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Economic and Tax Modeling

The Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy takes a quantitative approach to analyzing the economic, budgetary, and distributional impact of important campaign, legislative, and other popular tax proposals using our dynamic Taxes and Growth (TAG) macroeconomic model.

The mission of our economic and tax modeling program is to educate lawmakers and the public about the key trade-offs in tax policy, the real-world impact of those trade-offs on taxpayers and our economy, and the best options for achieving principled and pro-growth tax reform.

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Elizabeth Warren real corporate profits tax, Senator warren real corporate profits tax, elizabeth warren corporate tax proposal, Senator warren corporate tax proposal

An Analysis of Senator Warren’s ‘Real Corporate Profits Tax’

Sen. Elizabeth Warren introduced a 7 percent surtax on corporate profits called the “Real Corporate Profits Tax.” We estimate that this tax would reduce the incentive to invest in the United States, and result in a 1.9 percent smaller economy, a 3.3 percent smaller capital stock, and 1.5 percent lower wages. The surtax would raise $872 billion between 2020 and 2029 on a conventional basis and $476 billion on a dynamic basis. The tax would make the tax code more progressive, but it would fall on taxpayers in every income group.

9 min read
Wyden 199a pass-through deduction proposal Democrats proposed to expand child tax credit as part of covid relief package. Analysis of the “SALT Act” state and local tax deduction cap, Restoring Tax Fairness to States and Localities Act, SALT cap repeal, eliminate SALT cap

Analysis of the “SALT Act”

Lawmakers recently introduced a bill to repeal the $10,000 cap on the state and local deduction (SALT) and raise the top tax rate on ordinary income from 37 percent to 39.6 percent.

4 min read
Analysis of the Cost-of-Living Refund Act of 2019 Sherrod Brown Ro Khanna EITC expansion low-income tax credit

Analysis of the Cost-of-Living Refund Act of 2019

We estimate that a new proposal to expand the EITC would reduce federal revenue by $1.8 trillion and decrease long-run GDP by 0.29 percent, while boosting labor force participation for low-income tax filers by 822,788 full-time equivalent jobs.

10 min read