Combination 1:
Broaden the Base, Lower the Rates
Topline Estimates
Source: Tax Foundation General Equilibrium Model.
This option combination broadens the individual income tax base by tightening the itemized deduction limitation to 28 percent while lowering all individual income tax rates by 10 percent across the board.
Broadening the base subjects more income to the tax, reducing distortions across types of activities and incomes that are taxed, while lowering the rate reduces the burden on work, saving, and investment. Lower marginal tax rates on work and investment lead to an increase in long-run economic output.
On a conventional basis, this option would increase the primary deficit by $3,532.2 billion over the budget window. Long-run GDP would rise by 1.2 percent, while long-run GNP would rise by 0.9 percent. On a dynamic basis, the primary deficit would increase by $2,459.5 billion from 2027 through 2036, $1,072.7 billion less than the conventional estimate. Incorporating changes in interest costs, the publicly held debt-to-GDP ratio would be higher than the current law baseline, reaching 194.5 percent by 2056.
On average, taxpayers would see an increase in their after-tax incomes of 1.6 percent in 2027 on a conventional basis, 1.8 percent by 2036, and 2.8 percent in the long run on a dynamic basis.
Modeled Results
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About the Authors
Erica York is Vice President of Federal Tax Policy with Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy. Her analysis has been featured in The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Politico, and other national and international media outlets.
Garrett Watson is Director of Policy Analysis at the Tax Foundation, where he conducts research on federal and state tax policy. His work has been featured in The Washington Post, The Atlantic, Politico, the Associated Press and other major outlets.
Dr. Huaqun Li is Senior Economist, Director of Modeling Projects at the Tax Foundation. She focuses on developing and maintaining the Foundation’s Taxes and Growth Model, which models the budgetary and economic effects of changes to federal tax policy.
Dr. William McBride is the Chief Economist & Stephen J. Entin Fellow in Economics at the Tax Foundation, where he oversees major research projects primarily related to reforming the federal tax code, advancing sound tax policy, and improving the federal government’s fiscal outlook.
Alex Durante is a Senior Economist at the Tax Foundation, working on federal tax policy and model development. Alex worked as a research assistant at the Federal Reserve Board and served as a staff economist on the Council of Economic Advisers.
Alex Muresianu is a Senior Policy Analyst at the Tax Foundation, focused on federal tax policy. Previously working on the federal team as an intern in the summer of 2018 and as a research assistant in summer 2020. He attended Tufts University, graduating with a degree in economics and minors in finance and political science.
Peter Van Ness
Peter Van Ness is a Research Software Developer at the Tax Foundation working on federal tax policy and model development. Peter previously worked as a research assistant at another think tank and as a data analyst at a consulting firm.
Aleksei Shilov
Aleksei Shilov is a Research Software developer at the Tax Foundation working on economic model development and federal tax policy. Aleksei joined the Tax Foundation as an intern in January 2025. He holds a B.S. in computer science and a minor in economics from Northeastern University and is currently based in Boston, MA.
Daniel Bunn is President and CEO of the Tax Foundation. Daniel has been with the organization since 2018 and, prior to becoming President, successfully built its Center for Global Tax Policy, expanding the Tax Foundation’s reach and impact around the world. Prior to joining the Tax Foundation, Daniel worked in the United States Senate at the Joint Economic Committee.