Tracking the Impact of the Trump Tariffs & Trade War
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
55 min readThe Tax Foundation is the world’s leading independent tax policy 501(c)(3) nonprofit. For over 85 years, our mission has remained the same: to improve lives through tax policies that lead to greater economic growth and opportunity.
Our Center for Federal Tax Policy, Center for State Tax Policy, and Center for Global Tax Policy each produce timely and high-quality research and analysis that influences the debate toward economically principled tax policies. Our experts are continuously analyzing the day’s most relevant tax policy topics and are relied upon routinely for presentations, testimony, and media appearances on tax issues spanning every level of government.
Likewise, providing journalists, taxpayers, and policymakers with basic data on taxes and spending has been a cornerstone of the Tax Foundation’s educational mission since its founding. As we wrote in our first edition of Facts & Figures in 1941, “Facts give a broader perspective; facts dissipate predilections and prejudices…[and are] an important step to meet the challenge presented by the broad problems of public finance.”
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
55 min read
How will recent federal tax changes affect you?
4 min read
The State Tax Competitiveness Index enables policymakers, taxpayers, and business leaders to gauge how their states’ tax systems compare. While there are many ways to show how much state governments collect in taxes, the Index evaluates how well states structure their tax systems and provides a road map for improvement.
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Lawmakers can constrain the growth of property taxes without creating new problems. But the details matter.
Our experts explain how this major tax legislation may affect you and how policymakers can better improve the tax code.
24 min read
For Congress, work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is done. But in state capitols, the work has not yet begun. Many of the tax changes in the federal reconciliation act flow through to state tax codes—automatically in some states, and subject to an update in states’ Internal Revenue Code conformity date in others.
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As a rule, an individual’s income can be taxed both by the state in which the taxpayer resides and by the state in which the taxpayer’s income is earned.
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Notably, the OBBBA makes permanent the individual tax changes first put in place by the TCJA, which avoids a tax hike on an estimated 62 percent of tax filers in 2026.
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Facts & Figures serves as a one-stop state tax data resource that compares all 50 states on over 40 measures of tax rates, collections, burdens, and more.
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While there are many factors that affect a country’s economic performance, taxes play an important role. A well-structured tax code is easy for taxpayers to comply with and can promote economic development while raising sufficient revenue for a government’s priorities.
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New IRS data shows the US federal income tax system continues to be progressive as high-income taxpayers pay the highest average income tax rates. Average tax rates for all income groups remain lower after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
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The variety of approaches to taxation among European countries creates a need to evaluate these systems relative to each other. For that purpose, we have developed the European Tax Policy Scorecard—a relative comparison of European countries’ tax systems.
55 min read
Improving the tax treatment of structures is one of the most cost-effective tax policy changes available to lawmakers as they consider how to remove investment barriers in the tax code to hasten the economic recovery. Policymakers must weigh the trade-offs among long-run economic output goals, revenue constraints, and the existing stock of structures.
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Although the U.S. has a progressive tax system and a relatively low tax burden compared to the OECD average, average-wage workers still pay about 30 percent of their wages in taxes.
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While the current crisis has caused consumption to drop dramatically, it is generally true that income taxes are more volatile than consumption taxes in an economic downturn and income taxes tend to be more harmful to economic growth than consumption taxes and property taxes.
3 min read
A higher tax burden on labor often leads to lower employment rates and wages. That’s important for policymakers to remember as they look for ways to help their economies recover from coronavirus-induced shutdowns. If their goal is to encourage employment, policies that lower the tax burden on labor could prove a powerful tool.
20 min read
The COVID-19 pandemic and accompanying economic downturn will wreak havoc on state and local tax revenues, with projections of a 15-20 percent decline in state revenues. Our new report provides a framework for how to design an effective state and local relief package.
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Policymakers will have to consider design options for accelerating NOL deductions to ensure the refunds are simple, provide targeted relief to struggling firms, and are consistent with long-run revenue needs.
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Inventory taxes are levied regardless of whether a business makes a profit, adding to the burden of businesses already struggling to stay afloat.
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As many businesses may need time to return to profitability after this crisis, states should prioritize reducing reliance on capital stock taxes, and shift toward more neutral forms of business taxation.
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While it’s unclear how soon state economies may be able to fully open again, it’s not too early for states to consider how they can remove barriers to businesses & consumers resuming activity.
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We examine whether excise taxes are a solution to budget deficits, and while the short answer to that question is no, there are of course nuances. Excise taxes can play a role in state revenues even as policymakers appreciate that excise taxes are not viable long-term revenue tools for general spending priorities.
21 min read
The current crisis highlights the cost of underfunding pensions in years of economic growth. Twenty states have pension plans that were less than two-thirds funded, and five states had pension plans that were less than 50 percent funded.
3 min read
The Child Tax Credit (CTC) is a partially-refundable tax credit available to parents with qualifying dependents under the age of 17. Like other tax credits, the CTC reduces tax liability dollar-for-dollar of the value of the credit.
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If states fail to update their income tax conformity, they will wind up taxing the federal lifeline to small businesses in the CARES Act: the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans.
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Six states, which collectively account for over one-third of the U.S. population, are currently in a position to pay out fewer than 10 weeks of the unemployment compensation claims that have already come in since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
3 min read
Although sometimes overlooked in discussions about corporate taxation, capital cost recovery plays an important role in defining a business’s tax base and can impact investment decisions—with far-reaching economic consequences.
27 min readState revenue stabilization funds, often called rainy day funds, are better funded now than they were at the start of the Great Recession and can be a valuable tool as states face a sharp pandemic-linked economic contraction.
18 min read