Our preliminary analysis finds the tax provisions increase long-run GDP by 0.8 percent and reduce federal tax revenue by $4.0 trillion from 2025 through 2034 on a conventional basis before added interest costs.
9 min read
The House’s “Big Beautiful Bill” increased senior deduction would deliver a larger tax cut to lower-middle- and middle-income households compared to exempting all Social Security benefits from taxation, and would not weaken the trust funds. But given the temporary nature of the policy, it would increase the deficit-impact of the reconciliation bill without boosting long-run economic growth.
3 min read
The tariffs amount to an average tax increase of nearly $1,200 per US household in 2025.
36 min read
From generous tax breaks to costly trade-offs, the House GOP’s One, Big, Beautiful Bill has a little of everything. It’s a sweeping attempt to extend key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act before they expire in 2026—but what’s actually in it?
It’s been a whirlwind 24 hours in tariff news: first, a trade court blocked Trump’s sweeping new tariffs, calling them executive overreach. Then, a federal appeals court reinstated them—at least for now. We break down what happened, what’s next, and why it matters.
Our experts are providing the latest details and analysis of proposed federal tax policy changes.
11 min read
Republicans have advanced legislation to extend many provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) alongside dozens of new provisions. Any comprehensive tax legislation is going to have its wrinkles, and the “One, Big, Beautiful Bill” is no different.
8 min read
When governments restrict trade—through tariffs and retaliation—no one truly wins.
As the US House hashes out its “One, Big, Beautiful Bill,” statehouse lawmakers are watching closely, given the impact of both its tax and spending provisions on state budgets.
12 min read
Letting the SALT cap slip further upwards would undercut the TCJA’s long-term legacy, worsening the fiscal outlook of the tax package and providing an unneeded benefit to higher earners.
4 min read
While Congress works on the “One, Big, Beautiful Bill” to cut taxes, President Trump has imposed significantly higher taxes by placing tariffs on more than 70 percent of US imports.
2 min read
We break down the House GOP’s One, Big, Beautiful Bill—a sweeping tax package designed to extend key parts of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act before they expire in 2026.
Lawmakers have a prime opportunity to achieve a more stable economy through the debate about the tax code that is now ramping up.
As the current tax package stands, the House’s use of temporary policy is leaving most of the economic growth opportunities on the table.
2 min read
As lawmakers continue to debate the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” they should abandon temporary and complex policy in favor of simplicity and stability.
4 min read
The tax bill prioritizes politics over economic growth, writes Daniel Bunn.
Political popularity isn’t always a reliable gauge of sound policy—and that’s certainly true of President Donald Trump’s idea to eliminate taxes on tips, bonuses, and overtime pay.
The Republican party, led by President Trump, has decided that growth is no longer a priority. This is evident in the president’s trade war, the minimal opposition among Republican members of Congress, and the seemingly endless supply of bad policy ideas that will do little to support growth.
Catastrophic rhetoric about US manufacturing is not justified. The tariffs are extremely counterproductive. Still, all is not well in the US manufacturing sector. What should we do?
7 min read
President Trump has repeatedly floated the idea of entirely replacing the federal income tax with new tariffs. Recently, he has said that when tariff revenues come in, he will use them to replace or substantially cut income taxes for people making under $200,000.
8 min read