State Tax Conformity: Revenue Effects

Following the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, the debate on tax reform has shifted from Washington, D.C., to all fifty states. States incorporate provisions of the federal tax codes into their own codes in varying degrees, meaning that federal tax reform has implications for state revenue.

Because the base-broadening provisions of the new federal tax law often flow through to states, while the corresponding rate reductions do not, most states will experience a revenue increase from federal tax reform – although several states could see decreases, largely due to the new federal pass-through provisions.

States are busy working to quantify the impact to their state budgets from the federal tax changes to ensure they have all the necessary information about their policy choices.

Below we have catalogued each state’s projected revenue impact of federal tax reform. We will update this page as new estimates are released.

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State Overview of Revenue Estimates Revenue Reports
*States have not released official reports, but revenue numbers have been reported in news articles.

Arizona*

Increase in revenue of $236 million in fiscal year 2019.

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Colorado

Increase in revenue of $196.5 million in fiscal year 2018-2019.

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Georgia*

Increase in revenue of $4.7 billion over five years.

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Idaho

Increase in revenue of $97.4 million in fiscal year 2019.

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Iowa*

Increase in revenue of $138 million in fiscal year 2020.

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Louisiana*

Increase in revenue of $226 million in fiscal year 2019.

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Maine

Increase in revenue of $312 million in fiscal year 2019.

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Maryland

Increase in revenue of $361 million in fiscal year 2019.

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Minnesota

Increase in revenue of $814 million in fiscal year 2019.

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Montana*

Decrease in revenue of of $46 million in fiscal year 2018. Montana’s revenue projections have been disputed.

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Nebraska*

Increase in revenue of $220 million this year.

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New York

Increase in revenue of $1.1 billion in fiscal year 2019.

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Oregon

Decrease in revenue of $40 million in fiscal year 2019. Excluding the pass-through provision would result in an increase in revenue of $151 million.

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Pennsylvania

Increase in revenue of $340 million in fiscal year 2018-2019.

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South Carolina

Increase in revenue of $205 million in fiscal year 2018-2019.

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Vermont*

Increase in revenue of $30 million in fiscal year 2019.

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Washington

Increase in revenue of $85 million in fiscal year 2018.

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Related Resources

Tax Reform Moves to the States: State Revenue Implications and Reform Opportunities Following Federal Tax Reform

States Estimating Revenue Increases from Federal Tax Bill; Montana One Exception So Far