Tracking the Impact of the Trump Tariffs & Trade War
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
55 min readThe Tax Foundation is the world’s leading independent tax policy 501(c)(3) nonprofit. For over 85 years, our mission has remained the same: to improve lives through tax policies that lead to greater economic growth and opportunity.
Our Center for Federal Tax Policy, Center for State Tax Policy, and Center for Global Tax Policy each produce timely and high-quality research and analysis that influences the debate toward economically principled tax policies. Our experts are continuously analyzing the day’s most relevant tax policy topics and are relied upon routinely for presentations, testimony, and media appearances on tax issues spanning every level of government.
Likewise, providing journalists, taxpayers, and policymakers with basic data on taxes and spending has been a cornerstone of the Tax Foundation’s educational mission since its founding. As we wrote in our first edition of Facts & Figures in 1941, “Facts give a broader perspective; facts dissipate predilections and prejudices…[and are] an important step to meet the challenge presented by the broad problems of public finance.”
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
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How will recent federal tax changes affect you?
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The State Tax Competitiveness Index enables policymakers, taxpayers, and business leaders to gauge how their states’ tax systems compare. While there are many ways to show how much state governments collect in taxes, the Index evaluates how well states structure their tax systems and provides a road map for improvement.
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Lawmakers can constrain the growth of property taxes without creating new problems. But the details matter.
Our experts explain how this major tax legislation may affect you and how policymakers can better improve the tax code.
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For Congress, work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is done. But in state capitols, the work has not yet begun. Many of the tax changes in the federal reconciliation act flow through to state tax codes—automatically in some states, and subject to an update in states’ Internal Revenue Code conformity date in others.
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As a rule, an individual’s income can be taxed both by the state in which the taxpayer resides and by the state in which the taxpayer’s income is earned.
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Notably, the OBBBA makes permanent the individual tax changes first put in place by the TCJA, which avoids a tax hike on an estimated 62 percent of tax filers in 2026.
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Facts & Figures serves as a one-stop state tax data resource that compares all 50 states on over 40 measures of tax rates, collections, burdens, and more.
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While there are many factors that affect a country’s economic performance, taxes play an important role. A well-structured tax code is easy for taxpayers to comply with and can promote economic development while raising sufficient revenue for a government’s priorities.
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New IRS data shows the US federal income tax system continues to be progressive as high-income taxpayers pay the highest average income tax rates. Average tax rates for all income groups remain lower after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
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The variety of approaches to taxation among European countries creates a need to evaluate these systems relative to each other. For that purpose, we have developed the European Tax Policy Scorecard—a relative comparison of European countries’ tax systems.
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The state EV taxation landscape reflects the evolving transportation sector and the pressing need to address both fiscal gaps in road funding and environmental concerns.
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As Oktoberfest celebrations kick off around the world, let’s look at how much tax European Union (EU) countries add to the world’s favorite alcoholic beverage.
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Any move to repeal the cap or enhance the deduction would disproportionately benefit higher earners, making the tax code more regressive.
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Property taxes are the primary tool for financing local governments and generate a significant share of state and local revenues.
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In recent years, several countries have taken measures to reduce carbon emissions, including instituting environmental regulations, emissions trading systems, and carbon taxes. In 1990, Finland was the world’s first country to introduce a carbon tax.
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If the policy goal of taxing cigarettes is to encourage cessation, vapor taxation must be considered a part of that policy design.
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Carryover tax provisions help businesses “smooth” their risk and income, making the tax code more neutral across investments and over time.
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In tax year 2020, taxpayers claimed more than 159 million tax credits on their individual income tax returns worth a total of more than $277 billion. That was an increase of $35.3 billion from tax year 2019, largely due to an influx of pandemic relief administered through the tax code in 2020.
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California pumps out the highest state gas tax rate of 77.9 cents per gallon (cpg), followed by Illinois (66.5 cpg) and Pennsylvania (62.2 cpg).
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The aim of patent boxes is generally to encourage and attract local research and development (R&D) and to incentivize businesses to locate IP in the country. However, patent boxes can introduce another level of complexity to a tax system, and some recent research questions whether patent boxes are actually effective in driving innovation.
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However well-intended they may be, sales tax holidays remain the same as they always have been—ineffective and inefficient.
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Capital allowances play an important role in a country’s corporate tax base and can impact investment decisions—with far-reaching economic consequences.
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Compare the latest 2023 sales tax rates as of July 1st. Sales tax rate differentials can induce consumers to shop across borders or buy products online.
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As the EU pursues massive changes in public policy as part of its green transition, expect fuel taxes to be central to any policy discussions.
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Reviewing reported income helps to understand the composition of the federal government’s revenue base and how Americans earn their taxable income. The individual income tax, the federal government’s largest source of revenue, is largely a tax on labor.
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Taxes are the single most expensive ingredient in beer, costing more than the labor and raw materials combined.
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It’s unlikely these implemented and proposed windfall taxes will achieve their goals of raising additional revenues without distorting the market. Instead, they would penalize domestic production and punitively target certain industries without a sound tax base.
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Of all alcoholic beverages subject to taxation, stiff drinks—and all distilled spirits—face the stiffest tax rates. Like many excise taxes, the treatment of distilled spirits varies widely across the states.
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In most European OECD countries, corporate income is taxed twice, once at the entity level and once at the shareholder level.
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States are in a better position to attract business investment when they maintain competitive real property tax rates and avoid harmful taxes on tangible personal property, intangible property, wealth, and asset transfers.
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