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Evaluating U.S. Tax Reform Options & Trade-Offs

The economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic poses a triple challenge for tax policy in the United States. Lawmakers are tasked with crafting a policy response that will accelerate the economic recovery, reduce the mounting deficit, and protect the most vulnerable.

To assist lawmakers in navigating the challenge, and to help the American public understand the tax changes being proposed, the Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy modeled how 70 potential changes to the tax code would affect the U.S. economy, distribution of the tax burden, and federal revenue.

In tax policy there is an ever-present trade-off among how much revenue a tax will raise, who bears the burden of a tax, and what impact a tax will have on economic growth. Armed with the information in our new book, Options for Reforming America’s Tax Code 2.0, policymakers can debate the relative merits and trade-offs of each option to improve the tax code in a post-pandemic world.

Carbon tax revenue to grow economy, Using carbon tax revenue to address post-Covid economic recovery, carbon tax economic recovery

Using Carbon Tax Revenue to Grow the Economy

The economy and climate change are two challenges the Biden administration has identified as priorities. One way to address both issues at the same time is to enact a carbon tax to discourage carbon emissions, and to use the resulting carbon tax revenue to lower—or in the case of the TCJA’s individual provisions, avoid increases of—other, more distortive, types of taxes. This would not only address the challenges of climate change but also support the economy.

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Janet Yellen Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen Treasury testimony confirmation testimony and hearing

5 Observations on Janet Yellen’s Recent Confirmation Testimony

In her recent confirmation hearing, economist Janet Yellen, President Biden’s choice for Treasury Secretary, sought to reassure markets that the new administration would not raise corporate taxes until the economy improves. At the same time, however, she sent a troubling signal that when they do push for higher corporate tax rates, they would do so in coordination with other countries so that the U.S. doesn’t lose its competitive edge.

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Massachusetts Flavored Tobacco Ban Causes Cigarette Sales’ Increase in Neighboring States Tax Stamps Sales in June-September 2020 versus June-September 2019. Massachusetts flavored tobacco ban and its impact on Massachusetts tax revenue

Massachusetts Flavored Tobacco Ban Has Severe Impact on Tax Revenue

The Massachusetts flavored tobacco ban highlights the complications of contradictory tax and regulatory policy, the instability of excise taxes that go beyond pricing in the cost of externalities, and the public risks of driving consumers into the black market through excessive taxation or regulation.

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controlled foreign corporation rules

Day 2 of OECD Consultation on International Tax Reform Blueprints

The OECD consultation is in the context of the Inclusive Framework on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting which is made up of delegates from more than 135 countries and is focused on policies that reduce opportunities for tax avoidance by multinational companies. The current proposals being considered would change both where and how much companies pay in corporate taxes.

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Tax Cuts and Jobs Act offshoring OECD BEPS project, OECD consultation document, OECD multinationals, Consumption tax policies in OECD countries, Consumption taxes in OECD countries

Day 1 of OECD Consultation on International Tax Reform Blueprints

The first session was focused on Pillar 1 of the OECD proposal. The pieces in Pillar 1 would change tax rules so that companies would be paying more taxes in countries based on the location of customers. This approach would move more tax revenues into so-called “market countries.”

3 min read
Schumer marijuana bill recreational marijuana tax revenue by state

Several States Considering Legal Recreational Marijuana

With most states experiencing reduced tax revenues due to the coronavirus pandemic, several are contemplating whether recreational marijuana legalization and taxation may be one avenue to raise new revenue. While states that have already legalized do raise meaningful revenue, lawmakers should remember that establishment of legal markets takes time.

5 min read
Biden minimum tax on foreign earnings Biden approach to taxing corporate income Us tariffs on french goods in response to france digital services tax

Digital Tax Collection Triggers New U.S. Tariffs on France

A multilateral solution to digital taxation would be preferable over DSTs and retaliatory measures, especially during these challenging economic times. DSTs are indeed distortionary taxes that can act as trade barriers. Retaliatory tariffs, however, only further weaken the U.S.-French trade relationship and will negatively impact both economies.

2 min read