Tracking the Impact of the Trump Tariffs & Trade War
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
56 min readThe Tax Foundation is the world’s leading independent tax policy 501(c)(3) nonprofit. For over 85 years, our mission has remained the same: to improve lives through tax policies that lead to greater economic growth and opportunity.
Our Center for Federal Tax Policy, Center for State Tax Policy, and Center for Global Tax Policy each produce timely and high-quality research and analysis that influences the debate toward economically principled tax policies. Our experts are continuously analyzing the day’s most relevant tax policy topics and are relied upon routinely for presentations, testimony, and media appearances on tax issues spanning every level of government.
Likewise, providing journalists, taxpayers, and policymakers with basic data on taxes and spending has been a cornerstone of the Tax Foundation’s educational mission since its founding. As we wrote in our first edition of Facts & Figures in 1941, “Facts give a broader perspective; facts dissipate predilections and prejudices…[and are] an important step to meet the challenge presented by the broad problems of public finance.”
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
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How will recent federal tax changes affect you?
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The State Tax Competitiveness Index enables policymakers, taxpayers, and business leaders to gauge how their states’ tax systems compare. While there are many ways to show how much state governments collect in taxes, the Index evaluates how well states structure their tax systems and provides a road map for improvement.
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Lawmakers can constrain the growth of property taxes without creating new problems. But the details matter.
Our experts explain how this major tax legislation may affect you and how policymakers can better improve the tax code.
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For Congress, work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is done. But in state capitols, the work has not yet begun. Many of the tax changes in the federal reconciliation act flow through to state tax codes—automatically in some states, and subject to an update in states’ Internal Revenue Code conformity date in others.
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As a rule, an individual’s income can be taxed both by the state in which the taxpayer resides and by the state in which the taxpayer’s income is earned.
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Notably, the OBBBA makes permanent the individual tax changes first put in place by the TCJA, which avoids a tax hike on an estimated 62 percent of tax filers in 2026.
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Facts & Figures serves as a one-stop state tax data resource that compares all 50 states on over 40 measures of tax rates, collections, burdens, and more.
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While there are many factors that affect a country’s economic performance, taxes play an important role. A well-structured tax code is easy for taxpayers to comply with and can promote economic development while raising sufficient revenue for a government’s priorities.
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New IRS data shows the US federal income tax system continues to be progressive as high-income taxpayers pay the highest average income tax rates. Average tax rates for all income groups remain lower after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
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The variety of approaches to taxation among European countries creates a need to evaluate these systems relative to each other. For that purpose, we have developed the European Tax Policy Scorecard—a relative comparison of European countries’ tax systems.
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Following the Wayfair decision, states’ move to tax online sales has increased the importance of simplicity in sales tax systems, as sellers now have to deal with differing regulations in multiple states. There are over 11,000 standard sales tax jurisdictions in the United States in 2020
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17 European countries have implemented a carbon tax, ranging from less than €1 per metric ton of carbon emissions in Ukraine and Poland to over €100 in Sweden.
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Contrary to the perceptions of some, new data indicate that (1) income earned after taxes and transfers has increased over the past several decades for all income groups; (2) the federal tax system is increasingly progressive; and (3) that system relies heavily on higher earners to raise revenue for government services and means-tested transfers.
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State throwback and throwout rules may not be widely understood, but they have a notable impact on business location and investment decisions and reduce economic efficiency for the states which impose such rules.
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Over the last three years, eight European OECD countries have made changes to their dividend tax rates. Iceland, Norway, Slovenia, Switzerland, and Turkey increased their rates, each between roughly one and three percentage points. France, Greece, and Latvia cut their rates by 10 percentage points.
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Five states currently collect corporate AMTs: California, Iowa, Kentucky, Minnesota, and New Hampshire. This is a significant drop from the eight states that levied AMTs in tax year 2017.
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Ten European OECD countries recently changed their top personal income tax rates. Of the ten countries, six cut their top personal income tax rates while the other four raised their top rates.
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The pandemic precipitated the steepest decline in economic output and employment in recent history, which is leading to a drop in tax revenue. At the same time, the federal response to the crisis is producing a large increase in spending. This combination will cause the federal budget deficit to spike.
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State tax revenue collections were down 5.5 percent in FY 2020, driven by a dismal final quarter (April through June) as states began to feel the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. While these early losses are certainly not desirable, they are manageable and far better than many feared.
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Just as COVID-19 is putting pressure on other sources of revenue, the loss of VAT revenues resulting from the crisis will force governments to evaluate their VAT systems.
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Under an individual AMT, many taxpayers are required to calculate their income tax liability under two different systems and pay the higher amount.
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Over the last two decades, corporate income tax rates have declined around the world. Our new map shows the most recent changes in corporate tax rates in European OECD countries, comparing how combined statutory corporate income tax rates have changed between 2017 and 2020.
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A marriage penalty exists when a state’s income brackets for married taxpayers filing jointly are less than double the bracket widths that apply to single filers.
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Tax treaties usually provide mechanisms to eliminate double taxation and can provide certainty and stability for taxpayers and encourage foreign investment and trade. A broad network of tax treaties contributes to the competitiveness of an economy.
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In addition to the federal estate tax, with a top rate of 40 percent, some states levy an additional estate or inheritance tax.
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To discourage a certain form of international debt shifting, many countries have implemented so-called thin-capitalization rules (thin-cap rules), which limit the amount of interest a multinational business can deduct for tax purposes.
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New Jersey has the highest effective rate on owner-occupied property at 2.21 percent, followed closely by Illinois (2.05 percent) and New Hampshire (2.03 percent).
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To prevent businesses from minimizing their tax liability by taking advantage of cross-country differences in taxation, countries have implemented various anti-tax avoidance measures, one known as Controlled Foreign Corporation (CFC) rules.
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The five counties with the highest median property tax payments are all located near New York City and have bills exceeding $10,000.
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The method by which a country allows businesses to account for inventories can significantly impact a business’s taxable income. When prices are rising, as is usually the case due to factors like inflation, LIFO is the preferred method because it allows inventory costs to be closer to true costs at the time of sale.
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