Our preliminary analysis finds the tax provisions increase long-run GDP by 0.8 percent and reduce federal tax revenue by $4.0 trillion from 2025 through 2034 on a conventional basis before added interest costs.
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Republicans have advanced legislation to extend many provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) alongside dozens of new provisions. Any comprehensive tax legislation is going to have its wrinkles, and the “One, Big, Beautiful Bill” is no different.
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The House of Representatives just passed President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” marking a critical step in the Republican tax agenda. At first glance, the bill might appear to complete the legacy of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). But it falls short of emulating the TCJA’s core strengths in two key respects: it doesn’t prioritize economic growth, and it doesn’t simplify the tax code.
As the current tax package stands, the House’s use of temporary policy is leaving most of the economic growth opportunities on the table.
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As lawmakers continue to debate the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” they should abandon temporary and complex policy in favor of simplicity and stability.
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Catastrophic rhetoric about US manufacturing is not justified. The tariffs are extremely counterproductive. Still, all is not well in the US manufacturing sector. What should we do?
7 min read
As Congress debates expensing and other policies impacting business investment, lawmakers should consider the importance of business investment in research and development (R&D) as a driver for economic growth. Recent studies suggest that the economic benefits of R&D spending are even greater than previously understood.
7 min read
In a perilous economic and fiscal environment, with instability created by Trump’s trade war and publicly held debt on track to surpass the highest levels ever recorded within five years, a lot rides on how Republicans navigate tax and spending reforms in reconciliation.
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The Tax Foundation uses and maintains a General Equilibrium Model, known as our Taxes and Growth (TAG) Model to simulate the effects of government tax and spending policies on the economy and on government revenues and budgets.
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Permanently extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would boost long-run economic output by 1.1 percent, the capital stock by 0.7 percent, wages by 0.5 percent, and hours worked by 847,000 full-time equivalent jobs.
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The next government needs to prioritize measures to improve Germany’s competitiveness as an investment location.
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Compromising on the timing and availability of expensing—or offsetting the revenue losses by worsening other parts of the tax code—would squander an opportunity to craft a fiscally responsible, pro-growth tax reform.
The Trump administration appears to be moving in a “reciprocal” policy direction despite the significant negative economic consequences for American consumers of across-the-board tariffs on goods coming into the US. However, the EU’s VAT system should not be used as a justification for retaliatory tariffs.
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As lawmakers work through the reconciliation process, permanently enacting improvements to deductions for capital investment and research and development (R&D) costs will create an economically powerful package.
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With so much emphasis on politics and procedure, the actual policy debate suffers.
This week, the incoming Trump administration issued a day-one executive order on the global minimum tax agreement known as Pillar Two, which seeks to ensure multinational corporations pay at least 15 percent in income tax.
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While tariffs are often presented as tools to enhance US competitiveness, a long history of evidence and recent experience shows they lead to increased costs for consumers and unprotected producers and harmful retaliation, which outweighs the benefits afforded to protected industries.
As we prepare for the tax code’s “move,” it’s time to start cleaning out the proverbial attic of our messy system. For the sake of our economy, moves toward growth must win the day.
Tariffs are almost always the main issue connecting the tax reform debate with strategic competition with China. However, some provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) should get some of that attention, especially the 100 percent bonus depreciation and the research and development (R&D) amortization.
Fiscal pressures are likely to weigh heavily on lawmakers as they craft a tax reform package. That increased pressure could result in well-designed tax reform that prioritizes economic growth, simplicity, and stability, or it could encourage budget gimmicks and economically harmful offsets. Lawmakers should avoid the latter.
8 min read