Budget Reconciliation: Tracking the 2025 Trump Tax Cuts
Our experts are providing the latest details and analysis of proposed federal tax policy changes.
11 min readPresident Trump has proposed a number of tax proposals, including imposing a universal baseline tariff on all US imports, imposing a 60 percent tariff on all US imports from China, making the individual and estate tax cuts of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) permanent, maintaining the 21 percent corporate income tax rate, and making all tip income tax-exempt. From analyzing the economic impact of US tariffs and retaliatory actions to the upcoming TCJA expirations, Tax Foundation experts continue to serve as trusted thought leaders, providing research, modeling, analysis, and commentary on how the Trump tax proposals would impact U.S. competitiveness, economic growth, government revenue, and everyday taxpayers. The posts below include our research and analysis on a variety of Trump tax proposals. You can also explore our economic modeling via Options for Reforming America’s Tax Code and our 10 Tax Reforms for Growth and Opportunity. See Trump’s latest trade actions with our Tariff Tracker and explore the latest tax developments and analysis our Budget Reconciliation Tracker.
Our experts are providing the latest details and analysis of proposed federal tax policy changes.
11 min readThe tariffs amount to an average tax increase of nearly $1,200 per US household in 2025.
33 min readUnless Congress acts, Americans are in for a tax hike in 2026.
3 min readWe estimate Trump’s proposed tariffs and partial retaliation from all trading partners would together offset more than two-thirds of the long-run economic benefit of his proposed tax cuts.
12 min readExempting overtime would unnecessarily complicate the tax code, increase compliance and administrative costs, and reduce neutrality by favoring certain work arrangements over others.
5 min read“No tax on tips” might be a catchy idea on the campaign trail. But it could create plenty of headaches, from figuring out tips on previously untipped services to an unexpectedly large loss of federal revenue.
6 min readUsing tariff policy to reallocate investment and jobs is a costly mistake—that’s a history lesson we should not forget.
6 min readPresident Trump has repeatedly floated the idea of entirely replacing the federal income tax with new tariffs. Recently, he has said that when tariff revenues come in, he will use them to replace or substantially cut income taxes for people making under $200,000.
8 min readGiven the poor state of the budget process and worsening debt trajectory, lawmakers should move boldly and quickly to address the issue, including via a fiscal commission process. Issues to consider should include reforms to both spending and taxes.
42 min readAs the US House hashes out its “One, Big, Beautiful Bill,” statehouse lawmakers are watching closely, given the impact of both its tax and spending provisions on state budgets.
12 min readLetting the SALT cap slip further upwards would undercut the TCJA’s long-term legacy, worsening the fiscal outlook of the tax package and providing an unneeded benefit to higher earners.
4 min readWhile Congress works on the “One, Big, Beautiful Bill” to cut taxes, President Trump has imposed significantly higher taxes by placing tariffs on more than 70 percent of US imports.
2 min readRepublicans have advanced legislation to extend many provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) alongside dozens of new provisions. Any comprehensive tax legislation is going to have its wrinkles, and the “One, Big, Beautiful Bill” is no different.
7 min readAs lawmakers continue to debate the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” they should abandon temporary and complex policy in favor of simplicity and stability.
4 min readThe tariffs amount to an average tax increase of nearly $1,200 per US household in 2025.
33 min readOur experts are providing the latest details and analysis of proposed federal tax policy changes.
11 min readOur preliminary analysis finds the tax provisions included in the May 12 text would increase long-run GDP by 0.6 percent and reduce federal tax revenue by $4.0 trillion from 2025 through 2034 on a conventional basis before added interest costs.
7 min readCatastrophic rhetoric about US manufacturing is not justified. The tariffs are extremely counterproductive. Still, all is not well in the US manufacturing sector. What should we do?
7 min readPresident Trump has repeatedly floated the idea of entirely replacing the federal income tax with new tariffs. Recently, he has said that when tariff revenues come in, he will use them to replace or substantially cut income taxes for people making under $200,000.
8 min read