Trump Tariffs: Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War
The tariffs amount to an average tax increase of nearly $1,200 per US household in 2025.
33 min read
Expert
Erica York
Vice President of Federal Tax Policy
Erica York is Vice President of Federal Tax Policy with Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy. She previously worked as an auditor at a large community bank in Kansas and interned at Tax Foundation’s Center for State Tax Policy.
Her analysis has been featured in The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Politico, and other national and international media outlets. She holds a master’s degree in Economics from Wichita State University and an undergraduate degree in Business Administration and Economics from Sterling (KS) College, where she is currently an adjunct professor. Erica lives in Kansas with her husband and their two children.
Latest Work
Budget Reconciliation: Tracking the 2025 Trump Tax Cuts
Our experts are providing the latest details and analysis of proposed federal tax policy changes.
10 min read
“Big Beautiful Bill” House GOP Tax Plan: Preliminary Details and Analysis
Our preliminary analysis finds the tax provisions included in the May 12 text would increase long-run GDP by 0.6 percent and reduce federal tax revenue by $4.0 trillion from 2025 through 2034 on a conventional basis before added interest costs.
7 min read
What Happens If Social Security Runs Out in 2035?
What happens when the country’s most important retirement program runs out of money? Social Security faces a funding crisis by 2035. We unpack how the system works, why it’s in trouble, and what fixes could keep it afloat.
How Will Trump’s Current Tariffs Compare with Extending His 2017 Individual Tax Cuts?
The tariff policies already in effect threaten to offset the benefits of the promised tax cuts.
2 min read
Five Things To Know About Trump’s Income Tax and Tariff Idea
President Trump has repeatedly floated the idea of entirely replacing the federal income tax with new tariffs. Recently, he has said that when tariff revenues come in, he will use them to replace or substantially cut income taxes for people making under $200,000.
8 min read
How Much Revenue Can Tariffs Really Raise for the Federal Government?
Could tariffs, a form of government finance heavily relied upon in the 18th and 19th centuries, function as a major source of revenue for a modern, developed economy in the 21st century?
16 min read
The Truth About Tariffs—Fact-Checking Trump’s Trade Claims
Do tariffs really level the playing field, or are they just bad economics? In this emergency episode, we fact-check the Trump administration’s claims that retaliatory tariffs make trade fairer.
The Global Tax Deal, Tax Cuts, and Tariffs—5 Major Tax Debates
What are the biggest tax stories shaping policy today—and what do they mean for you? In our 100th episode, we break down the five biggest tax stories, from the global tax deal to the looming expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
Time (or Buying American) Won’t Erase the Economic Harm of Higher Tariffs
Contrary to the president’s promises, the tariffs will cause short-term pain and long-term pain, no matter the ways people and businesses change their behavior.
5 min read
Learning from the First Trade War: Retaliation Hurts US Exporters
As we learned in the first trade war, retaliation will exact harm on US exporters by lowering their export sales—and the US-imposed tariffs will directly harm exporters too. US-imposed tariffs can burden exporters by increasing input costs, which acts like a tax on exports.
4 min read
Understanding the Property Tax
With property tax bills on the rise, homeowners are searching for answers—and some even want to abolish the tax altogether. In this episode, we break down why property taxes are increasing, common but flawed solutions, and why the property tax remains an economically efficient revenue source.
Overview of the Tax Foundation’s General Equilibrium Model
The Tax Foundation uses and maintains a General Equilibrium Model, known as our Taxes and Growth (TAG) Model to simulate the effects of government tax and spending policies on the economy and on government revenues and budgets.
9 min read
Making the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Permanent: Economic, Revenue, and Distributional Effects
Permanently extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would boost long-run economic output by 1.1 percent, the capital stock by 0.7 percent, wages by 0.5 percent, and hours worked by 847,000 full-time equivalent jobs.
6 min read
Tax Policy and the US Economy: Enhancements to Our Modeling Framework
The Tax Foundation models tax policy using our proprietary Taxes and Growth model, illustrating the economic, revenue, and distributional impacts of different changes to the federal tax code. We’ve recently implemented improvements to the model that have been underway for the past several years, and we will be detailing them further in our forthcoming model methodology update.
4 min read
The European VAT is Not a Discriminatory Tax Against US Exports
The Trump administration appears to be moving in a “reciprocal” policy direction despite the significant negative economic consequences for American consumers of across-the-board tariffs on goods coming into the US. However, the EU’s VAT system should not be used as a justification for retaliatory tariffs.
6 min read
Trump’s Tariff War Returns
Are tariffs making everything more expensive? With Trump’s new tariff plans hitting $1.1 trillion in imports—far more than his first term—prices could rise for businesses and consumers alike.
Expensing: It Pays to Be Permanent
As lawmakers work through the reconciliation process, permanently enacting improvements to deductions for capital investment and research and development (R&D) costs will create an economically powerful package.
8 min read
Will Your Taxes Go Up? Best- and Worst-case Scenarios for Tax Reform in 2025
What will the future of tax policy look like? In this episode, we dive into the critical challenges and opportunities looming on the horizon, especially with major tax cuts set to expire, which could increase taxes for 62 percent of filers.
The Unsustainable US Debt Course and Impacts of Potential Tax Changes
Given the poor state of the budget process and worsening debt trajectory, lawmakers should move boldly and quickly to address the issue, including via a fiscal commission process. Issues to consider should include reforms to both spending and taxes.
42 min read