FAQ: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act Tax Changes
Our experts explain how this major tax legislation may affect you and how policymakers can better improve the tax code.
24 min read
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How Does the Additional Senior Deduction Compare to No Tax on Social Security?
The increased senior deduction with the phaseout would deliver a larger tax cut to lower-middle- and middle-income taxpayers compared to exempting all Social Security benefits from income taxation and would not weaken the trust funds as much. But given the temporary nature of the policy, it would increase the deficit-impact of the reconciliation bills without boosting long-run economic growth.
3 min read
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Short FormCongressional Tax Writers and Scorekeepers You Should Know
When you hear about tax policy, you may think of the IRS, the agency responsible for collecting federal taxes. But who is responsible for drafting, reviewing, assessing, and passing tax legislation at the federal level?
4 min read
What Happens If Social Security Runs Out in 2035?
What happens when the country’s most important retirement program runs out of money? Social Security faces a funding crisis by 2035. We unpack how the system works, why it’s in trouble, and what fixes could keep it afloat.
Five Things To Know About Trump’s Income Tax and Tariff Idea
President Trump has repeatedly floated the idea of entirely replacing the federal income tax with new tariffs. Recently, he has said that when tariff revenues come in, he will use them to replace or substantially cut income taxes for people making under $200,000.
8 min read
The Unsustainable US Debt Course and Impacts of Potential Tax Changes
Given the poor state of the budget process and worsening debt trajectory, lawmakers should move boldly and quickly to address the issue, including via a fiscal commission process. Issues to consider should include reforms to both spending and taxes.
42 min read
All About That Base(line)
If lawmakers are serious about pro-growth policies and fiscal responsibility, they will need to put policies forward that achieve those goals. Simply adjusting the baseline doesn’t reduce actual deficits in the coming years.
7 min read
Summary of the Latest Federal Income Tax Data, 2025 Update
New IRS data shows the US federal income tax system continues to be progressive as high-income taxpayers pay the highest average income tax rates. Average tax rates for all income groups remain lower after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
6 min read
How the Payroll Tax Base Has Changed Over Time
The Social Security trust funds face looming insolvency if policymakers don’t reform the program. One issue that garners a lot of attention in the debate over solutions is the payroll tax cap.
3 min read
Questions About Tax Cuts, Tariffs, and Reconciliation After the Election
Fiscal pressures are likely to weigh heavily on lawmakers as they craft a tax reform package. That increased pressure could result in well-designed tax reform that prioritizes economic growth, simplicity, and stability, or it could encourage budget gimmicks and economically harmful offsets. Lawmakers should avoid the latter.
8 min read
Donald Trump Tax Plan Ideas: Details and Analysis
We estimate Trump’s proposed tariffs and partial retaliation from all trading partners would together offset more than two-thirds of the long-run economic benefit of his proposed tax cuts.
12 min read
Another Huge Federal Deficit in Fiscal Year 2024 Despite Surging Corporate and Other Tax Collections
While federal tax collections—especially corporate taxes—have reached historically high levels, these gains have not kept pace with escalating spending, particularly on debt interest, leading to a substantial and concerning budget deficit in FY24.
6 min read
The Crisis Our Candidates Keep Ignoring
By 2035, Social Security as we know it will largely be insolvent. If we want to fix the issue, it’s time for our parties’ leaders to reform the program so it can be around for the long run for all Americans.
Federal Fiscal System Is Very Progressive—and Getting More So—Latest CBO Report Shows (2024 Update)
CBO data shows that the federal fiscal system—both taxes and direct federal benefits—is getting more progressive and redistributive in 2024.
7 min read
Social Security: Lessons for Reform
Social Security is by far the largest federal government spending program. The latest trustees report shows the program is on a fiscally unsustainable path that will exacerbate the US debt crisis if its imbalances are not addressed in the near term.
33 min read
How Do Governments Raise Revenue?
The government provides various services at the federal, state, and local levels. How are they paid for? Taxes.
Gov. Tim Walz Raised Taxes as Most Governors Cut Them
Gov. Walz’s tax policy record is notable because of how much it contrasts with broader national trends. In recent years, most governors have championed tax cuts. Walz, rare among his peers, chose tax increases.
5 min read
Trump’s “No Tax on Social Security” Proposal Is Unsound and Fiscally Irresponsible
Exempting Social Security benefits from income tax would increase the budget deficit by about $1.6 trillion over 10 years, accelerate the insolvency of the Social Security and Medicare trust funds, and create a new hole in the income tax without a sound policy rationale.
6 min read
Sources of Personal Income, Tax Year 2021
Reviewing reported income helps to understand the composition of the federal government’s revenue base and how Americans earn their taxable income. The individual income tax, the federal government’s largest source of revenue, is largely a tax on labor.
9 min read
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Short FormCan Economic Growth Help Solve Our Debt Problem?
Improving the country’s fiscal situation won’t be comfortable, but economic growth can help cushion the blow.
3 min read