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Evaluating U.S. Tax Reform Options & Trade-Offs

The economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic poses a triple challenge for tax policy in the United States. Lawmakers are tasked with crafting a policy response that will accelerate the economic recovery, reduce the mounting deficit, and protect the most vulnerable.

To assist lawmakers in navigating the challenge, and to help the American public understand the tax changes being proposed, the Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy modeled how 70 potential changes to the tax code would affect the U.S. economy, distribution of the tax burden, and federal revenue.

In tax policy there is an ever-present trade-off among how much revenue a tax will raise, who bears the burden of a tax, and what impact a tax will have on economic growth. Armed with the information in our new book, Options for Reforming America’s Tax Code 2.0, policymakers can debate the relative merits and trade-offs of each option to improve the tax code in a post-pandemic world.

Ron Wyden energy tax proposal in Biden infrastructure bill. Katie Porter oil executive tax deduction

Wyden’s Energy Tax Proposal a Mixed Bag

As the Biden administration turns toward infrastructure, Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Or.) has suggested including reforms to the way the tax code subsidizes energy production in such a package, eliminating 44 “tax breaks” for various activities in the energy sector and replacing them with only three.

3 min read
American Rescue Plan state tax cuts, American Rescue Plan tax cuts State Unemployment Compensation Trust Funds, Elizabeth Warren wealth tax, Some tax hikes are more damaging than others, according to Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and new Tax Foundation economic modeling.

Does the American Rescue Plan Ban State Tax Cuts?

Senate amendments to the American Rescue Plan Act prohibit using any of the $350 billion in State and Local Fiscal Recovery Funds to cut taxes, but many are concerned that states which accept the funds could be prohibited from implementing tax cuts between now and 2024—an astonishing level of federal interference in states’ fiscal affairs.

8 min read
distributed profits tax cash-flow tax model for business taxes stock buybacks dividends

Phasing in a Corporate Rate Hike Would Be the Worst of Both Worlds

The Biden administration has signaled its openness to raising the corporate tax rate, potentially by phasing in an increase over several years. While phasing in a tax increase, as opposed to hiking immediately, may seem like a reasonable middle ground, it would be the worst of both worlds because it provides old investment with a lower rate while penalizing new investment.

2 min read
excise tax definition suspending the gas tax proposal Kentucky's gas tax road funding, Kentucky gas tax bill

Kentucky’s Century-Old Gas Tax Is Failing to Keep Up with Road Funding Needs

For the fourth year in a row, a comprehensive infrastructure funding reform bill has been introduced in Kentucky, with the centerpiece being a gas tax increase of 8.6 cents per gallon (cpg). Like many states, Kentucky faces a backlog of road maintenance and construction projects, and existing transportation taxes and user fees are failing to keep pace with funding needs.

4 min read
American Families Plan tax proposals American Family Plan Details and Analysis Biden American Families Plan Senate American Rescue Plan direct payments stimulus checks federal covid relief American Rescue Plan tax american rescue plan stimulus payments

Senate Direct Payment Design Would Create High Implicit Marginal Tax Rates

As the Senate debates the relief package and makes progress in the budget reconciliation process, policymakers should keep in mind the trade-off between targeted economic relief and increasing marginal tax rates in the tax code, which can distort incentives to earn income and induce taxpayers to creatively adjust their AGI to receive a payment in the next tax season.

4 min read
New Hampshire Business Profits Tax, New Hampshire Business Enterprise Tax, New Hampshire business tax cut, New Hampshire House Bill 10, New Hampshire Income Tax

New Hampshire Bill Aims to Reduce Tax Burden on Businesses

A year ago, it seemed possible that New Hampshire was headed toward a triggered tax increase. Instead, lawmakers may trim business tax rates and begin the phaseout of the state’s tax on interest and dividend income, which would take away the asterisk and make New Hampshire the ninth state to forgo an individual income tax altogether.

4 min read
Remote work tax revenue implications digital nomad visas, digital nomads, tax incentives for remote workers. Deutsche Bank tax work-from-home tax Deutsche Bank privilege tax on remote work

Tax Incentives for Digital Nomads and Remote Workers

Policy changes to attract foreigners are not without benefits, but governments should carefully weigh the costs of the tax incentives against opportunities to implement broader tax reforms. A more efficient income tax system is a better objective than just focusing on incentives for foreigners to change their tax residence.

4 min read