Evaluating U.S. Tax Reform Options & Trade-Offs

The economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic poses a triple challenge for tax policy in the United States. Lawmakers are tasked with crafting a policy response that will accelerate the economic recovery, reduce the mounting deficit, and protect the most vulnerable.

To assist lawmakers in navigating the challenge, and to help the American public understand the tax changes being proposed, the Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy modeled how 70 potential changes to the tax code would affect the U.S. economy, distribution of the tax burden, and federal revenue.

In tax policy there is an ever-present trade-off among how much revenue a tax will raise, who bears the burden of a tax, and what impact a tax will have on economic growth. Armed with the information in our new book, Options for Reforming America’s Tax Code 2.0, policymakers can debate the relative merits and trade-offs of each option to improve the tax code in a post-pandemic world.

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Full Expensing is Good for the Short Run and the Long Run

In the first year of enactment alone, we estimate the combination of full expensing and neutral cost recovery would increase full-time equivalent employment by more than 44,000 jobs. The cumulative impact by year five of the policy would be nearly 200,000 new jobs.

4 min read
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Michigan Vapor Tax Bill Gets It Half-Right

In line with the nationwide trend of taxing vapor products, the Michigan Senate has passed a new 18 percent tax on vapor products. These taxes are often intended to achieve a two-fold goal: deterring youth use and raising revenue. The Michigan bill is no exception.

4 min read
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CARES Act Conformity Would Promote Economic Recovery in Nebraska

Nebraska lawmakers may ultimately opt for a package that includes both property tax relief and the renewal of business incentives, but they should avoid doing so at the expense of decoupling from the CARES Act’s liquidity-enhancing provisions.

6 min read
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Cautionary Notes from CBO on the Effects of Federal Investment

Based on the CBO’s assessment of the economic and budgetary effects of federal investment, lawmakers should look to spur private sector investment rather than try to enact a massive federal infrastructure bill.

5 min read
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A Blow to Pillar 1

The U.S. has called for a pause in global digital tax negotiations, dealing a blow to Pillar 1 of the OECD’s international tax project. What happens next could be very harmful for the global economy.

3 min read
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Answering Four Questions About How Neutral Cost Recovery Works in Practice

A neutral cost recovery system lowers the short-term cost of the policy to the federal government while providing nearly equivalent economic benefits. While neutral cost recovery is not a new idea, there are several policy questions lawmakers will want to consider when designing this system.

6 min read
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What the Internet Can Teach Us About Capital Investment, Infrastructure, and Tax Policy

The lockdowns imposed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic induced an increase in demand for broadband internet, as work from home and other social distancing measures pushed people to spend more time online. As broadband becomes a more important piece of America’s infrastructure, it makes sense to look at tax policy that will help drive more investment and better service.

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Weighing the Benefits of Permitting Business Credit Cashouts in Phase 4 Economic Relief

As lawmakers explore options for “Phase 4” coronavirus relief legislation, one idea that has received renewed attention is allowing businesses to cash out business tax credits. This proposal would be strengthened by also permitting acceleration of firms’ accrued net operating loss (NOL) deductions and designing the proposal so that firms can quickly convert these tax assets into cash.

4 min read