Option 21:

Reform the Earned Income Tax Credit and Child Tax Credit

Topline Estimates

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
-<0.05%
Gross National Product (GNP)
-0.1%
Full-Time Equivalent Jobs
-14K
Wage Rate
-<0.05%
Capital Stock
-<0.05%
Conventional Primary Deficit Change (10‑Yr)
+$631.8B
Dynamic Primary Deficit Change (10‑Yr)
+$689.3B
Dynamic Total Deficit Change (10‑Yr)
+$859.7B

Source: Tax Foundation General Equilibrium Model.

This option reforms the earned income tax credit (EITC) and child tax credit (CTC) by removing the EITC’s variation for number of dependents and expanding the CTC.

Under this option, the EITC phases in at 10 percent up to $1,000 for single filers and $2,000 for joint filers (inflation-adjusted) and phases out at 10 percent beginning at $20,000 single and $40,000 joint. This option makes the CTC fully refundable, with a maximum credit of $3,750 and an additional $750 credit for children under 6. The increases in the credit amounts above the baseline child tax credit ($2,200 in 2026) phase out at 5 percent when income exceeds $85,000 single or $170,000 joint.

These changes would increase average CTC size for lower-income taxpayers but would increase marginal tax rates by eliminating the phase-in and extending the phase-out ranges. Combined with changes in the EITC, marginal tax rates on income would rise slightly overall, while benefits from the refundable credits would also rise overall.

On a conventional basis, this option would increase the primary deficit by $631.8 billion over the budget window. Long-run output would decline slightly, and long-run GNP would decline by 0.1 percent as the larger budget deficit would increase federal government borrowing, and more interest payments would flow to foreigners. On a dynamic basis, the primary deficit would increase by $689.3 billion from 2027 through 2036, $57.5 billion more than the conventional estimate. Incorporating changes in interest costs, the publicly held debt-to-GDP ratio would be higher than baseline, reaching 179.2 percent by 2056.

On average, in 2036, taxpayers would see increases in their after-tax incomes of 0.3 percent, with the bottom three quintiles experiencing the largest benefit. On a long-run dynamic basis, taxpayers would see a 0.3 percent increase on average.

Modeled Results

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About the Authors

Erica York Tax Foundation
Expert

Erica York

Vice President of Federal Tax Policy

Erica York is Vice President of Federal Tax Policy with Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy. Her analysis has been featured in The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Politico, and other national and international media outlets.

Garrett Watson Tax Foundation
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Garrett Watson

Director of Policy Analysis

Garrett Watson is Director of Policy Analysis at the Tax Foundation, where he conducts research on federal and state tax policy. His work has been featured in The Washington Post, The Atlantic, Politico, the Associated Press and other major outlets.

Huaqun Li Tax Foundation
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Huaqun Li

Senior Economist, Director of Modeling Projects

Dr. Huaqun Li is Senior Economist, Director of Modeling Projects at the Tax Foundation. She focuses on developing and maintaining the Foundation’s Taxes and Growth Model, which models the budgetary and economic effects of changes to federal tax policy.

William McBride or Will McBride Tax Foundation
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William McBride

Chief Economist & Stephen J. Entin Fellow in Economics

Dr. William McBride is the Chief Economist & Stephen J. Entin Fellow in Economics at the Tax Foundation, where he oversees major research projects primarily related to reforming the federal tax code, advancing sound tax policy, and improving the federal government’s fiscal outlook.

Alex Durante Tax Foundation
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Alex Durante

Senior Economist

Alex Durante is a Senior Economist at the Tax Foundation, working on federal tax policy and model development. Alex worked as a research assistant at the Federal Reserve Board and served as a staff economist on the Council of Economic Advisers.

Alex Muresianu Tax Foundation
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Alex Muresianu

Senior Policy Analyst

Alex Muresianu is a Senior Policy Analyst at the Tax Foundation, focused on federal tax policy. Previously working on the federal team as an intern in the summer of 2018 and as a research assistant in summer 2020. He attended Tufts University, graduating with a degree in economics and minors in finance and political science.

Peter Van Ness Tax Foundation

Peter Van Ness

Research Software Developer

Peter Van Ness is a Research Software Developer at the Tax Foundation working on federal tax policy and model development. Peter previously worked as a research assistant at another think tank and as a data analyst at a consulting firm.

Aleksei Shilov Tax Foundation Research Software Developer

Aleksei Shilov

Research Software Developer

Aleksei Shilov is a Research Software developer at the Tax Foundation working on economic model development and federal tax policy. Aleksei joined the Tax Foundation as an intern in January 2025. He holds a B.S. in computer science and a minor in economics from Northeastern University and is currently based in Boston, MA.

Daniel Bunn Tax Foundation President & CEO
Expert

Daniel Bunn

President and CEO

Daniel Bunn is President and CEO of the Tax Foundation. Daniel has been with the organization since 2018 and, prior to becoming President, successfully built its Center for Global Tax Policy, expanding the Tax Foundation’s reach and impact around the world. Prior to joining the Tax Foundation, Daniel worked in the United States Senate at the Joint Economic Committee.