Trump Tariffs: Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War
The tariffs amount to an average tax increase of nearly $1,200 per US household in 2025.
33 min read
All Related Articles
Budget Reconciliation: Tracking the 2025 Trump Tax Cuts
Our experts are providing the latest details and analysis of proposed federal tax policy changes.
10 min read
“Big Beautiful Bill” House GOP Tax Plan: Preliminary Details and Analysis
Our preliminary analysis finds the tax provisions included in the May 12 text would increase long-run GDP by 0.6 percent and reduce federal tax revenue by $4.0 trillion from 2025 through 2034 on a conventional basis before added interest costs.
7 min read
Balls and Strikes on American Manufacturing: What Are the Facts?
Catastrophic rhetoric about US manufacturing is not justified. The tariffs are extremely counterproductive. Still, all is not well in the US manufacturing sector. What should we do?
7 min read
How Will Trump’s Current Tariffs Compare with Extending His 2017 Individual Tax Cuts?
The tariff policies already in effect threaten to offset the benefits of the promised tax cuts.
2 min read
Five Things To Know About Trump’s Income Tax and Tariff Idea
President Trump has repeatedly floated the idea of entirely replacing the federal income tax with new tariffs. Recently, he has said that when tariff revenues come in, he will use them to replace or substantially cut income taxes for people making under $200,000.
8 min read
No Tax on Tips and Overtime Proposals Gain Steam Across States, but Remain a Bad Idea
The trend of tax exemptions on tips, overtime, and bonuses may sound like a win for workers, but it is a shortsighted fix with long-term drawbacks.
11 min read
How Much Revenue Can Tariffs Really Raise for the Federal Government?
Could tariffs, a form of government finance heavily relied upon in the 18th and 19th centuries, function as a major source of revenue for a modern, developed economy in the 21st century?
16 min read
Trump’s Reciprocal Tariff Calculations Are Nonsense, Will Punish Mutually Beneficial Trade
Despite characterizing the tariffs as “reciprocal,” the White House didn’t actually measure tariffs, currency manipulation, or trade barrier policies employed by other countries. Instead, it drew its estimates from something else entirely: bilateral trade deficits in goods.
7 min read
How Will President Trump’s Tariffs Affect the Value of the Dollar?
President Trump has announced that new tariffs will go into effect on April 2, following several weeks of threats. These new tariffs are likely to be broader in scope than the limited ones implemented thus far. So who is likely to pay for them?
7 min read
Discrimination vs. Neutrality: A Case Study in the Middle of a Trade War
Policymakers should aim for neutral tax policies that support stable revenues like VATs and avoid inviting trade conflicts with discriminatory and economically harmful policies like DSTs.
6 min read
Time (or Buying American) Won’t Erase the Economic Harm of Higher Tariffs
Contrary to the president’s promises, the tariffs will cause short-term pain and long-term pain, no matter the ways people and businesses change their behavior.
5 min read
Learning from the First Trade War: Retaliation Hurts US Exporters
As we learned in the first trade war, retaliation will exact harm on US exporters by lowering their export sales—and the US-imposed tariffs will directly harm exporters too. US-imposed tariffs can burden exporters by increasing input costs, which acts like a tax on exports.
4 min read
Picking the Right Budgetary Offsets Key to Tax Reform Success
In a perilous economic and fiscal environment, with instability created by Trump’s trade war and publicly held debt on track to surpass the highest levels ever recorded within five years, a lot rides on how Republicans navigate tax and spending reforms in reconciliation.
6 min read
The Latest on the Global Tax Agreement
The agreement represents a major change for tax competition, and many countries will be rethinking their tax policies for multinationals. If there is no agreement on changes to Pillar Two or digital services taxes, retaliatory American tariffs could be on the horizon.
8 min read
Who Pays Tariffs? Americans Will Bear the Costs of the Next Trade War
Rather than hurting foreign exporters, the economic evidence shows American firms and consumers were hardest hit by tariffs imposed during President Trump’s first-term.
5 min read
The European VAT is Not a Discriminatory Tax Against US Exports
The Trump administration appears to be moving in a “reciprocal” policy direction despite the significant negative economic consequences for American consumers of across-the-board tariffs on goods coming into the US. However, the EU’s VAT system should not be used as a justification for retaliatory tariffs.
6 min read
Trump’s Tariff War Returns
Are tariffs making everything more expensive? With Trump’s new tariff plans hitting $1.1 trillion in imports—far more than his first term—prices could rise for businesses and consumers alike.
Will Your Taxes Go Up? Best- and Worst-case Scenarios for Tax Reform in 2025
What will the future of tax policy look like? In this episode, we dive into the critical challenges and opportunities looming on the horizon, especially with major tax cuts set to expire, which could increase taxes for 62 percent of filers.
Five Things to Know About Trump’s Global Minimum Tax Order
This week, the incoming Trump administration issued a day-one executive order on the global minimum tax agreement known as Pillar Two, which seeks to ensure multinational corporations pay at least 15 percent in income tax.
6 min read