Trump Tariffs: Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War
The Trump tariffs are the largest US tax increase as a percent of GDP since 1993 and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $1,500 in 2026.
47 min readThe Tax Foundation is the world’s leading independent tax policy 501(c)(3) nonprofit. For over 85 years, our mission has remained the same: to improve lives through tax policies that lead to greater economic growth and opportunity.
Our Center for Federal Tax Policy, Center for State Tax Policy, and Center for Global Tax Policy each produce timely and high-quality research and analysis that influences the debate toward economically principled tax policies. Our experts are continuously analyzing the day’s most relevant tax policy topics and are relied upon routinely for presentations, testimony, and media appearances on tax issues spanning every level of government.
Likewise, providing journalists, taxpayers, and policymakers with basic data on taxes and spending has been a cornerstone of the Tax Foundation’s educational mission since its founding. As we wrote in our first edition of Facts & Figures in 1941, “Facts give a broader perspective; facts dissipate predilections and prejudices…[and are] an important step to meet the challenge presented by the broad problems of public finance.”
The Trump tariffs are the largest US tax increase as a percent of GDP since 1993 and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $1,500 in 2026.
47 min read
How will recent federal tax changes affect you?
4 min read
The State Tax Competitiveness Index enables policymakers, taxpayers, and business leaders to gauge how their states’ tax systems compare. While there are many ways to show how much state governments collect in taxes, the Index evaluates how well states structure their tax systems and provides a road map for improvement.
122 min read
Lawmakers can constrain the growth of property taxes without creating new problems. But the details matter.
Our experts explain how this major tax legislation may affect you and how policymakers can better improve the tax code.
24 min read
For Congress, work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is done. But in state capitols, the work has not yet begun. Many of the tax changes in the federal reconciliation act flow through to state tax codes—automatically in some states, and subject to an update in states’ Internal Revenue Code conformity date in others.
39 min read
As a rule, an individual’s income can be taxed both by the state in which the taxpayer resides and by the state in which the taxpayer’s income is earned.
52 min read
We estimate the OBBBA will reduce federal taxes on average for individual taxpayers in every state. Across all individual tax filers throughout the US, the average tax cut per taxpayer will be over $3,700 in 2026.
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Facts & Figures serves as a one-stop state tax data resource that compares all 50 states on over 40 measures of tax rates, collections, burdens, and more.
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While there are many factors that affect a country’s economic performance, taxes play an important role. A well-structured tax code is easy for taxpayers to comply with and can promote economic development while raising sufficient revenue for a government’s priorities.
93 min read
New IRS data shows the US federal income tax system continues to be progressive as high-income taxpayers pay the highest average income tax rates. Average tax rates for all income groups remain lower after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
6 min read
The variety of approaches to taxation among European countries creates a need to evaluate these systems relative to each other. For that purpose, we have developed the European Tax Policy Scorecard—a relative comparison of European countries’ tax systems.
55 min readTo encourage private retirement savings, OECD countries commonly provide tax-preferred retirement accounts. However, in many countries, including the United States, the system of tax-preferred retirement accounts is complex, which may deter savers from using such accounts—and potentially lower overall savings.
21 min read
State taxation of GILTI is unconventional and economically uncompetitive and will become even more so if the federal government adopts a more aggressive approach to taxing GILTI, as outlined in the American Jobs Plan Act.
29 min read
With the Biden administration proposing a variety of new taxes, it is worth revisiting the literature on how taxes, particularly on corporate and individual income, can impact economic growth.
9 min read
Digital advertising, social media, and data tax proposals have been introduced in nine states following enactment of Maryland’s digital advertising tax, which has since been postponed a year due to administrative and legal challenges.
14 min read
The Biden administration’s proposed American Families Plan includes several major tax changes. Explore the tax proposals in the American Families Plan.
10 min read
A landmark comparison of corporate tax costs in all 50 states, Location Matters provides a comprehensive calculation of real-world tax burdens, going beyond headline rates to demonstrate how tax codes impact businesses and offering policymakers a road map to improvement.
8 min read
The international corporate tax changes in President Biden’s tax plan would increase tax rates on domestic income more than on foreign income, resulting in a net increase in profit shifting out of the US, according to our Multinational Tax Model.
33 min read
The economic evidence shows that travelers and tourists are sensitive to price changes for rental cars and adjust their behavior to avoid the tax, harming state economies and the travel sector right as the industry is trying to recover from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic.
30 min read
Simplifying the R&D credit, making it more accessible for smaller firms, and ensuring full cost recovery for R&D expenses by canceling the upcoming R&D amortization are three things policymakers should consider when trying to improve the tax code for R&D.
40 min read
With so many federal changes occurring in such a short amount of time—including some federal provisions changing more than once and a major change to the treatment of UC income occurring in the middle of tax filing season—state legislators have faced the challenge of responding to these changes quickly in order to provide certainty to taxpayers.
24 min read
The 2021 UK budget introduces a two-year super-deduction of 130 percent for plant and equipment and a delayed corporate tax rate increase from 19 percent to 25 percent in 2023. These policies have differential impacts on marginal effective tax rates for different assets, implying investment incentives will not be uniform.
15 min read
The American Rescue Plan Act’s restriction on states’ Fiscal Recovery Funds being used to directly or indirectly offset a net tax cut is vague and raises difficult questions of interpretation and application. A broad interpretation of this prohibition may be unconstitutional.
19 min read
Despite the coronavirus pandemic’s immense health and economic challenges, the crisis has also revealed the incredible value of innovation.
32 min read
The excise tax family is growing. Over the last decade, several products have become subject to excise taxes or are in the process of becoming so. Given this development, it is more crucial than ever that lawmakers, businesses, and consumers understand the possibilities and, more importantly, limitations of excise tax application.
77 min read
Mississippi has an opportunity to become the 10th state without an individual income tax and to do so with sales tax rates which, while certainly high, are in line with regional competitors. For such a momentous undertaking, however, policymakers should be equipped with reliable revenue projections and a detailed accounting of how much revenue is projected to come from each offsetting change. A change worth doing is worth doing right.
15 min read
President Biden and congressional policymakers have proposed several changes to the corporate income tax, including raising the rate from 21 percent to 28 percent and imposing a 15 percent minimum tax on the book income of large corporations, to raise revenue for new spending programs. Our new modeling analyzes the economic, revenue, and distributional impact of these proposals.
46 min read
The Biden campaign and Senate Democrats identified changes to GILTI that would increase the taxes U.S. companies pay on their foreign earnings. Rather than tacking on changes to a system that is currently neither fully territorial nor worldwide, policymakers should evaluate the structure of the current system with a goal of it becoming more, not less, coherent.
51 min read
In addition to its economic impact on Maryland businesses and the likelihood of serious legal challenges, Maryland’s proposed digital advertising tax is incredibly vague on vital definitions, creating uncertainty about where revenue is sourced and when it is subject to the tax.
17 min read
The consultation on the EU’s digital levy provides an opportunity for policymakers and taxpayers to reflect on the underlying issues of digital taxation and potential consequences from a digital levy. Unless the EU digital levy is designed with an OECD agreement in mind, it is likely to cause more uncertainty in cross-border tax policy.
12 min read
We identify 13 of the highest tax reform priorities Nebraska policymakers should consider in their effort to create a more growth-friendly tax code. We also offer a sample comprehensive tax reform plan to show one way policymakers could begin tackling these objectives over the next couple legislative sessions, with further progress to be made in the years ahead.
8 min read