Tracking the Impact of the Trump Tariffs & Trade War
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
55 min readThe Tax Foundation is the world’s leading independent tax policy 501(c)(3) nonprofit. For over 85 years, our mission has remained the same: to improve lives through tax policies that lead to greater economic growth and opportunity.
Our Center for Federal Tax Policy, Center for State Tax Policy, and Center for Global Tax Policy each produce timely and high-quality research and analysis that influences the debate toward economically principled tax policies. Our experts are continuously analyzing the day’s most relevant tax policy topics and are relied upon routinely for presentations, testimony, and media appearances on tax issues spanning every level of government.
Likewise, providing journalists, taxpayers, and policymakers with basic data on taxes and spending has been a cornerstone of the Tax Foundation’s educational mission since its founding. As we wrote in our first edition of Facts & Figures in 1941, “Facts give a broader perspective; facts dissipate predilections and prejudices…[and are] an important step to meet the challenge presented by the broad problems of public finance.”
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
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How will recent federal tax changes affect you?
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The State Tax Competitiveness Index enables policymakers, taxpayers, and business leaders to gauge how their states’ tax systems compare. While there are many ways to show how much state governments collect in taxes, the Index evaluates how well states structure their tax systems and provides a road map for improvement.
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Lawmakers can constrain the growth of property taxes without creating new problems. But the details matter.
Our experts explain how this major tax legislation may affect you and how policymakers can better improve the tax code.
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For Congress, work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is done. But in state capitols, the work has not yet begun. Many of the tax changes in the federal reconciliation act flow through to state tax codes—automatically in some states, and subject to an update in states’ Internal Revenue Code conformity date in others.
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As a rule, an individual’s income can be taxed both by the state in which the taxpayer resides and by the state in which the taxpayer’s income is earned.
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Notably, the OBBBA makes permanent the individual tax changes first put in place by the TCJA, which avoids a tax hike on an estimated 62 percent of tax filers in 2026.
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Facts & Figures serves as a one-stop state tax data resource that compares all 50 states on over 40 measures of tax rates, collections, burdens, and more.
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While there are many factors that affect a country’s economic performance, taxes play an important role. A well-structured tax code is easy for taxpayers to comply with and can promote economic development while raising sufficient revenue for a government’s priorities.
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New IRS data shows the US federal income tax system continues to be progressive as high-income taxpayers pay the highest average income tax rates. Average tax rates for all income groups remain lower after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
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The variety of approaches to taxation among European countries creates a need to evaluate these systems relative to each other. For that purpose, we have developed the European Tax Policy Scorecard—a relative comparison of European countries’ tax systems.
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France’s individual income tax system is the least competitive of all OECD countries. It takes French businesses on average 80 hours annually to comply with the income tax.
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The IRS recently released the new inflation adjusted 2022 tax brackets and rates. Explore updated credits, deductions, and exemptions, including the standard deduction & personal exemption, Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT), Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), Child Tax Credit (CTC), capital gains brackets, qualified business income deduction (199A), and the annual exclusion for gifts.
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According to the corporate tax component of the 2021 International Tax Competitiveness Index, Latvia and Estonia have the best corporate tax systems in the OECD.
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Under the Build Back Better framework, six states and D.C. would face combined top marginal capital gains tax rates of more than 40 percent, nearing the top rate among OECD countries.
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Taxes and fees on the typical American wireless consumer increased again this year, to a record 24.96 percent.
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In the past three years, eight European OECD countries changed their top personal income tax rate, of which four of them cut their top personal income tax rates.
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As Congress considers several tax proposals designed to raise taxes on high-income earners, it’s worth considering the distribution of the existing tax code.
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Under the House Democrats’ reconciliation plan, the top tax rate on pass-through business income would exceed 50 percent in most states. Pass-through businesses, such as sole proprietorships, S corporations, and partnerships, make up a majority of businesses and majority of private sector employment in the United States.
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Under the House Democrats’ tax plan, companies in 21 states and D.C. would face a higher corporate tax rate than in any country in the OECD.
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Patent box regimes (also referred to as intellectual property, or IP, regimes) provide lower effective tax rates on income derived from IP. Most commonly, eligible types of IP are patents and software copyrights. Currently, 14 of the 27 EU member states have a patent box regime.
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The Biden corporate tax plan would disproportionately harm these congressional districts and make the U.S. less internationally competitive. These tax hikes, along with individual tax increases, would also raise taxes on net for 96 percent of congressional districts by 2031 after these temporary credits expire in 2025.
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Ireland and France levy the highest excise duties on cigarettes in the EU, at €8.42 ($9.60) and €6.61 ($7.53) per 20-cigarette pack, respectively. This compares to an EU average of €3.34 ($3.80). Bulgaria (€1.81 or $2.06) and Poland (€2.08 or $2.37) levy the lowest excise duties.
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The six counties with the highest median property tax payments all have bills exceeding $10,000—Bergen, Essex, and Union Counties in New Jersey, and Nassau, Rockland, and Westchester counties in New York. All six are near New York City, as is the next highest, Passaic County, New Jersey ($9,881).
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The highest excise duties are applied in Finland, Sweden, and Ireland, where the rates for a standard-size bottle of liquor are €14.10 ($16.08), €13.80 ($15.73), and €11.92 ($13.59), respectively.
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It is important to understand how the SALT deduction’s benefits have changed since the SALT cap was put into place in 2018 before repealing the cap or making the deduction more generous. Doing so would disproportionately benefit higher earners, making the tax code more regressive.
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Reviewing the sources of personal income shows that the personal income tax is largely a tax on labor, primarily because our personal income is mostly derived from labor. However, varied sources of capital income also play a role in American incomes. While capital income sources are small compared to labor income, they are still significant and need to be accounted for, both by policymakers trying to collect revenue efficiently and by those attempting to understand the distribution of personal income.
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As one might expect, southern European countries that are well-known for their wines—such as France, Greece, Portugal, and Spain—either don’t tax it or do so at a very low rate. But travel north and you’ll see countries that tend to levy taxes on wine—and often hefty taxes.
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The original goal of AMTs—to prevent deductions from eliminating income tax liability altogether—can be accomplished best by simplifying the existing tax structure, not by creating an alternative tax which adds complexity and lacks transparency and neutrality.
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Neither Anchorage, Alaska, nor Portland, Oregon, impose any state or local sales taxes. Honolulu, Hawaii, has a low rate of 4.5 percent and several other major cities, including Milwaukee and Madison, Wisconsin, keep overall rates modest.
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