Evaluating U.S. Tax Reform Options & Trade-Offs

The economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic poses a triple challenge for tax policy in the United States. Lawmakers are tasked with crafting a policy response that will accelerate the economic recovery, reduce the mounting deficit, and protect the most vulnerable.

To assist lawmakers in navigating the challenge, and to help the American public understand the tax changes being proposed, the Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy modeled how 70 potential changes to the tax code would affect the U.S. economy, distribution of the tax burden, and federal revenue.

In tax policy there is an ever-present trade-off among how much revenue a tax will raise, who bears the burden of a tax, and what impact a tax will have on economic growth. Armed with the information in our new book, Options for Reforming America’s Tax Code 2.0, policymakers can debate the relative merits and trade-offs of each option to improve the tax code in a post-pandemic world.

Elizabeth Warren’s Plans Could Lead to Effective Tax Rates Over 100 Percent on Capital Income For Some
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Illustrating Senator Warren’s Taxes on Capital Income

Taken together, these proposed tax changes would significantly raise marginal and effective tax rates and increase the cost of capital, all of which would lead to a reduced level of output and less revenue than anticipated.

5 min read
OECD Pillar 1 Amount A proposal OECD Secretariat, OECD unified approach pillar 1, OECD pillar 1, OECD international tax, OECD unified approach digital tax, OECD multinational businesses, OECD digital tax
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The OECD’s Pillar 2 Proposal Raises Serious Questions

Addressing tax avoidance is a key political issue for many countries, but these policies should not be discussed without accounting for the size of the current problem, how recent policy changes have addressed it, and what potential impacts might come from this new approach.

4 min read
state tax revenue decline, state tax collections, local tax collections. Sources of Government Revenue
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Reviewing the Deadweight Loss Effects of High Tax Rates

Deadweight loss effects demonstrate why policymakers should pursue a more efficient tax code to achieve distributional objectives, rather than pursuing high tax rates that create disproportionately high economic costs.

4 min read