Budget Reconciliation: Tracking the 2025 Trump Tax Cuts
Our experts are providing the latest details and analysis of proposed federal tax policy changes.
15 min read
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Economic and Tax Modeling
Since 2012, we have used our Taxes and Growth (TAG) macroeconomic model to analyze dozens of legislative and campaign tax proposals, including every major tax plan put forth during the 2016 presidential campaigns, the House GOP’s 2016 Tax Reform Blueprint, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and President Biden’s tax reform agenda. See Our Economic and Tax Modeling
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Making the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Permanent: Economic, Revenue, and Distributional Effects
Permanently extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would boost long-run economic output by 1.1 percent, the capital stock by 0.7 percent, wages by 0.5 percent, and hours worked by 847,000 full-time equivalent jobs.
6 min read
Trump Tariffs: Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War
The tariffs amount to an average tax increase of nearly $1,200 per US household in 2025.
37 min read
Tax Calculator: How the TCJA’s Expiration Will Affect You
Unless Congress acts, Americans are in for a tax hike in 2026.
3 min read
Expiring TCJA Tax Provisions in 2026 Would Produce Substantial Tax Hike across the US
At the end of 2025, the individual tax provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) expire all at once. Without congressional action, most taxpayers will see a notable tax increase relative to current policy in 2026.
4 min read
Options for Navigating the 2025 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Expirations
Policymakers should have two priorities in the upcoming economic policy debates: a larger economy and fiscal responsibility. Principled, pro-growth tax policy can help accomplish both.
21 min read
A Tax Reform Plan for Growth and Opportunity: Details & Analysis
This tax reform plan would boost long-run GDP by 2.5%, grow wages by 1.4%, and add 1.3M jobs, all while collecting a similar amount of tax revenue as the current code and reducing the long-run debt burden.
38 min read
The Unsustainable US Debt Course and Impacts of Potential Tax Changes
Given the poor state of the budget process and worsening debt trajectory, lawmakers should move boldly and quickly to address the issue, including via a fiscal commission process. Issues to consider should include reforms to both spending and taxes.
42 min read
Risks to the US Tax Base from Pillar Two
A growing international tax agreement known as Pillar Two presents two new threats to the US tax base: potential lost revenue and limitations on Congress’s ability to set its own tax policy.
39 min readAll Related Articles
702 Results
New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut v. the United States: A Preview of the SALT Limit Constitutional Challenge
The threatened lawsuit may be more a political exercise than a legal one, as a judge is unlikely to rule that the SALT deduction cap violates either the Equal Protection Clause or the Tenth Amendment
14 min readShould Congress Act Before SCOTUS On Online Sales Taxes?
The U.S. Supreme Court is hearing a case on the constitutionality of a South Dakota law requiring internet vendors collect online sales tax, but should Congress fix the problem first?
13 min read
Tax Reform Isn’t Done
Expiring provisions, scheduled tax increases on investment, unresolved issues in the code—The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was passed, but tax reform isn’t done yet.
37 min read
Getting “Real” by Indexing Capital Gains for Inflation
Many elements of the income tax are adjusted for inflation, such as tax brackets, but the purchase price of assets that are later sold for capital gains or losses is not. Here’s the case for changing that.
17 min read
Marriage Penalties and Bonuses under the Tax Cuts and Jobs
The marriage penalty and the marriage bonus are each ways that the income tax code violates the principle of neutrality and affects taxpayer behavior. Here’s how each works and why they deserve attention.
13 min read
Preliminary Details and Analysis of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
According to the Tax Foundation’s Taxes and Growth Model, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would lead to a 1.7 percent increase in GDP over the long term, 1.5 percent higher wages, an additional 339,000 full-time equivalent jobs, and cost $1.47 trillion on a static basis and by $448 billion on a dynamic basis.
22 min read