Tracking the Impact of the Trump Tariffs & Trade War
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
55 min readThe Tax Foundation is the world’s leading independent tax policy 501(c)(3) nonprofit. For over 85 years, our mission has remained the same: to improve lives through tax policies that lead to greater economic growth and opportunity.
Our Center for Federal Tax Policy, Center for State Tax Policy, and Center for Global Tax Policy each produce timely and high-quality research and analysis that influences the debate toward economically principled tax policies. Our experts are continuously analyzing the day’s most relevant tax policy topics and are relied upon routinely for presentations, testimony, and media appearances on tax issues spanning every level of government.
Likewise, providing journalists, taxpayers, and policymakers with basic data on taxes and spending has been a cornerstone of the Tax Foundation’s educational mission since its founding. As we wrote in our first edition of Facts & Figures in 1941, “Facts give a broader perspective; facts dissipate predilections and prejudices…[and are] an important step to meet the challenge presented by the broad problems of public finance.”
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
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How will recent federal tax changes affect you?
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The State Tax Competitiveness Index enables policymakers, taxpayers, and business leaders to gauge how their states’ tax systems compare. While there are many ways to show how much state governments collect in taxes, the Index evaluates how well states structure their tax systems and provides a road map for improvement.
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Lawmakers can constrain the growth of property taxes without creating new problems. But the details matter.
Our experts explain how this major tax legislation may affect you and how policymakers can better improve the tax code.
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For Congress, work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is done. But in state capitols, the work has not yet begun. Many of the tax changes in the federal reconciliation act flow through to state tax codes—automatically in some states, and subject to an update in states’ Internal Revenue Code conformity date in others.
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As a rule, an individual’s income can be taxed both by the state in which the taxpayer resides and by the state in which the taxpayer’s income is earned.
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Notably, the OBBBA makes permanent the individual tax changes first put in place by the TCJA, which avoids a tax hike on an estimated 62 percent of tax filers in 2026.
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Facts & Figures serves as a one-stop state tax data resource that compares all 50 states on over 40 measures of tax rates, collections, burdens, and more.
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While there are many factors that affect a country’s economic performance, taxes play an important role. A well-structured tax code is easy for taxpayers to comply with and can promote economic development while raising sufficient revenue for a government’s priorities.
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New IRS data shows the US federal income tax system continues to be progressive as high-income taxpayers pay the highest average income tax rates. Average tax rates for all income groups remain lower after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
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The variety of approaches to taxation among European countries creates a need to evaluate these systems relative to each other. For that purpose, we have developed the European Tax Policy Scorecard—a relative comparison of European countries’ tax systems.
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While it’s unclear how soon state economies may be able to fully open again, it’s not too early for states to consider how they can remove barriers to businesses & consumers resuming activity.
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The current crisis highlights the cost of underfunding pensions in years of economic growth. Twenty states have pension plans that were less than two-thirds funded, and five states had pension plans that were less than 50 percent funded.
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If states fail to update their income tax conformity, they will wind up taxing the federal lifeline to small businesses in the CARES Act: the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans.
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Six states, which collectively account for over one-third of the U.S. population, are currently in a position to pay out fewer than 10 weeks of the unemployment compensation claims that have already come in since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Although sometimes overlooked in discussions about corporate taxation, capital cost recovery plays an important role in defining a business’s tax base and can impact investment decisions—with far-reaching economic consequences.
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Another 1.4 million Americans filed initial regular unemployment benefit claims, the eleventh week of a decline in the rate of new claims, but still among the highest levels in U.S. history. The total number of new and continued claims now stands at 19.3 million, a marked decline from the peak of 24.9 million a month ago.
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The extent to which businesses and consumers will benefit from coronavirus relief measures like temporary VAT changes will depend on the VAT base.
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Rainy day funds have increasingly emerged as a standard component of states’ budgeting toolkits. Economic cycles can have significant impacts on state revenue, but states can prepare for the inevitable downturns during good times by putting away money in a revenue stabilization fund.
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Due to certain VAT exemption thresholds, many small businesses will not be able to benefit from the VAT changes being introduced throughout Europe to provide relief during the COVID-19 crisis.
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As policymakers consider ways to facilitate investment, effective average tax rates provide a valuable perspective on where burdens on those activities are high and where they are low.
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While lawmakers are working through the design of vapor tax proposals, they must thread the needle between protecting adult smokers’ ability to switch and barring minors’ access to nicotine products. A good first step is creating appropriate definitions for the new nicotine products to avoid unintended disproportionate taxation based on design differences or bundling.
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