Will the AI Apocalypse Come for the Tax Code?
AI may be a transformative technology, but that is not a good justification for throwing core principles of tax policy out the window.
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The Abandoned Goal of Revenue Neutrality
Revenue-neutral proposals, like many things in politics, have become a relic of the past.
Can Tax Reform Solve the Debt Problem—or Just Slow It?
This study simulates several large tax increases and consistently finds that even tax increases large enough to close the primary deficit in the near term will lose ground over time and fail to put the debt on a sustainable course.
41 min read
One Big Beautiful Bill Act Tax Policies: Details and Analysis
Our analysis of the major tax provisions included in the OBBBA finds it will increase long-run GDP by 0.7 percent. The major tax provisions will reduce federal tax revenue by nearly $5.2 trillion between 2025 and 2034, on a conventional basis.
12 min read
The Federal Payroll Tax: A Primer
With changes to payroll taxes likely to be part of a toolkit for reform, both policymakers and the public would benefit from understanding how the payroll tax works, who pays it, and its impact on the economy.
21 min read
Yes, You’re Getting a Bigger Tax Refund. But That’s Not the Whole Story.
Economic policy in 2025 came with historic highs but also disappointing lows.
Will the OBBBA Tax Cuts Grow the US Economy?
Over the long run, OBBBA’s permanent extension of lower marginal tax rates on work, saving, and investment lays a solid foundation for stronger economic growth.
6 min read
How Does the OBBBA Impact Debt, Deficits, and Tax Revenue?
Our modeling indicates the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) will boost economic growth but increase deficits, leading to record high debt in 2028 that rises to 124 percent of GDP by 2034.
7 min read
How to Refuel the Highway Trust Fund
Examples from other countries and US states show that well-designed user fees can fund transportation infrastructure effectively.
19 min read
Taxes at Every Level
Each level of government provides its own services and therefore levies its own taxes to generate revenue for these services.
The Chronic Disorder of Ever-Expanding Healthcare Subsidies
Amidst a government shutdown, healthcare subsidies have metastasized into a major threat to the nation’s fiscal and economic health.
The Unaffordable Healthcare Subsidies That Led to a Government Shutdown
The fiscal fight that resulted in the current federal government shutdown is, at its core, about the healthcare sector, spiraling healthcare costs, and federal subsidies.
7 min read
Financial Ruin? Why Losing IEEPA Tariff Revenue Won’t Change the Long-Term US Fiscal Trajectory
The US fiscal trajectory is on an unsustainable path over the next 35 years, regardless of whether the IEEPA tariffs are struck down or maintained.
3 min read
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act Creates Unequal Tax Treatment for Gambling Losses
In a surprising tax code alteration that has frustrated Americans who enjoy gambling, a provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act limits gambling losses that can be used to offset gambling winnings to 90 percent of their value. This provision introduces a steep tax penalty for professional gamblers and certain casual bettors.
5 min read
FAQ: The One Big Beautiful Bill, Explained
Our experts explain how this major tax legislation may affect you and how policymakers can better improve the tax code.
24 min read
The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act makes many of the individual tax cuts and reforms of the TCJA permanent. It improves upon the TCJA by making expensing for R&D and equipment permanent. However, for the most part, it does not include further structural reforms, and instead introduces many new, narrow tax breaks to the code, adding complexity and raising revenue costs.
7 min read
Budget Reconciliation: Tracking the 2025 Trump Tax Cuts
President Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law on July 4, 2025.
18 min read
Will the Big Beautiful Bill Lead to an Economic Boom or Just Modestly Higher Growth?
Lawmakers are right to be concerned about deficits and economic growth. The best path to address those concerns is to ensure OBBB provides permanent full expensing of capital investment, avoids inefficient tax cuts, and offsets remaining revenue losses by closing tax loopholes and reducing spending.
8 min read
Three Corporate Tax Hikes That Would Undermine TCJA’s Improvements to Competitiveness
As lawmakers consider options for budgetary offsets, they should prioritize competitiveness and economic growth, as a heavier corporate tax burden will undermine the core purpose and achievement of the TCJA.
24 min read
Trump Floats Replacing Income Tax with Tariffs: Five Things To Know
President Trump has repeatedly floated the idea of entirely replacing the federal income tax with new tariffs. Recently, he has said that when tariff revenues come in, he will use them to replace or substantially cut income taxes for people making under $200,000.
8 min read