The economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic poses a triple challenge for tax policy in the United States. Lawmakers are tasked with crafting a policy response that will accelerate the economic recovery, reduce the mounting deficit, and protect the most vulnerable.
To assist lawmakers in navigating the challenge, and to help the American public understand the tax changes being proposed, the Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy modeled how 70 potential changes to the tax code would affect the U.S. economy, distribution of the tax burden, and federal revenue.
In tax policy there is an ever-present trade-off among how much revenue a tax will raise, who bears the burden of a tax, and what impact a tax will have on economic growth. Armed with the information in our new book, Options for Reforming America’s Tax Code 2.0, policymakers can debate the relative merits and trade-offs of each option to improve the tax code in a post-pandemic world.
CBO Report on R&D and Tax Policy in the Pharmaceutical Industry
In a new report, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analyzes federal policies that influence R&D spending in the pharmaceutical industry. The report highlights how taxes affect R&D investment incentives, underscoring the importance of structuring the tax code so that it is not biased against investment.
4 min readTwo Important Issues that Must Be Resolved in “Global Tax Reform”
If the U.S. is suggesting a 15 percent effective rate as the minimum acceptable rate for a global agreement, then the tax bases of the various minimum taxes adopted as part of the agreement should be aligned to minimize complexities and unintended consequences.
5 min readTax Policy Ideas in the Republican Study Committee Budget
While much of the tax policy now under debate aims to increase the tax burden on businesses, several policies in the newly released Republican Study Committee (RSC) budget for Fiscal Year 2022 focus on reducing the tax code’s barriers to investment and saving.
3 min readGILTI by Country Is Not as Simple as it Seems
If policymakers want a recipe to dramatically expand the complexity of U.S. international tax rules and the burden on U.S. multinational businesses, then a tax on foreign earnings calculated at the country level would be the way to do it. Alternatively, policymakers could focus on mitigating the unintended consequences of GILTI and other recent international tax rules.
5 min readHow Biden’s Corporate Tax Increases Could Make Tax Enforcement Harder
If Biden wants to reduce tax evasion, raising the corporate rate, increasing the incentives to engage in tax evasion, and creating a larger tax advantage to becoming a pass-through business is counterproductive.
3 min readFinancing Infrastructure Spending with Corporate Tax Increases Would Stunt Economic Growth
The Biden administration’s American Jobs Plan proposal to fund infrastructure spending relies on a bet that the benefits outweigh the costs of a higher corporate tax burden. Using the Tax Foundation model, we find that this trade-off is a bad one for the U.S. economy, resulting in reduced GDP, less capital investment, fewer jobs, and lower wages.
3 min readTax Policy Lessons from Down Under
This week the Australian government released its latest budget proposal and two policies that stand out in its fiscal response to the pandemic should be helpful as the economic engine of the country turns back on. The first is full expensing for some investments and the second is the introduction of a loss carryback provision. The new budget takes both these temporary policies and extends them into 2023.
2 min readTaxing Unrealized Capital Gains at Death Is Unlikely to Raise Revenue Advertised
As part of the tax proposals in President Biden’s American Families Plan, unrealized capital gains over $1 million would be taxed at death. However, this policy would likely raise less revenue than advocates expect after considering the proposal’s impact on taxpayer behavior, including capital gains realizations, and historical capital gains and estate tax revenue collections.
5 min readMany Small Businesses Could Be Impacted by Biden Corporate Tax Proposals
Policymakers should recognize that corporate tax hikes will not only impact large firms, but many smaller and younger firms as well. Considering that many of these smaller firms are significant contributors to net job growth, raising corporate taxes at this time would not be conducive for a speedy economic recovery.
2 min readTreasury Rule on State Tax Cuts Limitation Raises New Questions
Today, the U.S. Treasury issued an interim final rule on the $350 billion in State and Local Fiscal Recovery Funds provided under the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA). The proposed rule resolves several important questions but continues to involve the federal government in state finances at an extraordinary level.
7 min read