Tracking the Impact of the Trump Tariffs & Trade War
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
55 min readThe Tax Foundation is the world’s leading independent tax policy 501(c)(3) nonprofit. For over 85 years, our mission has remained the same: to improve lives through tax policies that lead to greater economic growth and opportunity.
Our Center for Federal Tax Policy, Center for State Tax Policy, and Center for Global Tax Policy each produce timely and high-quality research and analysis that influences the debate toward economically principled tax policies. Our experts are continuously analyzing the day’s most relevant tax policy topics and are relied upon routinely for presentations, testimony, and media appearances on tax issues spanning every level of government.
Likewise, providing journalists, taxpayers, and policymakers with basic data on taxes and spending has been a cornerstone of the Tax Foundation’s educational mission since its founding. As we wrote in our first edition of Facts & Figures in 1941, “Facts give a broader perspective; facts dissipate predilections and prejudices…[and are] an important step to meet the challenge presented by the broad problems of public finance.”
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
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How will recent federal tax changes affect you?
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The State Tax Competitiveness Index enables policymakers, taxpayers, and business leaders to gauge how their states’ tax systems compare. While there are many ways to show how much state governments collect in taxes, the Index evaluates how well states structure their tax systems and provides a road map for improvement.
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Lawmakers can constrain the growth of property taxes without creating new problems. But the details matter.
Our experts explain how this major tax legislation may affect you and how policymakers can better improve the tax code.
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For Congress, work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is done. But in state capitols, the work has not yet begun. Many of the tax changes in the federal reconciliation act flow through to state tax codes—automatically in some states, and subject to an update in states’ Internal Revenue Code conformity date in others.
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As a rule, an individual’s income can be taxed both by the state in which the taxpayer resides and by the state in which the taxpayer’s income is earned.
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Notably, the OBBBA makes permanent the individual tax changes first put in place by the TCJA, which avoids a tax hike on an estimated 62 percent of tax filers in 2026.
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Facts & Figures serves as a one-stop state tax data resource that compares all 50 states on over 40 measures of tax rates, collections, burdens, and more.
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While there are many factors that affect a country’s economic performance, taxes play an important role. A well-structured tax code is easy for taxpayers to comply with and can promote economic development while raising sufficient revenue for a government’s priorities.
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New IRS data shows the US federal income tax system continues to be progressive as high-income taxpayers pay the highest average income tax rates. Average tax rates for all income groups remain lower after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
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The variety of approaches to taxation among European countries creates a need to evaluate these systems relative to each other. For that purpose, we have developed the European Tax Policy Scorecard—a relative comparison of European countries’ tax systems.
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The state with the highest combined corporate income tax rate is New Jersey, with a combined rate of 30.1 percent. Corporations in Alaska, California, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania face combined corporate income tax rates at or above 28 percent.
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Social insurance taxes are the second largest tax revenue source in European OECD countries, at an average of 29.5 percent of total tax revenue.
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In addition to the federal estate tax, with a top rate of 40 percent, some states levy an additional estate or inheritance tax. Twelve states and Washington, D.C. impose estate taxes and six impose inheritance taxes. Maryland is the only state to impose both. Most states have been moving away from estate or inheritance taxes or have raised their exemption levels, as estate taxes without the federal exemption hurt a state’s competitiveness.
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Congress chose to exempt forgiven Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans from federal income taxation. Many states, however, remain on track to tax them by either treating forgiven loans as taxable income, denying the deduction for expenses paid for using forgiven loans, or both.
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Denmark relies the most on revenue from individual income taxes, at 52.4 percent of total tax revenue, followed by Iceland and Ireland at 40.8 percent and 31.5 percent, respectively.
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In the United States, individual income taxes (federal, state, and local) are the primary source of tax revenue, at 41.5 percent of total tax revenue. Social insurance taxes make up the second-largest share, at 24.9 percent, followed by consumption taxes, at 17.6 percent, and property taxes, at 12.1 percent.
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Individual income taxes are a major source of state government revenue, accounting for 37 percent of state tax collections in fiscal year (FY) 2017. Several states had notable individual income tax changes in 2020: Arizona, Arkansas, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
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Despite declining corporate income tax rates over the last 30 years in Europe (and other parts of the world), average revenue from corporate income taxes as a share of total tax revenue has not changed significantly compared to 1990.
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Developed countries have on average become more reliant on consumption taxes and less reliant on individual income taxes. These policy changes matter, considering that consumption-based taxes raise revenue with less distortionary effects than taxes on income.
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Sources of state revenue have come under closer scrutiny in light of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, as different tax types have differing volatility and economic impact—although even beyond these unique circumstances, it is important for policymakers to understand the trade-offs associated with different sources of tax revenue.
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By failing to keep pace with modern consumption patterns, sales taxes have become less neutral, less equitable, and less economically efficient over time.
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Belgium, Finland, France, Ireland, Italy, Poland, Spain, Switzerland, Turkey, and the United Kingdom currently levy a type of financial transaction tax
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The latest IRS data shows that the U.S. federal individual income tax continued to be progressive, borne primarily by the highest income earners.
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North Carolina’s 2.5 percent corporate tax rate is the lowest in the country, followed by Missouri (4 percent) and North Dakota (4.31 percent). Seven other states impose top rates at or below 5 percent: Florida (4.458 percent), Colorado (4.55 percent), Arizona (4.9 percent), Utah (4.95 percent), and Kentucky, Mississippi, and South Carolina (5 percent).
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Value-added taxes (VAT) make up approximately one-fifth of total tax revenues in Europe. However, European countries differ significantly in how efficiently they raise VAT revenues. One way to measure a country’s VAT efficiency is the VAT Gap.
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Newly published data from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) shows that the first round of economic impact payments primarily benefited households earning less than $100,000.
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Consumption taxes (like sales taxes) are more economically neutral than taxes on capital and income because they target only current consumption. Consumption taxes are generally more stable than income taxes in economic downturns as well.
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Some lawmakers have expressed interest in repealing the SALT cap, which was originally imposed as part of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) in late 2017. It is important to understand who benefits from the SALT deduction as it currently exists, and who would benefit from the deduction if the cap were repealed.
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Many countries incentivize business investment in research and development (R&D), intending to foster innovation. A common approach is to provide direct government funding for R&D activity. However, a significant number of jurisdictions also offer R&D tax incentives.
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New Hampshire and Alaska rely most heavily on property taxes. Neither have individual income taxes, and in New Hampshire, significant government authority often vested in state government is devolved to the local level, where services are overwhelmingly funded by property taxes.
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