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Evaluating U.S. Tax Reform Options & Trade-Offs

The economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic poses a triple challenge for tax policy in the United States. Lawmakers are tasked with crafting a policy response that will accelerate the economic recovery, reduce the mounting deficit, and protect the most vulnerable.

To assist lawmakers in navigating the challenge, and to help the American public understand the tax changes being proposed, the Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy modeled how 70 potential changes to the tax code would affect the U.S. economy, distribution of the tax burden, and federal revenue.

In tax policy there is an ever-present trade-off among how much revenue a tax will raise, who bears the burden of a tax, and what impact a tax will have on economic growth. Armed with the information in our new book, Options for Reforming America’s Tax Code 2.0, policymakers can debate the relative merits and trade-offs of each option to improve the tax code in a post-pandemic world.

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Taxing Unrealized Capital Gains at Death Is Unlikely to Raise Revenue Advertised

As part of the tax proposals in President Biden’s American Families Plan, unrealized capital gains over $1 million would be taxed at death. However, this policy would likely raise less revenue than advocates expect after considering the proposal’s impact on taxpayer behavior, including capital gains realizations, and historical capital gains and estate tax revenue collections.

5 min read
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Many Small Businesses Could Be Impacted by Biden Corporate Tax Proposals

Policymakers should recognize that corporate tax hikes will not only impact large firms, but many smaller and younger firms as well. Considering that many of these smaller firms are significant contributors to net job growth, raising corporate taxes at this time would not be conducive for a speedy economic recovery.

2 min read
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Treasury Rule on State Tax Cuts Limitation Raises New Questions

Today, the U.S. Treasury issued an interim final rule on the $350 billion in State and Local Fiscal Recovery Funds provided under the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA). The proposed rule resolves several important questions but continues to involve the federal government in state finances at an extraordinary level.

7 min read
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Recent Analysis Explores Pillar 1 Risks and the Potential for Disputes

As countries move closer to agreement on how the OECD Pillar 1 Amount A will work and which companies will be impacted by it, it is incredibly important for policymakers to continue to evaluate not just the intended effects but also the potential unintended consequences.

6 min read
Evaluating Options to Help Low-Income Households Lift After-Tax Incomes

Evaluating Options to Help Low-Income Households

While strong economic growth—fueled by higher levels of investment, productivity, and jobs—will lift after-tax incomes over time, policies that provide relief by immediately boosting after-tax incomes of lower-income households are also available. As lawmakers consider such policies, they should keep in mind the trade-offs among them.

4 min read