What The Washington Post Misses About Social Security’s Progressivity
When properly measured, consistent with how we assess progressivity in tax policy, Social Security benefits are progressive.
5 min read
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Four Ways US Bond Markets Affect Tax Revenue
Federal government debt is over $32 trillion, around the size of the nation’s annual economic output (its gross domestic product, or GDP). Debt levels this high mean US borrowing costs are sensitive to interest rate changes that may otherwise seem small.
5 min read
Overview of the Tax Foundation’s General Equilibrium Model
The Tax Foundation uses and maintains a General Equilibrium Model, known as our Taxes and Growth (TAG) Model to simulate the effects of government tax and spending policies on the economy and on government revenues and budgets.
9 min read
Don’t Blame the Messenger—the CBO—for Our Current Fiscal Problems
Publicly held debt is projected to rise to a new record high of 106 percent of GDP within the next four years and continue to rise to 120 percent by 2036 and 175 percent by 2056.
8 min read
The Abandoned Goal of Revenue Neutrality
Revenue-neutral proposals, like many things in politics, have become a relic of the past.
Can Tax Reform Solve the Debt Problem—or Just Slow It?
This study simulates several large tax increases and consistently finds that even tax increases large enough to close the primary deficit in the near term will lose ground over time and fail to put the debt on a sustainable course.
41 min read
After Pandemic Relief Ended, CBO Shows Federal Taxes Remained Progressive in 2022
In 2022, incomes for the bottom 80 percent of earners were slightly lower after taxes and transfers compared to 2020 and 2021, driven by expiring pandemic-era policies.
6 min read
This Tax Season, Ask Where Your Money Is Going
By 2036, more than one out of every four dollars raised in total government revenue will go to pay interest on the debt.
How Does the OBBBA Impact Debt, Deficits, and Tax Revenue?
Our modeling indicates the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) will boost economic growth but increase deficits, leading to record high debt in 2028 that rises to 124 percent of GDP by 2034.
7 min read
Federal Revenue and Distributional Impacts of Limiting the Tax Exclusion for Employer-Sponsored Health Insurance Premiums
Policymakers are considering ways to extend the enhancements made to Affordable Care Act premium tax credits that expire at the end of the year, which could cost $350 billion over the next decade. Any expansion of the credits should be offset by reducing other healthcare subsidies or preferences in the tax code, the largest of which is the exclusion for employer-sponsored health insurance (ESI) premiums, estimated to cost more than $5 trillion over the next decade due to reduced income and payroll tax revenue.
10 min read
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Short FormUnderstanding Debt, Deficits, and Interest
The US national debt is on an unprecedented and unsustainable trajectory that will require ever-greater borrowing and larger interest payments on what is borrowed. These interest payments will, in turn, consume a larger part of the budget, and all Americans will pay the price.
4 min read
Financial Ruin? Why Losing IEEPA Tariff Revenue Won’t Change the Long-Term US Fiscal Trajectory
The US fiscal trajectory is on an unsustainable path over the next 35 years, regardless of whether the IEEPA tariffs are struck down or maintained.
3 min read
State Tax Implications of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act
For Congress, work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is done. But in state capitols, the work has not yet begun. Many of the tax changes in the federal reconciliation act flow through to state tax codes—automatically in some states, and subject to an update in states’ Internal Revenue Code conformity date in others.
39 min read
Will the Big Beautiful Bill Lead to an Economic Boom or Just Modestly Higher Growth?
Lawmakers are right to be concerned about deficits and economic growth. The best path to address those concerns is to ensure OBBB provides permanent full expensing of capital investment, avoids inefficient tax cuts, and offsets remaining revenue losses by closing tax loopholes and reducing spending.
8 min read
Three Corporate Tax Hikes That Would Undermine TCJA’s Improvements to Competitiveness
As lawmakers consider options for budgetary offsets, they should prioritize competitiveness and economic growth, as a heavier corporate tax burden will undermine the core purpose and achievement of the TCJA.
24 min read
House Budget Resolution Aims to Balance Tax Cut and Spending Reduction Goals
The House Budget Committee has released a budget resolution that specifies large reductions in both taxes and spending over the next decade, paving the way to extend the expiring provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and potentially cut other taxes.
6 min read
CBO and JCT Preview Economic Analysis of Extending TCJA
The analysis provides key insights into how their models work and the sort of outputs we can expect from their models as part of next year’s tax debate.
8 min read
All About That Base(line)
If lawmakers are serious about pro-growth policies and fiscal responsibility, they will need to put policies forward that achieve those goals. Simply adjusting the baseline doesn’t reduce actual deficits in the coming years.
7 min read
How 2026 Tax Brackets Would Change if the TCJA Expires
If Congress allows the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) to expire as scheduled, most aspects of the individual income tax would undergo substantial changes, resulting in more than 62 percent of tax filers experiencing tax increases in 2026.
3 min read
Federal Fiscal System Is Very Progressive—and Getting More So—Latest CBO Report Shows (2024 Update)
CBO data shows that the federal fiscal system—both taxes and direct federal benefits—is getting more progressive and redistributive in 2024.
7 min read