Trump Tariffs: Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War
The Trump tariffs are the largest US tax increase as a percent of GDP since 1993 and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $1,500 in 2026.
48 min readThe Tax Foundation is the world’s leading independent tax policy 501(c)(3) nonprofit. For over 85 years, our mission has remained the same: to improve lives through tax policies that lead to greater economic growth and opportunity.
Our Center for Federal Tax Policy, Center for State Tax Policy, and Center for Global Tax Policy each produce timely and high-quality research and analysis that influences the debate toward economically principled tax policies. Our experts are continuously analyzing the day’s most relevant tax policy topics and are relied upon routinely for presentations, testimony, and media appearances on tax issues spanning every level of government.
Likewise, providing journalists, taxpayers, and policymakers with basic data on taxes and spending has been a cornerstone of the Tax Foundation’s educational mission since its founding. As we wrote in our first edition of Facts & Figures in 1941, “Facts give a broader perspective; facts dissipate predilections and prejudices…[and are] an important step to meet the challenge presented by the broad problems of public finance.”
The Trump tariffs are the largest US tax increase as a percent of GDP since 1993 and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $1,500 in 2026.
48 min read
How will recent federal tax changes affect you?
4 min read
The State Tax Competitiveness Index enables policymakers, taxpayers, and business leaders to gauge how their states’ tax systems compare. While there are many ways to show how much state governments collect in taxes, the Index evaluates how well states structure their tax systems and provides a road map for improvement.
122 min read
Lawmakers can constrain the growth of property taxes without creating new problems. But the details matter.
Our experts explain how this major tax legislation may affect you and how policymakers can better improve the tax code.
24 min read
For Congress, work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is done. But in state capitols, the work has not yet begun. Many of the tax changes in the federal reconciliation act flow through to state tax codes—automatically in some states, and subject to an update in states’ Internal Revenue Code conformity date in others.
39 min read
As a rule, an individual’s income can be taxed both by the state in which the taxpayer resides and by the state in which the taxpayer’s income is earned.
52 min read
We estimate the OBBBA will reduce federal taxes on average for individual taxpayers in every state. Across all individual tax filers throughout the US, the average tax cut per taxpayer will be over $3,700 in 2026.
4 min read
Facts & Figures serves as a one-stop state tax data resource that compares all 50 states on over 40 measures of tax rates, collections, burdens, and more.
2 min read
While there are many factors that affect a country’s economic performance, taxes play an important role. A well-structured tax code is easy for taxpayers to comply with and can promote economic development while raising sufficient revenue for a government’s priorities.
93 min read
New IRS data shows the US federal income tax system continues to be progressive as high-income taxpayers pay the highest average income tax rates. Average tax rates for all income groups remain lower after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
6 min read
The variety of approaches to taxation among European countries creates a need to evaluate these systems relative to each other. For that purpose, we have developed the European Tax Policy Scorecard—a relative comparison of European countries’ tax systems.
55 min read
Credit unions’ privileged status as tax-exempt nonprofit organizations may have filled a market need during the Great Depression, but 90 years later, there is no longer a justification to subsidize these institutions.
As policymakers continue efforts to improve Kentucky’s tax structure and competitiveness, they should keep in mind that not all offsets are created equal.
59 min read
Thirty-four states will ring in the new year with notable tax changes, including 15 states cutting individual or corporate income taxes (and some cutting both).
17 min read
An alcohol by volume (ABV) tax could replace the existing alcohol tax system. An ABV tax would make alcohol taxes simpler, more transparent, and substantially more neutral than the current system.
18 min read
Marijuana taxation is one of the hottest policy issues in the United States. Twenty-one states have implemented legislation to legalize and tax recreational marijuana sales.
16 min read
All policy choices involve trade-offs—but occasionally, the ratio of costs and benefits is shockingly lopsided. Adopting a de minimis exemption for tangible personal property (TPP) taxes is just such a policy: one which massively reduces compliance and administrative burdens at trivial cost.
18 min read
While existing carbon taxes are a step towards the right direction in addressing climate change and incentivizing reductions in emissions, there is considerable room for improvement to reach the ideal theoretical carbon tax model.
59 min read
Lawmakers will have to weigh the economic, revenue, and distributional trade-offs of extending or making permanent the various provisions of the TCJA as they decide how to approach the upcoming expirations. A commitment to growth, opportunity, and fiscal responsibility should guide the approach.
18 min read
The current patchwork of state laws taxing marketplace facilitators is complex, burdensome, and inefficient. States should work to resolve these issues and standardize the otherwise disparate requirements—with or without an inducement from Congress or the courts.
29 min read
The UK economy is experiencing an upsurge in business fixed investment following two pro-growth tax changes. In the second quarter of 2023, business investment was 9.4 percent higher than the same quarter last year.
10 min read
The variety of approaches to taxation among European countries creates a need to evaluate these systems relative to each other. For that purpose, we have developed the European Tax Policy Scorecard—a relative comparison of European countries’ tax systems.
52 min read
In recognition of the fact that there are better and worse ways to raise revenue, our Index focuses on how state tax revenue is raised, not how much. The rankings, therefore, reflect how well states structure their tax systems.
111 min read
While there are many factors that affect a country’s economic performance, taxes play an important role. A well-structured tax code is easy for taxpayers to comply with and can promote economic development while raising sufficient revenue for a government’s priorities.
88 min read
The global minimum tax agreement known as Pillar Two is intended to curb profit shifting. However, OECD countries already have a variety of mechanisms in place that seek to prevent base erosion and profit shifting by multinational corporations.
40 min read
Income taxes impose steeper economic costs, and often steeper administrative and compliance costs, than consumption taxes. Moving to a consumption tax would end the tax bias against saving and investment and provide an opportunity to greatly simplify anti-poverty programs embedded in the tax code.
45 min read
Responsible pro-growth reforms to Arkansas’s tax code can help ensure that the Natural State is indeed a Land of Opportunity.
9 min read
The 2023 Spanish Regional Tax Competitiveness Index allows policymakers and taxpayers to evaluate and measure how their regions’ tax systems compare.
6 min read
One prominent feature of President Biden’s agenda on the environment is to target U.S. fossil fuel producers and production with nearly $97 billion in tax increases over the next decade.
16 min read
Now is the time for lawmakers to focus on long-term fiscal sustainability, as further delay will only make an eventual fiscal reckoning that much harder and more painful. Congressional leaders should follow through on convening a fiscal commission to deal with the long-term budgetary challenges facing the country.
35 min read
A major case pending before the U.S. Supreme Court (Moore v. United States) is calling into question provisions on large portions of the U.S. tax base which could quickly become legally uncertain, putting significant revenue at stake.
7 min read