated to go into effect or because of international developments like the Pillar Two agreement.
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Cleaning Up the Tax Code Could Raise Trillions for Tax Reform
As Republicans look for ways to offset the budgetary cost of extending the expiring provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and potentially enacting other tax cuts, the latest estimates indicate several trillion dollars could be raised by reducing tax credits and other preferences in the tax code.
5 min read
All About That Base(line)
If lawmakers are serious about pro-growth policies and fiscal responsibility, they will need to put policies forward that achieve those goals. Simply adjusting the baseline doesn’t reduce actual deficits in the coming years.
7 min read
Growth Should Be a Key Consideration if Corporate SALT Is Limited
Lawmakers should prioritize pro-growth tax policies and use the least economically damaging offsets to make the legislation fiscally responsible. If lawmakers choose to use C-SALT, they should carefully consider the economic trade-off with permanent, pro-growth tax cuts that support investment and innovation in the US.
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Questions About Tax Cuts, Tariffs, and Reconciliation After the Election
Fiscal pressures are likely to weigh heavily on lawmakers as they craft a tax reform package. That increased pressure could result in well-designed tax reform that prioritizes economic growth, simplicity, and stability, or it could encourage budget gimmicks and economically harmful offsets. Lawmakers should avoid the latter.
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Behind the Numbers: Budget Shenanigans and the National Debt
What happens to your taxes when the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expires on January 1, 2026? In this episode, we explore the potential tax hikes facing millions of Americans and the debate over measuring the budgetary impacts of extending tax cuts.
Picking the Right Budgetary Offsets Key to Tax Reform Success
In a perilous economic and fiscal environment, with instability created by Trump’s trade war and publicly held debt on track to surpass the highest levels ever recorded within five years, a lot rides on how Republicans navigate tax and spending reforms in reconciliation.
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Congressional Policymakers Should Tread Carefully When Weighing New Corporate SALT Deduction Limits
While capping C-SALT has superficial appeal in perceived parity with personal limits, it rests on flawed assumptions about the nature of individual and corporate income taxes.
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House Budget Resolution Aims to Balance Tax Cut and Spending Reduction Goals
The House Budget Committee has released a budget resolution that specifies large reductions in both taxes and spending over the next decade, paving the way to extend the expiring provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and potentially cut other taxes.
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New Study Finds TCJA Strongly Boosted Corporate Investment
The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) was the largest corporate tax reform in a generation, lowering the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent, temporarily allowing full expensing for short-lived assets (referred to as bonus depreciation), and overhauling the international tax code.
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Tax Reform Offsets Shouldn’t Offset Economic Growth
Pro-growth tax reform that does not add to the deficit will require tough choices, but whether to raise the corporate tax rate is not one of them. If lawmakers want to craft fiscally responsible and pro-growth tax reform, a higher corporate tax rate simply does not fit into the puzzle.
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Will Your Taxes Go Up? Best- and Worst-case Scenarios for Tax Reform in 2025
What will the future of tax policy look like? In this episode, we dive into the critical challenges and opportunities looming on the horizon, especially with major tax cuts set to expire, which could increase taxes for 62 percent of filers.
New Efforts on Taxing Endowments Raise Questions on Neutrality and Revenue Collection
Republican policymakers in Congress are considering options to raise revenue as part of their expected legislative package in 2025. One such option involves raising the tax rate on university endowments first put in place as part of the TCJA in 2017.
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Video: Tax Reform Is More Than Just the Rate
Tax policy is almost always a balancing act between the tax rate – how much someone pays – and the tax base – who or what is being taxed.
All Related Articles
Book Minimum Tax versus Corporate Rate Increase: Pick Your Poison
While the book minimum tax is smaller in scale than the proposed original corporate rate increases, it would introduce more complexity, inefficiency, and problems at the industry- and sector-levels that a corporate rate increase would not. Neither option is an optimal way to raise new tax revenues.
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House Build Back Better Act: Details & Analysis of Tax Provisions in the Budget Reconciliation Bill
Learn more about the House Build Back Better Act, including the latest details and analysis of the Biden tax increases and reconciliation bill tax proposals.
15 min read
Taxing Decisions, 2021: Minisode 4, Waiting on the Senate
Senior policy analyst Garrett Watson joins host Jesse Solis to discuss the Build Back Better Act’s prospects and what tax changes—ranging from the SALT deduction to the Child Tax Credit—could change in order to gain enough support for passage.
How Will Build Back Better Impact Inflation?
The persistently high inflation in recent months has made some lawmakers question the need for additional deficit spending, In the short term, the Build Back Better Act would likely contribute to inflation, but the magnitude of that contribution is unclear.
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Red Flags Emerge in Build Back Better Book Minimum Tax, Interest Expense Limitation
The Build Back Better Act would raise taxes to pay for social spending programs. But the design of some of the tax increases may end up hurting private pensions, among other problems.
6 min read
How Do Build Back Better Taxes Affect 5G Competition?
One unintended consequence of the tax proposals in the Build Back Better Act is a higher potential burden on wireless spectrum investments, which could slow the build out of 5G technology as the U.S. races to compete with other countries—moving in the opposite direction of countries like China that are actively subsidizing 5G expansion.
5 min read
Economy Loses More than Revenue Gains in the House Build Back Better Act
Due to the House Build Back Better tax plan’s economically costly and inefficient tax increases, our analysis finds that long-run GDP would drop by a little over $1 for every $1 in new tax revenue.
6 min read
Taxing Decisions, 2021: Minisode 3 Revenge of the SALT
Infrastructure has made its way across the finish line, but the tax debate is far from over on Capitol Hill. Senior policy analyst Garrett Watson joins host Jesse Solis to walk us through the latest iteration of Democrats’ trillion-dollar reconciliation package and the myriad tax changes that are being proposed to finance this deal.
Comparing Tax Provisions in Different Versions of the House Build Back Better Act
The most recent versions of President Biden’s Build Back Better plan are improvements on the original proposal, but would still reduce economic growth and average after-tax incomes for the top 80 percent of earners in the long run.
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Wrong Tax Base Leads to Multiple Issues for Federal Nicotine Tax Proposal
The nicotine tax proposal in the Build Back Better Act neglects sound excise tax policy design and by doing so risks harming public health. Lawmakers should reconsider this approach to nicotine taxation.
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Top Tax Rate on Personal Income Would Be Highest in OECD under New Build Back Better Framework
Under the latest iteration of the House Build Back Better Act (BBBA), the average top tax rate on personal income would reach 57.4 percent, giving the U.S. the highest rate in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
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Top Combined Capital Gains Tax Rates Would Average Nearly 37 Percent Under Build Back Better Framework
Under the Build Back Better framework, six states and D.C. would face combined top marginal capital gains tax rates of more than 40 percent, nearing the top rate among OECD countries.
3 min read
Proposed Top Combined Marginal Capital Gains Tax Rate Would Be Third-Highest in OECD
Under the new Build Back Better framework, the United States would tax capital gains at the third-highest top marginal rate among rich nations, averaging nearly 37 percent.
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Lawmakers Consider Untested and Complex Policies to Fund Reconciliation Bill
Congress is debating new ways to raise revenue that would make the tax code more complex and more difficult to administer. The new proposals—imposing an alternative minimum tax on corporate book income, applying an excise tax on stock buybacks, and, at one point this week, a tax on unrealized capital gains for billionaires—are unreliable and highly complex ways to raise revenue.
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Taxing Decisions, 2021: Minisode 2
President Biden and Congressional Democrats introduced a scaled-back proposal of their reconciliation package, with House leadership saying they hope to vote on this new trillion-dollar package ASAP. We talk through what made it into the deal, what was cut, and what the impact of these tax changes would be.
New Study Shows Tax Policy Has Strong Effects on Innovation
When examining how tax policy impacts the economy, researchers typically look at labor supply and investment responses. One other channel through which taxes impact the economy has been less studied: innovation.
3 min read
The Rich Are Not Monolithic and Taxing Their Wealth Invites Tax Collection Volatility
Congressional Democrats are reported to be weighing a special tax on the assets of billionaires to raise revenues to pay for their Build Back Better spending plan. There are two fundamental challenges to such a plan.
8 min read
How Would House Dems’ Tax Plan Change Competitiveness of U.S. Tax Code?
The legislation put forward by Democratic members of the House of Representatives would reverse many of the 2017 reforms while increasing burdens on businesses and workers.
2 min read
Lawmakers Could Pay for Reconciliation While Improving the Tax Code
With corporate and individual rate hikes potentially out of the Build Back Better (BBB) reconciliation package, lawmakers are weighing alternative options to raise revenue. Rather than come up with untested proposals and complicated changes to the tax base, they should prioritize options that raise revenue while improving the structure of the tax code.
4 min read
Proposed Minimum Tax on Book Income Would Hit Stock-Based Compensation
Raising taxes on stock-based compensation through a book income tax will disadvantage this form of compensation and produce more complexity in the tax system without providing benefits to workers.
5 min read