Budget Reconciliation: Tracking the 2025 Trump Tax Cuts
Our experts are providing the latest details and analysis of proposed federal tax policy changes.
10 min read
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Since 2012, we have used our Taxes and Growth (TAG) macroeconomic model to analyze dozens of legislative and campaign tax proposals, including every major tax plan put forth during the 2016 presidential campaigns, the House GOP’s 2016 Tax Reform Blueprint, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and President Biden’s tax reform agenda. See Our Economic and Tax Modeling
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Making the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Permanent: Economic, Revenue, and Distributional Effects
Permanently extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would boost long-run economic output by 1.1 percent, the capital stock by 0.7 percent, wages by 0.5 percent, and hours worked by 847,000 full-time equivalent jobs.
6 min read
Trump Tariffs: Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War
The tariffs amount to an average tax increase of nearly $1,200 per US household in 2025.
33 min read
Tax Calculator: How the TCJA’s Expiration Will Affect You
Unless Congress acts, Americans are in for a tax hike in 2026.
3 min read
Expiring TCJA Tax Provisions in 2026 Would Produce Substantial Tax Hike across the US
At the end of 2025, the individual tax provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) expire all at once. Without congressional action, most taxpayers will see a notable tax increase relative to current policy in 2026.
4 min read
Options for Navigating the 2025 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Expirations
Policymakers should have two priorities in the upcoming economic policy debates: a larger economy and fiscal responsibility. Principled, pro-growth tax policy can help accomplish both.
21 min read
A Tax Reform Plan for Growth and Opportunity: Details & Analysis
This tax reform plan would boost long-run GDP by 2.5%, grow wages by 1.4%, and add 1.3M jobs, all while collecting a similar amount of tax revenue as the current code and reducing the long-run debt burden.
38 min read
The Unsustainable US Debt Course and Impacts of Potential Tax Changes
Given the poor state of the budget process and worsening debt trajectory, lawmakers should move boldly and quickly to address the issue, including via a fiscal commission process. Issues to consider should include reforms to both spending and taxes.
42 min read
Risks to the U.S. Tax Base from Pillar Two
A growing international tax agreement known as Pillar Two presents two new threats to the U.S. tax base: potential lost revenue and limitations on Congress’s ability to set its own tax policy.
39 min readAll Related Articles
700 Results
Tax Reform Isn’t Done
Expiring provisions, scheduled tax increases on investment, unresolved issues in the code—The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was passed, but tax reform isn’t done yet.
37 min read
Getting “Real” by Indexing Capital Gains for Inflation
Many elements of the income tax are adjusted for inflation, such as tax brackets, but the purchase price of assets that are later sold for capital gains or losses is not. Here’s the case for changing that.
17 min read
Marriage Penalties and Bonuses under the Tax Cuts and Jobs
The marriage penalty and the marriage bonus are each ways that the income tax code violates the principle of neutrality and affects taxpayer behavior. Here’s how each works and why they deserve attention.
13 min read
Preliminary Details and Analysis of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
According to the Tax Foundation’s Taxes and Growth Model, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would lead to a 1.7 percent increase in GDP over the long term, 1.5 percent higher wages, an additional 339,000 full-time equivalent jobs, and cost $1.47 trillion on a static basis and by $448 billion on a dynamic basis.
22 min read
Measuring Marginal Tax Rate on Capital Assets
This study demonstrates how Tax Foundation’s TAG model calculates the weighted average METRs for different capital assets in the corporate and noncorporate sectors. The high marginal rates of up to 53 percent in the corporate sector illustrate why there is an urgent need for business tax reform.
12 min read
Preliminary Details and Analysis of the Senate’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
This comprehensive overview of the of the Senate Tax Cuts and Jobs Act includes a summary of its details and macroeconomic analysis of how it would impact federal revenue, wages, GDP, and after-tax incomes.
23 min read