Tariff Tracker: Impact of Trump Tariffs & Trade War by the Numbers
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
51 min readThe Tax Foundation is the world’s leading independent tax policy 501(c)(3) nonprofit. For over 85 years, our mission has remained the same: to improve lives through tax policies that lead to greater economic growth and opportunity.
Our Center for Federal Tax Policy, Center for State Tax Policy, and Center for Global Tax Policy each produce timely and high-quality research and analysis that influences the debate toward economically principled tax policies. Our experts are continuously analyzing the day’s most relevant tax policy topics and are relied upon routinely for presentations, testimony, and media appearances on tax issues spanning every level of government.
Likewise, providing journalists, taxpayers, and policymakers with basic data on taxes and spending has been a cornerstone of the Tax Foundation’s educational mission since its founding. As we wrote in our first edition of Facts & Figures in 1941, “Facts give a broader perspective; facts dissipate predilections and prejudices…[and are] an important step to meet the challenge presented by the broad problems of public finance.”
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
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How will recent federal tax changes affect you?
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The State Tax Competitiveness Index enables policymakers, taxpayers, and business leaders to gauge how their states’ tax systems compare. While there are many ways to show how much state governments collect in taxes, the Index evaluates how well states structure their tax systems and provides a road map for improvement.
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Lawmakers can constrain the growth of property taxes without creating new problems. But the details matter.
Our experts explain how this major tax legislation may affect you and how policymakers can better improve the tax code.
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For Congress, work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is done. But in state capitols, the work has not yet begun. Many of the tax changes in the federal reconciliation act flow through to state tax codes—automatically in some states, and subject to an update in states’ Internal Revenue Code conformity date in others.
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As a rule, an individual’s income can be taxed both by the state in which the taxpayer resides and by the state in which the taxpayer’s income is earned.
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Notably, the OBBBA makes permanent the individual tax changes first put in place by the TCJA, which avoids a tax hike on an estimated 62 percent of tax filers in 2026.
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Facts & Figures serves as a one-stop state tax data resource that compares all 50 states on over 40 measures of tax rates, collections, burdens, and more.
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While there are many factors that affect a country’s economic performance, taxes play an important role. A well-structured tax code is easy for taxpayers to comply with and can promote economic development while raising sufficient revenue for a government’s priorities.
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New IRS data shows the US federal income tax system continues to be progressive as high-income taxpayers pay the highest average income tax rates. Average tax rates for all income groups remain lower after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
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The variety of approaches to taxation among European countries creates a need to evaluate these systems relative to each other. For that purpose, we have developed the European Tax Policy Scorecard—a relative comparison of European countries’ tax systems.
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Rather than pursuing temporary policies, policymakers should implement long-term, pro-growth tax reforms that stimulate economic activity and incentivize energy diversification by supporting private investment through full expensing.
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The sales tax is the second-largest source of state tax revenue and an important source of local tax revenue, but decades of base erosion threaten the tax’s share of overall revenue and have prompted years of countervailing rate increases.
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Lawmakers should consider compliance costs—not just tax liabilities—when evaluating reforms to business income taxation.
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By 2034, the gas tax and other car-related excise taxes are projected to raise less than half of the Highway Trust Fund’s outlays. While broader tax and spending reforms are necessary for overall deficit reduction, improving transportation funding would be a crucial step forward.
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Puerto Rico, a US territory with a limited ability to set its own tax policies, will be the first part of the US to be substantially affected by Pillar Two, the global tax agreement that seeks to establish a 15 percent minimum tax rate on corporate income.
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The European Union’s experience with high inflation highlights the critical need for adaptive fiscal policies. Best practices drawn from the academic literature recommend implementing automatic adjustment mechanisms with a certain periodicity and based on price increases.
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Many developed countries have repealed their wealth taxes in recent years for a variety of reasons. They raise little revenue, create high administrative costs, and induce an outflow of wealthy individuals and their money. Many policymakers have also recognized that high taxes on capital and wealth damage economic growth.
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Summer has arrived and states are beginning to implement policy changes that were enacted during the legislative session (or are being phased in over time).
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Portland residents face some of the country’s highest taxes on just about every class of income. In an era of dramatically increased mobility for individuals and businesses alike, that’s not a recipe for success.
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President Biden is proposing extraordinarily large tax hikes on businesses and the top 1 percent of earners that would put the US in a distinctly uncompetitive international position and threaten the health of the US economy.
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For over a century, lawmakers have exempted politically favored organizations and industries from the tax code. As a result, the tax-exempt nonprofit economy now comprises 15 percent of GDP, roughly equal to the fifth-largest economy in the world.
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To stay competitive in an increasingly mobile post-pandemic world, states and localities must learn from the tax policy successes and failures of their neighbors and communities across the nation.
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Universal savings accounts would boost savings for low-income households, allowing them to better withstand economic shocks, such as pandemics and recessions, and plan for major expenses, such as an expanded family, education, and housing needs.
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The recent push to increase taxes on the wealthy has gained significant traction across Europe. This report highlights the obstacles and complex interplay between tax policy and economic behavior, suggesting that simply raising tax rates on the wealthy might not yield the intended social benefits.
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The Section 232 tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum raised the cost of production for manufacturers, reducing employment in those industries, raising prices for consumers, and hurting exports.
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Policymakers should have two priorities in the upcoming economic policy debates: a larger economy and fiscal responsibility. Principled, pro-growth tax policy can help accomplish both.
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The outcome of the digital tax debate will likely shape domestic and international taxation for decades to come. Designing these policies based on sound principles will be essential in ensuring they can withstand challenges arising in the rapidly changing economic and technological environment of the 21st century.
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The global landscape of international corporate taxation is undergoing significant transformations as jurisdictions grapple with the difficulty of defining and apportioning corporate income for the purposes of tax.
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While the approaches differ, they share a reliance on similar linkages: new capital investment drives productivity growth, which grows the economy and raises wages for workers.
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