Tracking the Impact of the Trump Tariffs & Trade War
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
55 min readThe Tax Foundation is the world’s leading independent tax policy 501(c)(3) nonprofit. For over 85 years, our mission has remained the same: to improve lives through tax policies that lead to greater economic growth and opportunity.
Our Center for Federal Tax Policy, Center for State Tax Policy, and Center for Global Tax Policy each produce timely and high-quality research and analysis that influences the debate toward economically principled tax policies. Our experts are continuously analyzing the day’s most relevant tax policy topics and are relied upon routinely for presentations, testimony, and media appearances on tax issues spanning every level of government.
Likewise, providing journalists, taxpayers, and policymakers with basic data on taxes and spending has been a cornerstone of the Tax Foundation’s educational mission since its founding. As we wrote in our first edition of Facts & Figures in 1941, “Facts give a broader perspective; facts dissipate predilections and prejudices…[and are] an important step to meet the challenge presented by the broad problems of public finance.”
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
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How will recent federal tax changes affect you?
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The State Tax Competitiveness Index enables policymakers, taxpayers, and business leaders to gauge how their states’ tax systems compare. While there are many ways to show how much state governments collect in taxes, the Index evaluates how well states structure their tax systems and provides a road map for improvement.
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Lawmakers can constrain the growth of property taxes without creating new problems. But the details matter.
Our experts explain how this major tax legislation may affect you and how policymakers can better improve the tax code.
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For Congress, work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is done. But in state capitols, the work has not yet begun. Many of the tax changes in the federal reconciliation act flow through to state tax codes—automatically in some states, and subject to an update in states’ Internal Revenue Code conformity date in others.
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As a rule, an individual’s income can be taxed both by the state in which the taxpayer resides and by the state in which the taxpayer’s income is earned.
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Notably, the OBBBA makes permanent the individual tax changes first put in place by the TCJA, which avoids a tax hike on an estimated 62 percent of tax filers in 2026.
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Facts & Figures serves as a one-stop state tax data resource that compares all 50 states on over 40 measures of tax rates, collections, burdens, and more.
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While there are many factors that affect a country’s economic performance, taxes play an important role. A well-structured tax code is easy for taxpayers to comply with and can promote economic development while raising sufficient revenue for a government’s priorities.
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New IRS data shows the US federal income tax system continues to be progressive as high-income taxpayers pay the highest average income tax rates. Average tax rates for all income groups remain lower after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
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The variety of approaches to taxation among European countries creates a need to evaluate these systems relative to each other. For that purpose, we have developed the European Tax Policy Scorecard—a relative comparison of European countries’ tax systems.
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During the COVID-19 pandemic, several OECD countries temporarily expanded their NOL carrybacks and carryforwards to provide relief to illiquid but otherwise solvent businesses. These policies should be made permanent and, where necessary, expanded.
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As economic activity resumes and the task of accounting for the deficits incurred in navigating the crisis of the past year becomes the focus of fiscal policy deliberations, a greater reliance on VAT could be an important tool in ensuring fiscal stability going forward. Countries should use this as an opportunity to improve VAT systems by re-examining carveouts in the form of exemptions and reduced rates.
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Of all alcoholic beverages subject to taxation, stiff drinks—and all distilled spirits—face the stiffest tax rates. Like many excise taxes, the treatment of distilled spirits varies widely across the states.
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Corporate income taxes are commonly levied as a flat rate on business profits. However, some countries provide reduced corporate income tax rates for small businesses. Out of 27 European OECD countries covered in today’s map, eight levy a reduced corporate tax rate on businesses that have revenues or profits below a certain threshold.
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Krispy Kreme may have started the vaccine incentive ball rolling, but many states are putting big money into the effort with vaccine lotteries. Unlike a normal lottery, no one is paying for tickets—but the tax collector still gets paid when someone wins.
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In recent years, several countries have taken measures to reduce carbon emissions, including instituting environmental regulations, emissions trading systems (ETS), and carbon taxes.
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Although most states are on solid financial footing following the coronavirus crisis, pension liabilities are a deep-seated problem that long predates the pandemic.
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As tempting as inheritance, estate, and gift taxes might look especially when the OECD notes them as a way to reduce wealth inequality, their limited capacity to collect revenue and their negative impact on entrepreneurial activity, savings, and work should make policymakers consider their repeal instead of boosting them.
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Most countries provide tax relief to families with children—typically through targeted tax breaks that lower income taxes. While all European OECD countries provide tax relief for families, its extent varies substantially across countries.
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Thirteen states tax Social Security benefits, a matter of significant interest to retirees. Each of these states has its own approach to determining what share of benefits is subject to tax, though these provisions can be grouped together into a few broad categories.
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Property taxes are an important source of revenue for local and state governments. In FY 2018, property taxes generated over 30 percent of total U.S. state and local tax collections and over 70 percent of local tax collections.
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Governments often justify higher tax burdens with more extensive public services. However, the cost of these services can be more than half of an average worker’s salary.
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New Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) data indicates that the federal tax system is progressive, consistent with similar analysis by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), and the OECD.
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Rightsizing a state’s sales tax base can not only make the tax more equitable and better align it with the modern economy but also generate revenue that can be used to pay down the rates of more harmful taxes. That is why sales tax base broadening, which is favored by public finance scholars across the political spectrum, features in many tax reform plans.
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The taxation of capital—at both the individual and the corporate level—is much debated and affects economic growth by lowering the incentives to save and invest.
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Most countries’ personal income taxes have a progressive structure, meaning that the tax rate paid by individuals increases as they earn higher wages. The highest tax rate individuals pay differs significantly across Europe, with Denmark (55.9 percent), France (55.4 percent), and Austria (55 percent) having the highest top statutory personal income tax rates among European OECD countries.
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Location Matters is an account of tax complexity and the ways that tax structure affect competitiveness. For policymakers, it represents an opportunity to explore the seemingly more arcane tax provisions that can have a significant impact on business tax burdens, and to discover how their tax code—often completely by accident—picks winners and losers.
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Under President Biden’s tax plan, the United States would tax corporate income at the highest top rate in the industrialized world, averaging 65.1 percent.
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Estate tax is levied on the property of the deceased and is paid by the estate itself. Inheritance taxes, in contrast, are only levied on the value of assets transferred and are paid by the heirs. Gift taxes are levied when property is transferred by a living individual. The majority of European countries covered in today’s map currently levy estate, inheritance, or gift taxes.
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