Tax Calculator: How the TCJA’s Expiration Will Affect You
Unless Congress acts, Americans are in for a tax hike in 2026.
3 min read
Expert
Garrett Watson
Director of Policy Analysis
Garrett Watson is Director of Policy Analysis at the Tax Foundation, where he conducts research on federal and state tax policy. His work has been featured in The Washington Post, The Atlantic, Politico, the Associated Press and other major outlets.
Previously, Garrett was a program manager at a nearby think tank and conducted policy research on economic opportunity and labor markets, including non-compete clause reform.
Garrett earned a bachelor’s degree from St. Lawrence University in upstate New York, where he studied economics and philosophy. Garrett lives in northwest Arkansas and is an avid hockey fan and snowboarder.
Latest Work
Sustainably Reforming Social Security and Medicare Will Need More than Just Tax Hikes
Creative options including changes in Social Security benefits growth for higher earners and reforms to how Medicare compensates for health services should be on the table, along with broad-based and well-structured tax reforms.
6 min read
Latest SALT Deduction Cap Proposal Increases Budget Deficit, Creates New Tax Cliffs, and is Regressive
From a revenue standpoint, about $9 billion of the $11.7 billion in lost revenue would accrue to joint filers earning more than $200,000.
5 min read
Five Facts to Know about the Bipartisan Tax Deal
The U.S. House of Representatives has passed a highly anticipated bipartisan tax deal. The Tax Relief for American Workers and Families Act now awaits action in the Senate.
6 min read
Permanent Bipartisan Tax Deal Would Grow Economy but Create Revenue Challenges
Examining the revenue, economic, and distributional effects of a hypothetical deal with permanent tax policy changes shows the longer-run trade-offs policymakers would face.
5 min read
Details and Analysis of the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024
The House Ways and Means Committee has advanced a tax deal to the House floor that would temporarily—and retroactively—restore two major business deductions for cost recovery and expand the child tax credit through 2025.
10 min read
Saving Americans’ Dwindling Savings
Americans are saving less. While the U.S. saving rate has regularly lagged behind its peers, it has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels. Increasingly, people are turning to credit cards to fill the gaps in their budgets.
Policymakers Must Weigh the Revenue, Distributional, and Economic Trade-Offs of SALT Deduction Cap Design Options
The fate of the $10,000 cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions remains uncertain, with some policymakers pushing for an increase or repeal of the cap before its scheduled expiration in 2026.
6 min read
Tax Extenders in 2023: Three Major Business Provisions and an Expanded Child Credit?
In Congress, both parties have expressed widespread support for improving the treatment of R&D and potentially extending some or all of the major business provisions, while the White House and congressional Democrats have indicated interest in an expanded child tax credit, suggesting potential for a deal.
6 min read
Tim Scott Suspends 2024 Campaign but the Need for His Cost Recovery Tax Policies Remains
While not perfect, Senator Scott provided a more detailed and sound tax plan than other 2024 candidates, and he prioritized pro-growth tax reforms like full cost recovery.
4 min read
Dwindling Savings and Increasing Financial Stress Highlights Need for Tax Reforms
The uncertain future of American finances in a time of potential economic instability points to the need for tax reforms that encourage individuals to save and build financial security in a relatively simple way, such as through universal savings accounts.
6 min read
Details and Analysis of Making the 2017 Tax Reforms Permanent
Lawmakers will have to weigh the economic, revenue, and distributional trade-offs of extending or making permanent the various provisions of the TCJA as they decide how to approach the upcoming expirations. A commitment to growth, opportunity, and fiscal responsibility should guide the approach.
18 min read
How Taxing Consumption Would Improve Long-Term Opportunity and Well-Being for Families and Children
Income taxes impose steeper economic costs, and often steeper administrative and compliance costs, than consumption taxes. Moving to a consumption tax would end the tax bias against saving and investment and provide an opportunity to greatly simplify anti-poverty programs embedded in the tax code.
45 min read
County Data Shows Repealing SALT Cap Would Benefit High-Income Earners
Any move to repeal the cap or enhance the deduction would disproportionately benefit higher earners, making the tax code more regressive.
5 min read
U.S. Businesses Face Growing Impact from Tightened Interest Deductions and Higher Interest Rates
As Congress continues its work on the fiscal year 2024 appropriations process and associated tax provisions, it should consider an often-overlooked tax provision: the limitation on deductions companies take for interest payments.
7 min read
How the Moore Supreme Court Case Could Reshape Taxation of Unrealized Income
A major case pending before the U.S. Supreme Court (Moore v. United States) is calling into question provisions on large portions of the U.S. tax base which could quickly become legally uncertain, putting significant revenue at stake.
7 min read
Inconsistent Tax Treatment of Student Loan Debt Forgiveness Creates Confusion
Starting on September 1st, federal student loan payments will resume after a three-and-a-half-year pause on payments and accrued interest following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
6 min read
Details and Analysis of the American Families and Jobs Act
Details and analysis of the latest House GOP tax plan, the American Families and Jobs Act. Learn more about the House Republican tax plan.
7 min read
A Tax Reform Plan for Growth and Opportunity: Details & Analysis
This tax reform plan would boost long-run GDP by 2.5%, grow wages by 1.4%, and add 1.3M jobs, all while collecting a similar amount of tax revenue as the current code and reducing the long-run debt burden.
38 min read
Details and Analysis of President Biden’s Fiscal Year 2024 Budget Proposal
According to our analysis, President Biden’s budget would reduce long-run economic output by about 1.3 percent and eliminate 335,000 FTE jobs. See what tax policies the president is proposing.
17 min read