Tracking the Impact of the Trump Tariffs & Trade War
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
56 min readThe Tax Foundation is the world’s leading independent tax policy 501(c)(3) nonprofit. For over 85 years, our mission has remained the same: to improve lives through tax policies that lead to greater economic growth and opportunity.
Our Center for Federal Tax Policy, Center for State Tax Policy, and Center for Global Tax Policy each produce timely and high-quality research and analysis that influences the debate toward economically principled tax policies. Our experts are continuously analyzing the day’s most relevant tax policy topics and are relied upon routinely for presentations, testimony, and media appearances on tax issues spanning every level of government.
Likewise, providing journalists, taxpayers, and policymakers with basic data on taxes and spending has been a cornerstone of the Tax Foundation’s educational mission since its founding. As we wrote in our first edition of Facts & Figures in 1941, “Facts give a broader perspective; facts dissipate predilections and prejudices…[and are] an important step to meet the challenge presented by the broad problems of public finance.”
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
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How will recent federal tax changes affect you?
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The State Tax Competitiveness Index enables policymakers, taxpayers, and business leaders to gauge how their states’ tax systems compare. While there are many ways to show how much state governments collect in taxes, the Index evaluates how well states structure their tax systems and provides a road map for improvement.
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Lawmakers can constrain the growth of property taxes without creating new problems. But the details matter.
Our experts explain how this major tax legislation may affect you and how policymakers can better improve the tax code.
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For Congress, work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is done. But in state capitols, the work has not yet begun. Many of the tax changes in the federal reconciliation act flow through to state tax codes—automatically in some states, and subject to an update in states’ Internal Revenue Code conformity date in others.
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As a rule, an individual’s income can be taxed both by the state in which the taxpayer resides and by the state in which the taxpayer’s income is earned.
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Notably, the OBBBA makes permanent the individual tax changes first put in place by the TCJA, which avoids a tax hike on an estimated 62 percent of tax filers in 2026.
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Facts & Figures serves as a one-stop state tax data resource that compares all 50 states on over 40 measures of tax rates, collections, burdens, and more.
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While there are many factors that affect a country’s economic performance, taxes play an important role. A well-structured tax code is easy for taxpayers to comply with and can promote economic development while raising sufficient revenue for a government’s priorities.
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New IRS data shows the US federal income tax system continues to be progressive as high-income taxpayers pay the highest average income tax rates. Average tax rates for all income groups remain lower after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
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The variety of approaches to taxation among European countries creates a need to evaluate these systems relative to each other. For that purpose, we have developed the European Tax Policy Scorecard—a relative comparison of European countries’ tax systems.
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While many factors influence business location and investment decisions, sales taxes are something within policymakers’ control that can have immediate impacts—especially as a large number of major cities have combined rates of 9 percent or more.
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Property taxes are the primary tool for financing local governments and generate a significant share of state and local revenues.
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To encourage greater saving, the US federal income tax provides tax-neutral treatment to some types of saving through a variety of accounts. The type of tax treatment, contribution limits, withdrawal rules, and use cases for contributions all vary by account, leading to a complicated system for households to navigate.
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Gas and diesel taxes continue to be prominent policy issues throughout Europe. As the EU undergoes sweeping changes for its green transition, fuel taxes are likely to be a crucial aspect of policy discussions.
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Americans will spend more than 7.9 billion hours complying with IRS tax filing and reporting requirements in 2024. This is equal to 3.8 million full-time workers doing nothing but tax return paperwork—roughly equal to the population of Los Angeles.
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Though gas taxes are intended to serve as user fees and pollution deterrents, they vary widely across states. How does your state’s burden compare?
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Although sometimes overlooked in discussions about corporate taxation, capital allowances play an important role in a country’s corporate tax base and can impact investment decisions—with far-reaching economic consequences.
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The real estate transaction tax is levied on the gross sales value of a property when it changes ownership, without deductions for investment or purchasing costs. This makes the tax particularly harmful to investment in buildings and structures.
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However well-intended they may be, sales tax holidays remain the same as they always have been—ineffective and inefficient.
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An ideal sales tax is imposed on all final consumption, both goods and services, but excludes intermediate transactions to avoid tax pyramiding.
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The aim of patent boxes is generally to encourage and attract local research and development (R&D) and to incentivize businesses to locate IP in the country. However, patent boxes can introduce another level of complexity to a tax system, and some recent research questions whether patent boxes are actually effective in driving innovation.
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Retail sales taxes are an essential part of most states’ revenue toolkits, responsible for 32 percent of state tax collections and 13 percent of local tax collections (24 percent of combined collections).
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Many countries incentivize business investment in research and development (R&D), intending to foster innovation. A common approach is to provide direct government funding for R&D activity. However, a significant number of jurisdictions also offer R&D tax incentives.
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Reviewing reported income helps to understand the composition of the federal government’s revenue base and how Americans earn their taxable income. The individual income tax, the federal government’s largest source of revenue, is largely a tax on labor.
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The vaping industry has grown rapidly in recent decades, becoming a well-established product category and a viable alternative to cigarettes for those trying to quit smoking. US states levy a variety of tax structures on vaping products.
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23 European countries have implemented carbon taxes, ranging from less than €1 per metric ton of carbon emissions in Ukraine to more than €100 in Sweden, Liechtenstein, and Switzerland.
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Different layers of taxation on production and distribution combine to make up about 40 percent of the retail price of beer.
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To recover from the pandemic and put the global economy on a trajectory for growth, policymakers need to aim for more generous and permanent capital allowances. This will spur real investment and can also contribute to more environmentally friendly production across the globe.
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To make the taxation of labor more efficient, policymakers should understand the inputs into the tax wedge, and taxpayers should understand how their tax burden funds government services.
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Governments often justify higher tax burdens with more extensive public services. However, the cost of these services can be more than half of an average worker’s salary.
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