Option 85:
Return the Estate Tax to Clinton-Era Parameters
Topline Estimates
Source: Tax Foundation General Equilibrium Model.
In 2026, the estate tax applies to estates above a $15 million ($30 million for joint filers) exemption threshold according to a rate schedule that quickly rises to 40 percent.
This option returns the estate tax to the estate tax law in effect in 2000. The estate tax per-person exemption is cut to $675,000 and no longer indexed for inflation, and the top tax rate rises to 55 percent for taxable estates and gifts. Reducing the per-person exemption and increasing the top tax rate on estates would significantly increase the scope of the estate tax, as well as the revenue it raises. It would also reduce returns to saving, encouraging consumption during a taxpayer’s lifetime rather than saving.
Domestic saving would fall, and foreign investment into the US would increase, causing more of the returns to American investment to flow to foreigners. The smaller budget deficit would reduce federal government borrowing and interest payments to foreigners, offsetting some of the decline in domestic saving, but this option would still result in a decrease in GNP. These estimates do not account for the increased compliance burden that would result from this option.
On a conventional basis, this option would decrease the primary deficit by $1,106.5 billion over the budget window. Long-run GDP would be unchanged, while long-run GNP would fall by 0.10 percent. Incorporating changes in interest costs, the publicly held debt-to-GDP ratio would be lower than baseline, reaching 166.1 percent by 2056.
On average, taxpayers would see decreases in their after-tax incomes of 0.6 percent in 2036 and the long run, concentrated within the top quintile.
Modeled Results
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About the Authors
Erica York is Vice President of Federal Tax Policy with Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy. Her analysis has been featured in The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Politico, and other national and international media outlets.
Garrett Watson is Director of Policy Analysis at the Tax Foundation, where he conducts research on federal and state tax policy. His work has been featured in The Washington Post, The Atlantic, Politico, the Associated Press and other major outlets.
Dr. Huaqun Li is Senior Economist, Director of Modeling Projects at the Tax Foundation. She focuses on developing and maintaining the Foundation’s Taxes and Growth Model, which models the budgetary and economic effects of changes to federal tax policy.
Dr. William McBride is the Chief Economist & Stephen J. Entin Fellow in Economics at the Tax Foundation, where he oversees major research projects primarily related to reforming the federal tax code, advancing sound tax policy, and improving the federal government’s fiscal outlook.
Alex Durante is a Senior Economist at the Tax Foundation, working on federal tax policy and model development. Alex worked as a research assistant at the Federal Reserve Board and served as a staff economist on the Council of Economic Advisers.
Alex Muresianu is a Senior Policy Analyst at the Tax Foundation, focused on federal tax policy. Previously working on the federal team as an intern in the summer of 2018 and as a research assistant in summer 2020. He attended Tufts University, graduating with a degree in economics and minors in finance and political science.
Peter Van Ness
Peter Van Ness is a Research Software Developer at the Tax Foundation working on federal tax policy and model development. Peter previously worked as a research assistant at another think tank and as a data analyst at a consulting firm.
Aleksei Shilov
Aleksei Shilov is a Research Software developer at the Tax Foundation working on economic model development and federal tax policy. Aleksei joined the Tax Foundation as an intern in January 2025. He holds a B.S. in computer science and a minor in economics from Northeastern University and is currently based in Boston, MA.
Daniel Bunn is President and CEO of the Tax Foundation. Daniel has been with the organization since 2018 and, prior to becoming President, successfully built its Center for Global Tax Policy, expanding the Tax Foundation’s reach and impact around the world. Prior to joining the Tax Foundation, Daniel worked in the United States Senate at the Joint Economic Committee.