Tariff Tracker: Impact of Trump Tariffs & Trade War by the Numbers
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
51 min readThe Tax Foundation is the world’s leading independent tax policy 501(c)(3) nonprofit. For over 85 years, our mission has remained the same: to improve lives through tax policies that lead to greater economic growth and opportunity.
Our Center for Federal Tax Policy, Center for State Tax Policy, and Center for Global Tax Policy each produce timely and high-quality research and analysis that influences the debate toward economically principled tax policies. Our experts are continuously analyzing the day’s most relevant tax policy topics and are relied upon routinely for presentations, testimony, and media appearances on tax issues spanning every level of government.
Likewise, providing journalists, taxpayers, and policymakers with basic data on taxes and spending has been a cornerstone of the Tax Foundation’s educational mission since its founding. As we wrote in our first edition of Facts & Figures in 1941, “Facts give a broader perspective; facts dissipate predilections and prejudices…[and are] an important step to meet the challenge presented by the broad problems of public finance.”
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
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How will recent federal tax changes affect you?
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The State Tax Competitiveness Index enables policymakers, taxpayers, and business leaders to gauge how their states’ tax systems compare. While there are many ways to show how much state governments collect in taxes, the Index evaluates how well states structure their tax systems and provides a road map for improvement.
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Lawmakers can constrain the growth of property taxes without creating new problems. But the details matter.
Our experts explain how this major tax legislation may affect you and how policymakers can better improve the tax code.
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For Congress, work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is done. But in state capitols, the work has not yet begun. Many of the tax changes in the federal reconciliation act flow through to state tax codes—automatically in some states, and subject to an update in states’ Internal Revenue Code conformity date in others.
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As a rule, an individual’s income can be taxed both by the state in which the taxpayer resides and by the state in which the taxpayer’s income is earned.
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Notably, the OBBBA makes permanent the individual tax changes first put in place by the TCJA, which avoids a tax hike on an estimated 62 percent of tax filers in 2026.
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Facts & Figures serves as a one-stop state tax data resource that compares all 50 states on over 40 measures of tax rates, collections, burdens, and more.
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While there are many factors that affect a country’s economic performance, taxes play an important role. A well-structured tax code is easy for taxpayers to comply with and can promote economic development while raising sufficient revenue for a government’s priorities.
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New IRS data shows the US federal income tax system continues to be progressive as high-income taxpayers pay the highest average income tax rates. Average tax rates for all income groups remain lower after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
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The variety of approaches to taxation among European countries creates a need to evaluate these systems relative to each other. For that purpose, we have developed the European Tax Policy Scorecard—a relative comparison of European countries’ tax systems.
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The Biden campaign and Senate Democrats identified changes to GILTI that would increase the taxes U.S. companies pay on their foreign earnings. Rather than tacking on changes to a system that is currently neither fully territorial nor worldwide, policymakers should evaluate the structure of the current system with a goal of it becoming more, not less, coherent.
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In addition to its economic impact on Maryland businesses and the likelihood of serious legal challenges, Maryland’s proposed digital advertising tax is incredibly vague on vital definitions, creating uncertainty about where revenue is sourced and when it is subject to the tax.
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The consultation on the EU’s digital levy provides an opportunity for policymakers and taxpayers to reflect on the underlying issues of digital taxation and potential consequences from a digital levy. Unless the EU digital levy is designed with an OECD agreement in mind, it is likely to cause more uncertainty in cross-border tax policy.
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We identify 13 of the highest tax reform priorities Nebraska policymakers should consider in their effort to create a more growth-friendly tax code. We also offer a sample comprehensive tax reform plan to show one way policymakers could begin tackling these objectives over the next couple legislative sessions, with further progress to be made in the years ahead.
8 min readJoe Biden has proposed an ambitious agenda that would make the federal fiscal system more progressive, and the huge budget deficits caused by the numerous COVID-19 relief packages could heighten the call for more tax revenues. What is needed are benchmark facts to guide these debates.
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Despite the potential of consumption taxes as a neutral and efficient source of tax revenues, many governments have implemented policies that are unduly complex and have poorly designed tax bases that exclude many goods or services from taxation, or tax them at reduced rates.
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Biden’s proposal to increase the corporate income tax rate and to tax long-term capital gains and qualified dividends at ordinary income tax rates would increase the top integrated tax rate above pre-TCJA levels, making it the highest in the OECD and undercutting American economic competitiveness.
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Expensing for capital investments is a powerful tax policy for economic growth. But expensing can also help shift the economy to a more sustainable future through increased investment in new, less carbon-intensive technology. Expensing for capital investment would eliminate a tax bias against energy efficiency improvements that reduce operating costs but involve high upfront investments. It could also serve to accelerate the existing trend of movement towards more green energy power sources.
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Lawmakers looking to close budget shortfalls would be well-advised to consider other and more stable avenues for new revenue.
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Twenty-six states and the District of Columbia had notable tax changes take effect on January 1, 2021. Because most states’ legislative sessions were cut short in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, fewer tax changes were adopted in 2020 than in a typical year.
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Our new study provides a 360-degree assessment of New York’s budget crisis, analyzes proposed revenue options, and offers solutions to raise revenue without driving more taxpayers out of the state or undoing recent positive reforms
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At the end of 2020, 33 temporary tax provisions are scheduled to expire at the federal level. These provisions generally fall under four categories: cost recovery, energy, individual, and other business provisions.
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Our new guide identifies key areas for improvement in UK tax policy and provides recommendations that would support long-term growth without putting a dent in government revenues.
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What has President Joe Biden proposed in terms of tax policy changes? Our experts provide the details and analyze the potential economic, revenue, and distributional impacts.
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Our International Index compares OECD countries on over 40 variables that measure how well each country’s tax system promotes sustainable economic growth and investment.
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A competitive tax code has never been more important, and these tax policy improvements can both strengthen the short-term economic recovery and promote long-term economic growth in Nebraska.
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Heading into Election Day, the Illinois legislature and Governor J.B. Pritzker (D) are trying to convince voters to scrap a key constitutional feature of Illinois’ tax system: a provision in the state constitution that prohibits a graduated-rate income tax.
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Making the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act’s individual provisions permanent combined with a carbon tax can be a revenue-neutral trade and increase the long-run size of the economy by 1 percent, making it a sustainable pro-growth option.
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