Trump Tariffs Threaten to Offset Much of the “Big Beautiful Bill” Tax Cuts
Our analysis finds that the Trump tariffs threaten to offset much of the economic benefits of the new tax cuts, while falling short of paying for them.
3 min read
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Trump Tariffs: Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War
The tariffs amount to an average tax increase of nearly $1,300 per US household in 2025.
38 min read
The One Big Beautiful Bill Is Law—Now What?
The One Big Beautiful Bill is now law—but what does it actually do? In this episode, we break down the new tax law’s key provisions, including who benefits, who doesn’t, and what it means for the economy, tax certainty, and the federal deficit.
Global Minimum Tax Battles Put Emerging Economies in Crossfire
President Trump made clear that the US wouldn’t accept the global minimum tax (known as Pillar Two) from the OECD in its current form.
The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act makes many of the individual tax cuts and reforms of the TCJA permanent. It improves upon the TCJA by making expensing for R&D and equipment permanent. However, for the most part, it does not include further structural reforms, and instead introduces many new, narrow tax breaks to the code, adding complexity and raising revenue costs.
7 min read
“One Big Beautiful Bill Act” Tax Policies: Details and Analysis
We estimate the One Big Beautiful Bill Act would increase long-run GDP by 1.2 percent and reduce federal tax revenue by $5 trillion over the next decade on a conventional basis.
11 min read
Budget Reconciliation: Tracking the 2025 Trump Tax Cuts
President Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law on July 4, 2025.
16 min read
How Does the Additional Senior Deduction Compare to No Tax on Social Security?
The increased senior deduction with the phaseout would deliver a larger tax cut to lower-middle- and middle-income taxpayers compared to exempting all Social Security benefits from income taxation and would not weaken the trust funds as much. But given the temporary nature of the policy, it would increase the deficit-impact of the reconciliation bills without boosting long-run economic growth.
3 min read
Big, Beautiful Bill Will Raise Both Growth and Deficits
We are living in an age of hyperbole, or as writer Matthew Hennessey calls it, the “Age of Excusability,” in which our politicians succeed by making outlandish claims. So it goes with the One Big Beautiful Bill, which will usher in a new golden age or send us down the tubes for good, depending on your sources.
A Partial Defense of the QBAI Exclusion
Lawmakers should consider maintaining QBAI and applying the several billion dollars from the Senate’s change toward other pro-growth international tax reforms instead.
6 min read
The One Big Beautiful Tax Bill: What’s In It, What’s Out
Congress is racing to pass the One Big Beautiful Tax Bill before the July 4 deadline. In this episode, Kyle Hulehan and Erica York break down what just happened over the weekend, what’s actually in the bill, and what comes next as the House and Senate try to reconcile their differences.
Will the Big Beautiful Bill Lead to an Economic Boom or Just Modestly Higher Growth?
Lawmakers are right to be concerned about deficits and economic growth. The best path to address those concerns is to ensure OBBB provides permanent full expensing of capital investment, avoids inefficient tax cuts, and offsets remaining revenue losses by closing tax loopholes and reducing spending.
8 min read
Breaking Down the Senior Deduction in the One, Big, Beautiful Bill
The House-passed reconciliation bill leaves out Trump’s promise to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits, opting instead to expand the standard deduction for seniors.
‘Trump Accounts’ Could Be Better. Here’s How.
If the federal government really wanted to make saving more accessible for taxpayers, it would swap the proposal for Trump Accounts to replace the complicated mess of savings accounts currently available with universal savings accounts.
4 min read
Trump’s Policies Deal a Double Blow to Tax-Cutting States
President’s Trump’s policies would throw high-tax states a life raft as they swim against the tide—before potentially hitting all states with a tariff-induced economic tsunami that could force lawmakers’ hands and reverse recent tax relief.
“One Big Beautiful Bill Act” House GOP Tax Plan: Details and Analysis
Our preliminary analysis finds the tax provisions increase long-run GDP by 0.8 percent and reduce federal tax revenue by $4.0 trillion from 2025 through 2034 on a conventional basis before added interest costs.
9 min read
One, Big, Beautiful Bill: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
From generous tax breaks to costly trade-offs, the House GOP’s One, Big, Beautiful Bill has a little of everything. It’s a sweeping attempt to extend key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act before they expire in 2026—but what’s actually in it?
Are Trump’s Tariffs Legal? Here’s What the Courts Say
It’s been a whirlwind 24 hours in tariff news: first, a trade court blocked Trump’s sweeping new tariffs, calling them executive overreach. Then, a federal appeals court reinstated them—at least for now. We break down what happened, what’s next, and why it matters.
A Tax War That Makes Americans Poorer
When governments restrict trade—through tariffs and retaliation—no one truly wins.
State Implications of the One, Big, Beautiful Bill
As the US House hashes out its “One, Big, Beautiful Bill,” statehouse lawmakers are watching closely, given the impact of both its tax and spending provisions on state budgets.
12 min read