The Short Form: What You Need to Know about the Global Tax Deal
The technical rules that were once solely the province of tax wonks in D.C. and Paris are being brought out into the public sphere.
The technical rules that were once solely the province of tax wonks in D.C. and Paris are being brought out into the public sphere.
Simplifying international tax rules will not solve all the challenges that stand in the way of healthy cross-border investment, but eliminating unnecessary provisions would be a positive pivot relative to the trajectory of recent years. It’s high time that policymakers stopped pursuing ever more complex rules and started the hard work of simplification.
The agreement represents a major change for tax competition, and many countries will be rethinking their tax policies for multinationals in light of it. However, with both the U.S. and EU hitting roadblocks in their respective legislative processes, it is unclear when or even if the agreement will be implemented. If implementation fails, a return to a world of distortive European digital services taxes and retaliatory American tariffs could be on the horizon.
The OECD presented its preliminary impact assessment on the Pillar 1 and Pillar 2 proposals. The impact assessment includes estimated revenue and investment effects presented at a country group level (low-, middle- and high-income countries and investment hubs). The OECD estimates global corporate income tax revenues to increase by 4 percent if both pillars get implemented, equaling $100 billion annually.
Though they are limited by both data and assumptions, the OECD will face similar limitations. As policymakers work to fine-tune the proposals under both Pillar 1 and 2 the impact assessment should be a critical part of that discussion.
What is a digital services tax (DST)? What countries have announced, proposed, or implemented a DST? What are some of the criticisms of a DST? What are alternatives to a DST? What is the OECD BEPS project and what is its main objective? What is the main objective of OECD Pillar 1? What is the main objective of OECD Pillar 2?
The tax base for the income-inclusion rule will be just as important as determining the rate, and both the base and the rate will likely impact business decisions. Additionally, policymakers need to determine how the choice for blending fits with the overarching goal of the policy. And as the example of GILTI shows, it is essential to assess how current international tax regulations would interact with a global minimum tax.
Unifying the proposal under sound principles in the context of clear economic analysis should allow the Inclusive Framework to minimize both the administrative and economic burdens that the Secretariat’s proposal could create.
Addressing tax avoidance is a key political issue for many countries, but these policies should not be discussed without accounting for the size of the current problem, how recent policy changes have addressed it, and what potential impacts might come from this new approach.
The continuation of this work is important, but the OECD and policymakers around the world should carefully consider whether these proposals will lead to more certainty, or if they will undermine that goal by simply be a step toward more unilateralism. The impact on cross-border investment will also be a critical issue to consider, and the ongoing impact assessment by the OECD is an important part of the work.