Tracking the Impact of the Trump Tariffs & Trade War
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
56 min readThe Tax Foundation is the world’s leading independent tax policy 501(c)(3) nonprofit. For over 85 years, our mission has remained the same: to improve lives through tax policies that lead to greater economic growth and opportunity.
Our Center for Federal Tax Policy, Center for State Tax Policy, and Center for Global Tax Policy each produce timely and high-quality research and analysis that influences the debate toward economically principled tax policies. Our experts are continuously analyzing the day’s most relevant tax policy topics and are relied upon routinely for presentations, testimony, and media appearances on tax issues spanning every level of government.
Likewise, providing journalists, taxpayers, and policymakers with basic data on taxes and spending has been a cornerstone of the Tax Foundation’s educational mission since its founding. As we wrote in our first edition of Facts & Figures in 1941, “Facts give a broader perspective; facts dissipate predilections and prejudices…[and are] an important step to meet the challenge presented by the broad problems of public finance.”
The Trump tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade balance and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $700 in 2026.
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How will recent federal tax changes affect you?
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The State Tax Competitiveness Index enables policymakers, taxpayers, and business leaders to gauge how their states’ tax systems compare. While there are many ways to show how much state governments collect in taxes, the Index evaluates how well states structure their tax systems and provides a road map for improvement.
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Lawmakers can constrain the growth of property taxes without creating new problems. But the details matter.
Our experts explain how this major tax legislation may affect you and how policymakers can better improve the tax code.
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For Congress, work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is done. But in state capitols, the work has not yet begun. Many of the tax changes in the federal reconciliation act flow through to state tax codes—automatically in some states, and subject to an update in states’ Internal Revenue Code conformity date in others.
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As a rule, an individual’s income can be taxed both by the state in which the taxpayer resides and by the state in which the taxpayer’s income is earned.
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Notably, the OBBBA makes permanent the individual tax changes first put in place by the TCJA, which avoids a tax hike on an estimated 62 percent of tax filers in 2026.
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Facts & Figures serves as a one-stop state tax data resource that compares all 50 states on over 40 measures of tax rates, collections, burdens, and more.
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While there are many factors that affect a country’s economic performance, taxes play an important role. A well-structured tax code is easy for taxpayers to comply with and can promote economic development while raising sufficient revenue for a government’s priorities.
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New IRS data shows the US federal income tax system continues to be progressive as high-income taxpayers pay the highest average income tax rates. Average tax rates for all income groups remain lower after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
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The variety of approaches to taxation among European countries creates a need to evaluate these systems relative to each other. For that purpose, we have developed the European Tax Policy Scorecard—a relative comparison of European countries’ tax systems.
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Taking into account central and subcentral taxes, Portugal has the highest corporate tax rate in Europe at 31.5 percent, followed by Germany and Italy at 29.8 percent and 27.8 percent, respectively
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While many factors influence business location and investment decisions, sales taxes are something within policymakers’ control that can have immediate impacts.
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The EU countries with the highest standard VAT rates are Hungary (27 percent), Croatia, Denmark, and Sweden (all at 25 percent). Luxembourg levies the lowest standard VAT rate at 16 percent, followed by Malta (18 percent), Cyprus, Germany, and Romania (all at 19 percent).
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The latest IRS data shows that the U.S. federal individual income tax continued to be progressive, borne primarily by the highest income earners.
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New Jersey levies the highest top statutory corporate tax rate at 11.5 percent, followed by Minnesota (9.8 percent) and Illinois (9.50 percent). Alaska and Pennsylvania levy top statutory corporate tax rates of 9.40 percent and 8.99 percent, respectively.
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Value-added taxes (VAT) make up approximately one-fifth of total tax revenues in Europe. However, European countries differ significantly in how efficiently they raise VAT revenues. One way to measure a country’s VAT efficiency is the VAT Gap.
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Newly published data from the CBO indicates in 2019, before the onset of the pandemic, American incomes continued to rise as part of a broad economic expansion. It also shows that, contrary to common perceptions, the federal tax system is progressive.
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Since VAT revenues are such a significant and stable contributor to overall government revenues, EU policymakers should pay particular attention to how efficiently those revenues are raised.
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The pandemic has accelerated changes to the way we live and work, making it far easier for people to move—and they have. As states work to maintain their competitive advantage, they should pay attention to where people are moving, and try to understand why.
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While the wireless market has become increasingly competitive in recent years, resulting in steady declines in the average price for wireless services, the price reduction for consumers has been partially offset by higher taxes.
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New CBO data shows that the current U.S. fiscal system—both taxes and direct federal benefits—is very progressive and very redistributive.
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A new report shows that corporate tax rates around the world continue to level off. “We aren’t seeing a race to the bottom, we’re seeing a race toward the middle,” said Sean Bray, EU policy analyst at the Tax Foundation.
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People respond to incentives. As tax rates increase or products are banned from sale, consumers and producers search for ways around these penalties and restrictions.
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All corporate income taxes fall on capital investment, but the structure should not make matters worse, and policymakers should take care not to distort investment decisions through the use of targeted incentives for select firms or activities instead of a lower rate for all businesses.
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France’s individual income tax system is the least competitive among OECD countries. France’s top marginal tax rate of 45.9 percent is applied at 14.7 times the average national income. Additionally, a 9.7 surtax is applied to those at the upper end of the income distribution. Capital gains and dividends are both taxed at comparably high top rates of 34 percent.
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Recreational marijuana taxation is one of the hottest policy issues in the U.S. Currently, 19 states have implemented legislation to legalize and tax recreational marijuana sales.
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While supporters of the federal estate tax may be correct that only a fraction of estate tax returns eventually pays the estate tax, IRS data shows that it disproportionately impacts estates tied to successful privately owned businesses. Thus, it acts as a second or third layer of federal tax on these successful businesses over the owners’ lifetime.
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According to the corporate tax component of the 2022 International Tax Competitiveness Index, Latvia and Estonia have the best corporate tax systems in the OECD.
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The IRS recently released the new inflation adjusted 2023 tax brackets and rates. Explore updated credits, deductions, and exemptions, including the standard deduction & personal exemption, Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT), Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), Child Tax Credit (CTC), capital gains brackets, qualified business income deduction (199A), and the annual exclusion for gifts.
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IRS and Census data show that people and businesses favor states with low and structurally sound tax systems, which can impact the state’s economic growth and governmental coffers.
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