President’s Trump’s policies would throw high-tax states a life raft as they swim against the tide—before potentially hitting all states with a tariff-induced economic tsunami that could force lawmakers’ hands and reverse recent tax relief.
Rather than permanently expanding a complicated, nonneutral tax break, Congress should prioritize permanence for the most neutral and pro-growth policies like bonus depreciation and R&D expensing.
6 min read
Our preliminary analysis finds the tax provisions increase long-run GDP by 0.8 percent and reduce federal tax revenue by $4.0 trillion from 2025 through 2034 on a conventional basis before added interest costs.
9 min read
As the Senate considers next steps for the House-passed “big, beautiful” tax bill, the battle lines have been drawn for a showdown over the state and local tax (SALT) deduction.
From generous tax breaks to costly trade-offs, the House GOP’s One, Big, Beautiful Bill has a little of everything. It’s a sweeping attempt to extend key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act before they expire in 2026—but what’s actually in it?
It’s been a whirlwind 24 hours in tariff news: first, a trade court blocked Trump’s sweeping new tariffs, calling them executive overreach. Then, a federal appeals court reinstated them—at least for now. We break down what happened, what’s next, and why it matters.
Florida’s latest property tax debate highlights the familiar challenge of prioritizing pro-growth tax policy while tackling rising property tax burdens.
6 min read
For owners of pass-through businesses, the reconciliation package (1) raises the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap, (2) denies the benefit of pass-through entity-level taxes that had previously worked around the SALT cap for such pass-through businesses, and (3) increases the Section 199A deduction for qualifying pass-through entities.
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The House of Representatives just passed President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” marking a critical step in the Republican tax agenda. At first glance, the bill might appear to complete the legacy of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). But it falls short of emulating the TCJA’s core strengths in two key respects: it doesn’t prioritize economic growth, and it doesn’t simplify the tax code.
As the US House hashes out its “One, Big, Beautiful Bill,” statehouse lawmakers are watching closely, given the impact of both its tax and spending provisions on state budgets.
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Letting the SALT cap slip further upwards would undercut the TCJA’s long-term legacy, worsening the fiscal outlook of the tax package and providing an unneeded benefit to higher earners.
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We break down the House GOP’s One, Big, Beautiful Bill—a sweeping tax package designed to extend key parts of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act before they expire in 2026.
Lawmakers have a prime opportunity to achieve a more stable economy through the debate about the tax code that is now ramping up.
As lawmakers continue to debate the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” they should abandon temporary and complex policy in favor of simplicity and stability.
4 min read
The tax bill prioritizes politics over economic growth, writes Daniel Bunn.
Tax simplification has two aspects. The first is a code without a mess of targeted provisions for various social policy goals. The second is a code with provisions that are simple and easy to comply with. The bill succeeds at the first, but fails at the second.
7 min read
According to the latest economic data from the US Census Bureau, the average per capita state and local tax burden is $7,109. However, collections vary widely by state, reflecting differences in tax rates and bases, natural resource endowments, the scale and scope of taxable economic activity in each state, and residents’ political preferences.
5 min read
Political popularity isn’t always a reliable gauge of sound policy—and that’s certainly true of President Donald Trump’s idea to eliminate taxes on tips, bonuses, and overtime pay.
Pairing permanent TCJA individual tax cuts with new limits on business SALT deductions would shrink the economy, reduce American incomes, and increase the federal budget deficit, undermining the policy goals of TCJA permanence.
3 min read
What happens when the country’s most important retirement program runs out of money? Social Security faces a funding crisis by 2035. We unpack how the system works, why it’s in trouble, and what fixes could keep it afloat.