Tracking the Impact of the Trump Tariffs & Trade War
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
56 min readThe Tax Foundation is the world’s leading independent tax policy 501(c)(3) nonprofit. For over 85 years, our mission has remained the same: to improve lives through tax policies that lead to greater economic growth and opportunity.
Our Center for Federal Tax Policy, Center for State Tax Policy, and Center for Global Tax Policy each produce timely and high-quality research and analysis that influences the debate toward economically principled tax policies. Our experts are continuously analyzing the day’s most relevant tax policy topics and are relied upon routinely for presentations, testimony, and media appearances on tax issues spanning every level of government.
Likewise, providing journalists, taxpayers, and policymakers with basic data on taxes and spending has been a cornerstone of the Tax Foundation’s educational mission since its founding. As we wrote in our first edition of Facts & Figures in 1941, “Facts give a broader perspective; facts dissipate predilections and prejudices…[and are] an important step to meet the challenge presented by the broad problems of public finance.”
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
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How will recent federal tax changes affect you?
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The State Tax Competitiveness Index enables policymakers, taxpayers, and business leaders to gauge how their states’ tax systems compare. While there are many ways to show how much state governments collect in taxes, the Index evaluates how well states structure their tax systems and provides a road map for improvement.
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Lawmakers can constrain the growth of property taxes without creating new problems. But the details matter.
Our experts explain how this major tax legislation may affect you and how policymakers can better improve the tax code.
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For Congress, work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is done. But in state capitols, the work has not yet begun. Many of the tax changes in the federal reconciliation act flow through to state tax codes—automatically in some states, and subject to an update in states’ Internal Revenue Code conformity date in others.
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As a rule, an individual’s income can be taxed both by the state in which the taxpayer resides and by the state in which the taxpayer’s income is earned.
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Notably, the OBBBA makes permanent the individual tax changes first put in place by the TCJA, which avoids a tax hike on an estimated 62 percent of tax filers in 2026.
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Facts & Figures serves as a one-stop state tax data resource that compares all 50 states on over 40 measures of tax rates, collections, burdens, and more.
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While there are many factors that affect a country’s economic performance, taxes play an important role. A well-structured tax code is easy for taxpayers to comply with and can promote economic development while raising sufficient revenue for a government’s priorities.
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New IRS data shows the US federal income tax system continues to be progressive as high-income taxpayers pay the highest average income tax rates. Average tax rates for all income groups remain lower after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
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The variety of approaches to taxation among European countries creates a need to evaluate these systems relative to each other. For that purpose, we have developed the European Tax Policy Scorecard—a relative comparison of European countries’ tax systems.
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Legal sports betting has grown rapidly since the Supreme Court granted states the ability to establish online sports betting markets in Murphy vs. NCAA in 2018.
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As energy prices have declined, European countries have switched the focus of their windfall profits taxes—a one-time tax levied on a company or industry when economic conditions result in large, unexpected profits—from energy providers to the banking and financial sector.
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California levies the highest tax on gasoline at 70.9 cents per gallon (cpg), followed by Illinois at 66.4 cpg and Washington at 59.0 cpg.
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Americans will spend almost 7.1 billion hours complying with IRS tax filing and reporting requirements in 2025. This is equal to 3.4 million full-time workers—almost the population of Los Angeles and nearly 38 times the workforce the IRS employed in FY 2024—doing nothing but tax return paperwork for a full year.
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As the market share of electric vehicles (EVs) on the road grows, the gas tax’s ability to fund road projects and decrease traffic congestion erodes. Both federal and state real tax revenue per vehicle mile traveled has been on a steady decline for decades, creating a fiscal gap for road expenditures even as the demand for road infrastructure improvements has grown.
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How do current federal individual income tax rates and brackets compare historically?
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How have US federal capital gains tax rates and collections changed over time?
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Growing cigarette tax levels and differentials have made cigarette smuggling both a national problem and a lucrative criminal enterprise.
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Although sometimes overlooked in discussions about corporate taxation, capital allowances play an important role in a country’s corporate tax base and can impact investment decisions—with far-reaching economic consequences.
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However well-intended they may be, sales tax holidays remain the same as they always have been—ineffective and inefficient.
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The aim of patent boxes is generally to encourage and attract local research and development (R&D) and to incentivize businesses to locate IP in the country. However, patent boxes can introduce another level of complexity to a tax system, and some recent research questions whether patent boxes are actually effective in driving innovation.
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The five states with the highest average combined state and local sales tax rates are Louisiana (10.11 percent), Tennessee (9.61 percent), Arkansas (9.48 percent), Washington (9.47 percent), and Alabama (9.44 percent).
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In recent years, several countries have taken measures to reduce carbon emissions, including instituting environmental regulations, emissions trading systems (ETSs), and carbon taxes.
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Many countries incentivize business investment in research and development (R&D), intending to foster innovation. A common approach is to provide direct government funding for R&D activity. However, a significant number of jurisdictions also offer R&D tax incentives.
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In the United States, taxes are the single most expensive ingredient in beer. The tax burden accounts for more of the final price of beer than labor and materials combined—the many different layers of applicable taxes combining to total as much as 40.8 percent of the retail price.
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The ongoing economic uncertainty from Russia’s war in Ukraine, economic recovery, supply chain disruptions, and rising interest rates have highlighted the importance of business investment.
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Different taxes have different economic effects, so policymakers should always consider how tax revenue is raised and not just how much is raised.
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The significant disparity in tax rates across states underscores the complex tax and regulatory environment governing distilled spirits.
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Developed countries raise tax revenue through individual income taxes, corporate income taxes, social insurance taxes, taxes on goods and services, and property taxes—the combination of which determines how distortionary or neutral a tax system is.
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Does your state have a small business exemption for machinery and equipment?
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